[Jon Q Phenomenon]

Ok, now that i've settled into the grind of pouring over the infinite number of stats and trends that accompany the capping of bases and met with some success and more failure, I've decided to return to my 1st year experiment and work on a chase system.

The system will take into account a short list of simple matchup stats for upcoming series, looking most closely at bullpens and hitting while keeping an eye on the starting pitching matchups for the duration of the series.

All of my plays will be on a unit basis so any who decide to tail or fade can do so on their own terms adjusting real dollar bet sizes accordingly. All series will begin with the goal to win one unit, and unit $$$ value will increase at a time to be determined later, (after a streak of wins obviously,) but seeing as I plan to have each unit equal 5% of my bankroll i'm looking to increase unit size by 2.5% once the bankroll has increased by 50%. These are just rough #'s of course and I will change bet size at a time where it feels comfortable, most likely erring on the side of BR safety.

I'm looking to make this slow and conservative so let's see what we can do. As well these picks will not cross series, I will not continue chasing a team just because I don't want the blemish on the record or don't want to take the $ loss. Again all plays will stay within their respective series.

So as not to clutter up my sig which has precious little room anyways, my previous records from the failed sides and parlays thread i had were

2010 MLB 67-69-1(-44u) 49.2%

Parlays 0-11(-15u) 0%

Not good i know, but i got kind of crazy with unit sizing towards the end so that had an impact on the amount down i was. No biggie tho as I've said before, this is merely a year of learning for me so I'm still settling in to where my strengths in capping are (if i have any) and looking to plug the leaks.

On with the plays guys


Tuesday 6/15

Yankees -125 -- 1.25u / 1u

Rockies +137 -- .73u / 1u

Rangers +140 -- .71u / 1u


Odd choices I know, but these are the only 3 series that made all the cuts so I'm feeling confident with them.

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

Tuesday 6/15

Yankees -125 -- 1.25u / 1u

Rockies +137 -- .73u / 1u

Rangers +140 -- .71u / 1u

Cashed 2 with 1 pending .....let's close this one out tomorrow

Wednesday 6/16

Rockies +130 -- 1.33u / 1.73u

Had a good night in my regular side plays tonight too so i'm feelin good....hopefully i'll shut the door on the pending series tomorrow....hope everyone had a good night.....

[Brian891]

good luck jonq! Tailingya and wish you the best!

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

Thanks brian, i've got a good feeling about this system...there's bound to be a bump or two along the way but i'm confident in the filters and i see $$$ in our futures bro...

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

Wednesday 6/16

Rockies +130 -- 1.33u / 1.73u

Oh well, would've been nice to have some help from the bats for christ's sake, 13k's....brutal.

If I have to go to a final game bet tho i like my chances with Ubaldo....just have to hope the O wakes up....Feeling good about sewin this one up tomorrow.


Thursday 6/17

Rockies -120 -- 3.67u / 3.06u

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

Thursday 6/17

Rockies -120 -- 3.67u / 3.06u

Hell yeah, I didn't like the sweat until the third game in this one but with Ubaldo I had little doubt, he was my insurance policy for this +ev series (free juice the first two games). I guess I was a little spoiled with the other 2 series cashing on the first game....

I have another wrinkle or two I might add to my filtering process later on down the road to trim the fat if need be, but we'll see how it goes.....

As for now, congrats to the 1 or 2 who might've tailed me. I'll be getting to Friday's series up later tonight, now it's off to the gym and and to crackin some beers.

GL on your plays today guys

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

helluva NBA game 7 goin on....glad I backed off of it and i can just sit back and enjoy it.......

starting to go over Friday's new series now, hope everyone cashed some winners today....

new series picks up within the hour

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

ok, here we go guys....all the brita bullshit is outta the way, I had some strong leans on the Braves and my Tigers but they fell just shy of making the cut....might dig a little deeper tomorrow......

These 3 however, passed with flying colors

Indians -110 -- 1.1u / 1u

Giants +110 -- .91u / 1u

Rangers -135 -- 1.35u / 1u

Let's keep this system rollin

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

Indians-110 -- 1.1u / 1u

Giants +110 -- .91u / 1u

Rangers -135 -- 1.35u / 1u

Well we cashed the first 2 with ease ....only problem is I just now got internet back (thanks verizion for sucking so bad) therefore I was unable to make the "B" bet on the Giants today.....Dunno really how to move going forward because of this...the only way i can see to reconcile would be to carry over one game into their next series...

I know one of my rules at the outset was not to cross series and I will not, however this is sort of a funny circumstance.....so since no one is really following this anyways and it would be inaccurate for me to post a loss that I never incurred, I will carry this chase one game into the Houston series if need be. It's really the only thing i can think to do. If anyone has any ideas on a way to resolve this better please post and lemme know cuz i'm open for suggestions....

thanks again verizon for your "outage in the 540 area code" anyways hope you guys had a good day and here's tomorrow's bet.

