[Grind-It-Out]

After discussions last night, I changed the goal from 50k to 10k. Hugely different, but also hugely more likely. Here we go.

• Day 1
• Current Bankroll: $1,000
• Goal Bankroll: $10,000
• r: 0.0098
• Necessary expected win: $9.80

r = (P/C)^(1/n)-1
P = 10,000
C = 1,000
n = 236
Necessary expected win = r * c

Day 1 will be a 4 team parlay, with odds of 11.01-1. I locked mine in at 5Dimes. I would recommend either 5Dimes or BetJamaica for American players.

I can confirm that 5Dimes offers true odds for 4 teamers. Be sure to check your own book before placing the bet if you are using someone else.

Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 5/9/10 2:05pm MLB Baseball 919 Toronto Blue Jays/Chicago White Sox Over 8 -115* (R Romero - L must Start G Floyd - R must Start)
Pending 5/9/10 2:10pm MLB Baseball 922 Minnesota Twins -146* vs Baltimore Orioles (B Matusz - L must Start N Blackburn - R must Start)
Pending 5/9/10 4:10pm MLB Baseball 927 Los Angeles Angels -108* vs Seattle Mariners (E Santana - R must Start J Vargas - L must Start)
Pending 5/9/10 8:05pm MLB Baseball 929 New York Yankees -102* vs Boston Red Sox (A Burnett - R must Start J Lester - L must Start)

I am estimating that we win the Sox bet 58% of the time, the Twins bet 67% of the time, the Yanks bet 58% of the time and the Angels bet 56% of the time. This makes our odds of winning the parlay .58*.67*.58*.56 = 12.62%.

.1262(11.01) - .8738 = .51562

So, .51562 is the amount we expect to win for every dollar bet (parlays are cool, huh).

9.8/.51562 = $19.01

So, you should be making a $19.01 bet on the above parlay.

Good luck!

[ebbearsfb1]

good luck this definitely looks do-able just hope even if you hit a rough patch you'll follow it through

[ebbearsfb1]

willl you be doing only parlays ???

[Rush]

damn Ebbear, you got a lot of points! Don't be greedy help the needy!



Catchy ain't it

[hels]

I don't think you mentioned how much you're putting down on this parlay

[Rush]

Thank you hope you have a good mothers day

[Grind-It-Out]

willl you be doing only parlays ???

Mostly parlays, as they have higher +EV, but not exclusively.

[Grind-It-Out]

I don't think you mentioned how much you're putting down on this parlay

$19.01 - it's at the very bottom of the post

[LostBankroll]

Good Luck with this.

[Grind-It-Out]

Thanks guys.

[ebbearsfb1]

you should put what it wins too.. for me i did 20 to win 195

[Grind-It-Out]

Will do in future posts. I did put that 11.01 was the payout, but I didn't multiply that out.

Today is $19.01 to win $209.30.

[himeshforex]

hello grind it out .... u ve definately caught our attention here...we will be rooting for you ...but honestly most of us dont understand numbers at your level.... if u can care to elaborate more on the basics of how you reached the numbers ..it would get us more interested and maybe we can add more inputs .... regardless of that all the best and hope u reach ur target

[Grind-It-Out]

hello grind it out .... u ve definately caught our attention here...we will be rooting for you ...but honestly most of us dont understand numbers at your level.... if u can care to elaborate more on the basics of how you reached the numbers ..it would get us more interested and maybe we can add more inputs .... regardless of that all the best and hope u reach ur target

Thanks.

Starting tomorrow I'll post the play and the amount at the very top and then the math below, so people who don't so much care about the math can still follow.

The formula I'm using is just the formula for compounded interest, but I switched it around to solve for r.

Basically you can look at it like this. You have 1k now and you want 10k by December 31st. If you were to spread that out evenly then you would need to win $38 every day. But, it makes more sense to have to win less now when your roll is smaller and more later when your roll is bigger, so this way of doing it just assures that your bet sizes will stay in close proportion to your bankroll.

[himeshforex]

one more question ....why are you starting of with parlays .... do u intend to do parlays all the way or mostly parlays with a few solo plays here and there...

[himeshforex]

if u loose today that would mean that u failed to reached todays target of 9.80.... so tomorrow u may need to be at around 9.80 + 9.90 or something ...approx $20 .... so u intend to do the parlays or whatever play u like until u profit and see where u stand ??

[Grind-It-Out]

Reason for Parlays:
Contrary to popular believe, parlays are not sucker bets. Parlays simply exaggerate your edge. If the house has an edge over you, then parlays will wipe you out more quickly. If you have an edge over the house, your edge becomes multiplied.

In theory, the larger of a parlay we play, the higher our expected value is. The only problem with this is that a lot of books stop offering true odds after the first 3 or 4 teams are put in the parlay.

If we lose a parlay 70% of the time, how does that make sense? Well, over time, that means we will also win 30% of the time. If that holds, then we have the EV we were shooting for. Betting on a multi-team parlay can be very similar to betting on a large underdog. This will allow us to bet, for example, $20 on a game instead of $80, greatly reducing our chance of going bust.

Some guys here at SBR have already laid out the math very nicely, so I'll just redirect those that are interested to their post. Parlays

That being said, there may be individual plays at some point, but mostly parlays.

[Grind-It-Out]

Also, just a heads up... Sticking to the suggested betting amounts is HUGELY important in this system. Today we're making a bet that has huge +EV but we only expect to win one out of every eight times. Betting too much could crush your bankroll quickly.

[Grind-It-Out]

if u loose today that would mean that u failed to reached todays target of 9.80.... so tomorrow u may need to be at around 9.80 + 9.90 or something ...approx $20 .... so u intend to do the parlays or whatever play u like until u profit and see where u stand ??

Nope. The beauty of this system is that if we lose today, then tomorrow's bet will be only very slightly higher. As in, we'll probably be betting to win $10 instead of $9.80. If we win today, then we'll probably be betting to win something like $9.50 or so.

[Grind-It-Out]

The OVER covers for us in 3 innings! Barring a shortened game we will get the value, but either way it can't bust our parlay.

That now brings our odds of winning to 21.76%.

Twinkies game is also looking good. Good news, as the individual games are also important for those of us that aren't strictly doing the parlays.

[ebbearsfb1]

great looking so far....

[Grind-It-Out]

thanks. 2 down. but the last two were just about coinflip games (at least in vegas's eyes), so there's a long way to go.

[Grind-It-Out]

Day 1 ends in a loss.

Starting Bankroll: $1,000;
Current Bankroll: $980.99;
Goal Bankroll: $10,000;
Days Elapsed: 1;
Days Remaining: 235;

Be back tomorrow.

[alub15]

i like it man, good luck! I will deffinately be tailing you

[Grind-It-Out]

Thanks man.

This furthers my belief that SBR members are much smarter than RX members. Guys over there said stuff like "parlays are not +EV, you will lose, just trust me." Over here, people understand that we aren't expected to win everyday. Morons, lol.

[Gary'sTerp2010]

Good luck!! hope u make ur goal!

[Grind-It-Out]

Thanks Terp.

[suckerforparlays]

gl man be rooting for you!

[mvp123]

good luck but i highly doubt you reach your goa;l betting 4 team pars and i love parlays too but you must not be greedy and pick your spots imo gl buddy

[sonnybaby]

lets get it

[John Morrison]

good luck man

[jagaf22]

Good luck GIO!

[Augustus]

good luck

[nbt3428]

Good luck buddy, 10 k is def alot more doable than 50 but still is a challenge. I'll be following

[Regul8er]

Goodluck, but 10K is gonna be ridiculously hard to obtain.