I’m going to attempt to document all of my plays on this forum. My main reason for doing so is selfish. I can get lazy in my analysis after performing all the mundane pre-requisite tasks. In order to address this, if I have a commitment of actually posting my thoughts and rationale every day, I won’t avoid putting my thoughts to paper. A month from now, I want to be able to re-examine what I’m doing and identify weaknesses and fine-tune strengths.
My capping methodology is as follows: I use in-season projections, pitching data from recent games for starters and pens, and 4 different splits to estimate run production per game. (Currently my estimates are on the low side and not comparable for total betting.) I’m also tinkering with tracking over night sides and totals. All of this is very much a work in progress. This is the first year I’ve attempted to quantify run production. Also, I always temper my projected results with common sense. For example, offensive adjustments for the team opposing Tim Lincecum are garbage because that guy is such a force of nature. The same applies to other overwhelmingly dominant pitchers.
I expect to make mistakes. If you see any errors in my logic, please point these out. I will mostly be betting smallish amounts of $100 - $200 this year. Almost all my bets will be with MatchBook for now. I will be funding my 5Dimes account in the relatively near future. Also, I will be using the Eurpean odds system because it’s much more intuitive and easier to manipulate in Excel. If I’m able to show a profit at the end of the season, I may up my bets for next year.
KC/Texas
Greinke has pitched very well this year, but hasn’t received any run support. After starting out on fire, KC’s bats have cooled off. Additionally, Wilson is starting for Texas and KC doesn’t hit my definition of power pitchers very well. Texas is no offensive juggernaut either despite the runs scored yesterday. My Play: Under 7.5 at 1.952, Risk: $100
Tor/Chw
Toronto is streaking, but they don’t hit lefties….at all. Beuhrle struggled against the Yanks and Tampa, but Toronto is not in the same league (figuratively) as those two teams. I got burned yesterday when Toronto only scored two against a lefty and the Sox were unable to put up any runs. Anyways, I’m back for seconds. My Play: White Sox at 1.926, Risk: $200
Bal/Min
Based on recent performance and in-season projections, Millwood will give up anywhere between 2-4 runs over 7 or so innings. Liriano is unhittable by lefties. I hear on ESPN they’re batting .100 with an OBP of .100 against him. However, Baltimore may be showing signs of life and my numbers actually have them favored in this game. I may take them because of the juicy price after I look at their lefty/righty lineup a bit closer. My Play: This game has been PPD. Why?
Det/Cle
According to my numbers, this is a pretty even match-up. Both starters are kinda crappy, but Detroit struggles against lefties and Cleveland is good against righties. Cleveland has an advantage in that they hit well vs. right handed pitching and my definition of finesse pitching. Both bullpens are mediocre. My Play: Cleveland at 1.990, Risk $200
NYY/Bos
Beckett is failing so far this year despite having decent projections still. Although Boston’s bats are alive right now, Hughes is pitching lights out. However, he’s only pitched against light hitting teams. Too many uncertainties here for me to bet either side comfortably. My Play; None
Tampa/Oak
Tampa is streaking after sweeping the offensively challenged Mariners. Both of Oakland’s and Tampa’s pitchers have done well against teams that don’t hit lefties so well. Price also had a quality start vs. the Yanks earlier in the season. That’s enough for me to pull the trigger on Tampa. My Play: Tampa at 1.81, Risk $100
LAA/SEA
Two aces are starting. Even though both had very bad outings their last games, I’ll still go with the under because of how bad these two teams are offensively right now. It will be a shame if Seattle wastes their pitching this year because they can’t score…. My Play: Under 7 at 1.75, Risk $100
Phi/Atl
Philly is home, vs. a finesse pitcher, and is swinging their bats well. Atlanta is without Heyward (pinch hitting excluded) which only serves to compound their offensive woes. Although backing Moyer is scary, I can’t lay off the low price with this Philly team. My Play: Philly at 1.84, Risk $100
Fla/Was
I have no feel for either of these teams. My projected score on this game is 3.0 to 3.2 and the line is basically even. Staying away. My Play: None
STL/PIT
St. Louis just got owned by Philly and their bats have been dead. Carpenter is the right guy for them to get a win without having to hit well. However, Pitt’s bats have been thunderous the last few games. I should’ve jmped on this game earlier before the price adjusted from Pittsburgh 3.15 to 2.69. That’s a major adjustment. My Play: Undecided, but probably none
SF/NYM
Tough game to cap. SF just took 3 from Florida and the Mets seem to have reverted back to their mediocre form after showing signs of life before dropping a couple to Philly and the Reds. The Mets do seem to be significantly better at home, however. Also, Sanchez fits my definition of a power pitcher and the Mets have solids splits vs. them. And SF is my team which makes capping their games even harder. My Play: None
CHC/Cincy
At first glance, I liked Cincy in this relatively even match-up. However, Silva has only had one bad outing while Homer Bailey has been mediocre in almost all of his starts this year. Dusty Baker may have over-used him last year, eh? The Cubs bats are not as good away from home and the line movement favors Cincy, but F--- it, I’m playing the Cubs. My Play: Cubs at 2.2, Risk $100
SD/Hou
Both pitchers seem to close to equal in their projected stats. Norris has gotten rocked his last two outings, but SD has struggled mightily vs. power pitching this year. This is a no-go for me… My Play: None
Mil/Ari
Mixed signals on this one. My numbers show a 2.5 to 2.6 score. If I could’ve gotten Arizona where they opened at 2.26, I probably would’ve taken them despite how bad their bullpen is, but at 2.15 they’re a lot less attractive. Another no play for me… My Play: None
Col/LA
Kuroda is solid and the Rockies aren’t hitting right now. Despite LA’s unimpressive play vs. the Brewers, I’m taking them this game. My Play: Dodgers at 1.633, Risk $200
I’m also playing the Celtics ML at 2.08. They’ve outplayed Cleveland both games so far and LeBron’s elbow will hopefully still be a factor.
GL all! Any comments/suggestions/corrections are welcomed….
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