Sunday 6/20

Giants +120 -- 1.59u / 1.91u

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

Sunday 6/20

Giants +120 -- 1.59u / 1.91u

Cash it boys.... and that closes the chase on the third series.....building some confidence with this simple little system and glad it closed properly. I didnt have to compensate for yesterday's missed play by dragging it further....hope everyone had a good father's day with the fam and with the books.

I'll take a look at tomorrow's 3 and and the 12 series that start up on tuesday later on tonight after the game.....

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

Only 2 series spit out for the upcoming ones starting today and tomorrow....

The Rangers and the Twins were the only ones to pass....The Giants were really close once again as were the Tigers, I might dig a little deeper with these two teams but as it stands now they'll be no-plays. I'm looking into the Fish and the O's series as well.

I'll have the official plays posted later on tonight or tomorrow....

GL today for those of you playing the small card

[VegasPlayer]

Good to see ya puttin it out there JohnQ. TEX & MIN made the cut with me also. GL

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

Thanks for the support VP glad you dropped by to check out the thread....always good to hear from someone more established

It'd be nice if I could get a better handle on the Tigers, Giants, and the Marlins series but seeing as they're not quite there I guess I should pass, no need to push for series plays

BOL in your plays man and let's cash these two series.....

[doublej95]

Giants and Marlins are stronger plays than the Tigers by my numbers. In order of strongest match ups for away teams on Tuesday: Twins Marlins Giants Red Soxs then the Tigers.

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

Giants and Marlins are stronger plays than the Tigers by my numbers. In order of strongest match ups for away teams on Tuesday: Twins Marlins Giants Red Soxs then the Tigers.

Thanks for the input doublej, always appreciate what you guys are finding. I'll probably pull the trigger on the fish. The only reason I haven't is I wanted this thread to stick strictly with what my ghetto filters pulled out, and like i said before the Twinkies and Rangers were the only ones cleared. However it's hard to deny that my old childhood O's are pretty much an autofade at this point.

Official picks are the Rangers and Twins. I'll make the decision about Florida when I post the lines and unit risks either later on tonight or tomorrow.....

[handicapper03]

Another Chase System...GL with it.

[doublej95]

Thanks for the input doublej, always appreciate what you guys are finding. I'll probably pull the trigger on the fish. The only reason I haven't is I wanted this thread to stick strictly with what my ghetto filters pulled out, and like i said before the Twinkies and Rangers were the only ones cleared. However it's hard to deny that my old childhood O's are pretty much an autofade at this point.

Official picks are the Rangers and Twins. I'll make the decision about Florida when I post the lines and unit risks either later on tonight or tomorrow.....

I have been tracking/working on a system of mine for awhile now and it has been doing well for its self but I still mainly play G's system and some of my super strong plays. I will brake down the away teams on Tuesday's games for you based on my numbers Twins 49, Marlins 47, Giants 35, Red Soxs 28, Tigers 25. OK for the past two months these are the records based on the numbers.

#0-10 8-0
#10-20 5-2
#20-30 10-1
#30-40 8-0
#40-50 3-0
#50+ 5-0


So by my numbers I think the Twins, Marlins and Giants stand a good chance of winning a game.

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

I have been tracking/working on a system of mine for awhile now and it has been doing well for its self but I still mainly play G's system and some of my super strong plays. I will brake down the away teams on Tuesday's games for you based on my numbers Twins 49, Marlins 47, Giants 35, Red Soxs 28, Tigers 25. OK for the past two months these are the records based on the numbers.

#0-10 8-0
#10-20 5-2
#20-30 10-1
#30-40 8-0
#40-50 3-0
#50+ 5-0


So by my numbers I think the Twins, Marlins and Giants stand a good chance of winning a game.

Wow, that's some impressive legwork on your #'s there doublej, looks like you've been busy making $$$, especially if you compound your plays with G's....

I suppose I'll be going a little against my earlier intention of playing only those that pass my filters, i figure you, G, and the shitty O's can't be wrong.

as always BOL with your plays.

[doublej95]

I wish I would have played all the 30+ series, I usually like to just play home teams and only the very strongest Away teams. But juice is getting very high on the home teams I might start betting more away teams. As for tonight I have the Yankees # @55 so that is a very strong play. Tomorrow only two home teams I like Rangers and Phillies.

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

i hear ya....i was flirting with dropping a unit or 2 on the yanks RL tonight but I don't trust Burnett....

as for those 30+ series man, waddya waitin for...i know the juice and unit #'s can get pretty gross if you have to go deep in a chase but it looks like your #'s speak for themselves....hammer those plays homie....

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

my distrust in AJ the gas can was correct, glad i stayed away from him

[doublej95]

Yes he has been bad of late 0-3, 9.00 ERA

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

still pullin for ya doublej, i threw some SBR points on the yank ml so i do have a little rooting interest

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

ok here we go guys....the lines are up on the dog so i'll go ahead and post the plays for tomorrow's series.

as previously stated the Twins and Rangers passed through with ease and were to be my only plays, however the Marlins were so close that I figure I can make the Orioles my extra credit filter and will go ahead and have a play on the fish too....

it's going to be hard to swallow the chalk on the Rangers, so much so that I might consider a -1RL on more than -200 plays in the future....we'll see though, as it stands now it'll be all ML at a unit.....


