[Brock Landers]

Didn't realize it was this level of bad

[Brock Landers]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb...db691b9a43f503

[KVB]

When it comes to runs scored they are by far the worst.

When it comes to runs against they are a top 10 team in the league.

If the bats were to heat up, and turn into runs scored, then their expectation of wins would go up a bit, and and get them where they belong.

As of now, believe it or not, winning 19 games with the stats they have is a actually a lit bit of overperforming. A little bit.

They have an offensive problem though, it would appear.

Their average line this season has been about +127, a break even of about 44%, but they've only won 38.8% of the games.

The lines on Detroit have been a bit stingy, they've gotten some good wins. A bettor betting the same unit each game would be down about -7 units so far this year, 6 spots away from the worst in the league, KC which is some -14 or -15 units on the season.

[spippen]

When it comes to runs scored they are by far the worst.

When it comes to runs against they are a top 10 team in the league.

If the bats were to heat up, and turn into runs scored, then their expectation of wins would go up a bit, and and get them where they belong.

As of now, believe it or not, winning 19 games with the stats they have is a actually a lit bit of overperforming. A little bit.

They have an offensive problem though, it would appear.

Their average line this season has been about +127, a break even of about 44%, but they've only won 38.8% of the games.

The lines on Detroit have been a bit stingy, they've gotten some good wins. A bettor betting the same unit each game would be down about -7 units so far this year, 6 spots away from the worst in the league, KC which is some -14 or -15 units on the season.

Great knowledge and input.

[pavyracer]

Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies score a ton of runs and they are still two historically shitty teams.

[stevenash]

Great knowledge and input.

He's the best.

[texhooper]

Look for the tigers to take off. This guy got the reds clicking too

[stevenash]

Look for the tigers to take off. This guy got the reds clicking too

I liked them preseason for about 78 wins.
Underneath is the model as of Jun1
Best case scenario, 79 wins is obtainable, conversely, worst case scenario is a 101 loss season.
Seventy wins is what all the analytics are pointing to as of last night.

Has to be discouraging though to see if you're a Tiger fan you have less than a one percent chance of making the playoffs.