Tuesday 6/22

Twins -130 -- 1.3u / 1u

Marlins -135 -- 1.35.u / 1u

Rangers -250 -- 2.5u / 1u

[doublej95]

Good luck with your plays. I'm on the Marlins and Rangers also

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

Tuesday 6/22

Twins -130 -- 1.3u / 1u

Marlins -135 -- 1.35.u / 1u

Rangers -250 -- 2.5u / 1u

Cashed 2 with 1 pending guys....seems to be my M.O. with each series so far mirroring this. Let's hope I buck the trend tho and we don't have to wait until game 3 to cash the last one......

Marlins were silly in the second half of their game as were the Rangers, just enough to get it done....I also had the Rangers -1.5 tonight since I'm also following the "system integrity" thread guys and playing the RL on each nights biggest fav....

Now let's hope the kings of hot and cold play, the twins, can do something with Liriano facing Parra tomorrow...I'd rather end it there then have to wait until game 3 and face the closest thing the Brew Crew has as an ace in Gallardo....

hope everyone cashed some winners tonight...


Wednesday 6/23

Twins -145 -- 3.33u / 2.3u

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

Ok, we're still pending on the Twins series, but just as a little aside to break up the monotony, I just cashed on a little fun side play that I think I may start to track.....Going forward just for shits and giggles I'll post a 1 unit play on the "No" side of the "Run scored in the 1st inning" prop for the day's lowest O/U total on the board. Today it was the Cubs and Mariners, it cashed so I'll add that tagline to my siggy and see where we go with it.....It's always good to add a little to the mix when doing the chase systems.....

Go Twins.

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

Wednesday 6/23

Twins -145 -- 3.33u / 2.3u

Well I suppose it would only be right that I have to chase one series to a third game, the other two series played thus far have followed the same pattern. So here we go lookin to the Twins to wake those bats up, silence the Brewers offense, and close this one up this afternoon...

Thursday 6/24

Twins +150 -- 3.75u / 5.63u

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

and as promised, my squarish little 1st inning system will have a play again today on the M's and Cubs

Thursday 6/24

Cubs/Mariners -- 1st Inning Run Scored "No" -165 -- 1.65u / 1u

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

Well there will be losses in this and any chase system....just didn't see the twins layin an egg against the worst home team of all time...i'm confident in the filtering process though and we'll see profit once the season comes to a close.....hopefully the twins can wake up...

anyways, the 1st inning prop came through again for a unit so not all's lost....

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

Thanks Twins, way to suck.... oh well losses will happen, we just gotta roll on.....

Here's what spit out for the series starting Friday


Friday 6/25

A's -180 -- 1.8u / 1u

Brewers -160 -- 1.6u / 1u

Rangers -320 -- 3.2u / 1u

Nats -115 -- 1.15u / 1u

Rays -210 -- 2.1u / 1u

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

and as promised, the one unit play for the 1st inning prop is on the Angels and Rockies today



Friday 6/25

Rockies/Angels 1st Inning Run Scored "No" -155 -- 1.55u / 1u

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

Friday 6/25

A's -180 -- 1.8u / 1u

Brewers -160 -- 1.6u / 1u

Rangers -320 -- 3.2u / 1u

Nats -115 -- 1.15u / 1u

Rays -210 -- 2.1u / 1u



Friday 6/25

Rockies/Angels 1st Inning Run Scored "No" -155 -- 1.55u / 1u


Saturday 6/26

Rangers -280 -- 11.76u / 4.2u

Nats -122 -- 2.62u / 2.15u

Rays -220 -- 6.82u / 3.1u

Ok, that should have us updated through today.....up early for work so i didnt get a chance to post......

So pissed at the Nats, two days in a row against the awful O's, two big blown leads, and here we are, going into a C bet tomorrow, this thing should've been closed last night....oh well we soldier on boys....

Also no 1st inning prop tonight, didn't get it in in time but it wouldve been on the Marlins/Pads so I'll watch from the sideline and see what comes.....

Hope everyone had a good day at the books, I'll post tomorrow's Nats play later tonight or early tomorrow.....siggy and spreadsheet up to date

[Jon Q Phenomenon]

way to go nats.....blow 6 run, 5 run, and 3 run leads in consecutive days to one of the worst teams in baseball over the last 10 or 20 years....brutal shit yo......well it looks like i have some tweaking to do to the old simple system...which is no big deal, this year is all about me finding what works and what doesn't....from now on no more teams below .500.....


Sunday 6/27

Nats Even -- 4.77u / 4.77u

Congrats to those who faded and condolences to those tailed....hope everyone cashed some tickets today

[doublej95]

you got to lay off teams that both have losing records in chase's. Yes the Nats was a stronger team by my numbers but a losing team and a losing team on the road. Anything can happen in those series.