			Current			Remaining			Average			90% Confidence
	Tm		W	L		W	L		W	L		Best	Worst		Post	WC	Div	LDS	LCS	Pennant	Win WS
NL East
1	New York Mets		34	17		61.6	49.4		95.6	66.4		104-58	87-75		98.40%	6.50%	91.90%	76.30%	38.00%	13.00%	6.60%
2	Atlanta Braves		23	27		60.7	52.3		83.7	79.3		92-71	75-88		48.70%	41.70%	7.00%	22.60%	8.80%	3.10%	1.30%
3	Philadelphia Phillies		21	29		57.6	54.4		78.6	83.4		87-75	70-92		16.30%	15.20%	1.10%	7.20%	3.20%	0.50%	0.10%
4	Miami Marlins		19	27		50.2	65.8		69.2	92.8		78-84	60-102		0.50%	0.50%	<0.1%	0.20%	0.10%	<0.1%	<0.1%
5	Washington Nationals		18	33		48.1	62.9		66.1	95.9		75-87	57-105		<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
NL Central
1	St. Louis Cardinals		28	21		67	46		95	67		103-59	86-76		97.90%	31.70%	66.20%	71.90%	37.40%	16.30%	9.70%
2	Milwaukee Brewers		32	19		59.2	51.8		91.2	70.8		100-62	83-79		92.40%	58.60%	33.80%	52.00%	20.40%	7.60%	3.00%
3	Cincinnati Reds		17	31		53.6	60.4		70.6	91.4		80-82	61-101		0.80%	0.80%	<0.1%	0.30%	0.10%	<0.1%	<0.1%
4	Chicago Cubs		20	29		47.9	65.1		67.9	94.1		76-86	59-103		0.10%	0.10%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
5	Pittsburgh Pirates		21	27		44.8	69.2		65.8	96.2		74-88	57-105		0.10%	0.10%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
NL West
1	Los Angeles Dodgers		33	16		72.2	40.8		105	56.8		113-49	97-65		>99.9%	4.40%	95.60%	97.10%	63.30%	44.50%	29.10%
2	San Francisco Giants		27	21		65.5	48.5		92.5	69.5		101-61	84-78		94.40%	90.00%	4.40%	54.80%	23.50%	13.30%	6.20%
3	San Diego Padres		30	19		52.4	60.6		82.4	79.6		91-71	74-88		39.30%	39.30%	<0.1%	13.00%	3.80%	1.40%	0.60%
4	Arizona Diamondbacks		25	26		51.1	59.9		76.1	85.9		85-77	67-95		7.30%	7.30%	<0.1%	3.50%	1.00%	0.20%	0.10%
5	Colorado Rockies		22	26		51.8	63.2		73.8	89.2		82-81	65-98		3.80%	3.80%	<0.1%	1.10%	0.40%	0.10%	0.10%
AL East
1	New York Yankees		34	15		63.3	49.7		97.3	64.7		106-56	89-73		99.10%	28.90%	70.20%	85.60%	43.50%	25.60%	11.10%
2	Toronto Blue Jays		28	20		63.3	50.7		91.3	70.7		100-62	83-79		90.10%	73.30%	16.80%	56.40%	27.20%	13.90%	6.40%
3	Tampa Bay Rays		28	21		61.6	51.4		89.6	72.4		98-64	81-81		82.80%	71.60%	11.20%	46.70%	23.40%	12.50%	4.60%
4	Boston Red Sox		23	27		59.5	52.5		82.5	79.5		91-71	74-88		36.70%	34.90%	1.80%	20.00%	9.60%	4.70%	1.20%
5	Baltimore Orioles		21	30		44.8	66.2		65.8	96.2		75-87	57-105		0.10%	0.10%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
AL Central
1	Minnesota Twins		30	21		55.2	55.8		85.2	76.8		94-68	76-86		60.50%	13.30%	47.20%	33.00%	14.10%	5.30%	2.30%
2	Cleveland Guardians		21	24		62	55		83	79		92-70	74-88		45.00%	14.50%	30.50%	25.40%	12.00%	4.50%	1.80%
3	Chicago White Sox		23	24		58	57		81	81		90-72	72-90		31.10%	9.40%	21.70%	15.00%	6.40%	2.30%	1.10%
4	Detroit Tigers		19	30		51.2	61.8		70.2	91.8		79-83	61-101		0.70%	0.20%	0.50%	0.20%	0.20%	<0.1%	<0.1%
5	Kansas City Royals		16	32		49.9	64.1		65.9	96.1		75-87	57-105		0.10%	<0.1%	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%	<0.1%	<0.1%
AL West
1	Houston Astros		32	18		63.6	48.4		95.6	66.4		104-58	87-75		97.60%	2.90%	94.70%	92.50%	54.30%	27.60%	13.20%
2	Los Angeles Angels		27	23		54.8	57.2		81.8	80.2		91-71	73-89		30.80%	27.20%	3.60%	14.60%	5.60%	2.30%	1.00%
3	Seattle Mariners		21	28		57.3	55.7		78.3	83.7		87-75	70-92		12.40%	11.40%	1.00%	5.20%	1.60%	0.50%	0.20%
4	Texas Rangers		24	24		53.9	60.1		77.9	84.1		87-75	69-93		12.00%	11.40%	0.60%	4.80%	1.80%	0.80%	0.30%
5	Oakland Athletics		20	32		52	58		72	90		81-81	63-99		1.00%	0.90%	0.10%	0.50%	0.20%	<0.1%	<0.1%

[texhooper]

Did you factor in the Brock Landers reverse jinx though Steve

[stevenash]

Did you factor in the Brock Landers reverse jinx though Steve

Page two, chapter one, you'll find the chart of your pal Nasher's fade factors in the 2022 edition of "Nasher's complete guide to sports betting and BBQ grilling"

Bear in mind, some posters are more fade worthy than others, so you may find different values assigned to different posters.
Some are insta-fades, some are fade only when on a cooler.

I'll mail you a copy, I accept all major cards, money orders, hell, I trust you, send .me an out of town, post dated, third party check if you please, I mean what could possibly go wrong with that

[texhooper]

I wish we could nominate on mobile nasher. I’m too lazy to log out and do it on desktop mode but just know, this is a nomination-worthy post you have made good man

[texhooper]

What are the posts that get nominated nominated for anyway?

[stevenash]

I wish we could nominate on mobile nasher. I’m too lazy to log out and do it on desktop mode but just know, this is a nomination-worthy post you have made good man

Appreciate the words, I do.
I've been told that I have a quirky, off the cuff sense of humor, and I have to admit, I resemble that remark.

I was a hybrid scholastic jock/geek computer science nerd. I played baseball and wrestled 170 lb weight class as well
Now you combine my passion for numbers, with the years I played baseball, throw in I do some technical writing at work (I'm IT guy) sprinkle in my dopey sense of humor and besides the fact I do some boring technical writing on the job, I love to creative write as a hobby as well.

You know, fart around on WP and such.

You know what you get when you mix everything up I wrote above in a blender?
You get me! Your pal Nasher.

Seriously though, I appreciate the fact my post made you chuckle, it's not a bit, those words just come to me.