[Rich Boy]

Blindly betting unders is working well early in the season.


Data from Covers

[jjgold]

That’s rare

[pavyracer]

Only 5% of the season has been played so far. It's a small sample.

Could be due to the shortened spring training. Hitters are going to get hot soon.

[KVB]

That’s rare

Not really

[KVB]

The sample is still small but evidence is consistent with the growing public marketplace and the thirst for OVERs that will always be a part of the public portfolio.

This can raise the lines a bit, and indeed we can run tests to see if they are elevated, leading to more UNDERs.

There are other potential reasons as well, but again our sample size is not very big.

Expect the markets to catchup.

[johnnyvegas13]

60% not really a lot and ya it will avg down

[OldBill]

depends on ball park and pitchers and wind direction also give batters a 10 mph + wind going out no matter how good the starters ERA is

you get games like 10-9

[lakerboy]

It's cold

[hehfest]

Noticing some teams using 6-7 starters out of the gate. They have fresh bullpens to start the year. And we can't blame the Russians for this too? But wait.....the Rus' are the ones that created that electronic pitcher catcher pitch selection so they don't get the signs mixed up. For example, if Johnny has short-term memory loss or just can't count that fast....he throws the wrong pitch a lot. The Russians solved this problem so blame the unders on them.

[hehfest]

After a really fast estimate, I think NHL totals for the year (as it is near end) are 130-140 games over the total. The strange thing is....they clearly don't really body check anymore, so why no adjustment by Vegas on these totals is beyond me. No checking = more scoring. Just what they want to draw attention to their game.

As a former player, and defenseman, I hit the player and let the puck go wherever it may. Now, they go for the puck only. Its just simple logic scoring would go up significantly from this.

[cankid]

April always seems to have decent number of unders to start the year

[Itsamazing777]

It's cold right now.
Perfectly normal

[jjgold]

Always remember baseball is basically a bunch of overpaid hitters that’s can’t hit

[KVB]

Always remember baseball is basically a bunch of overpaid hitters that’s can’t hit

Meanwhile the UFC is full of a bunch of underpaid hitters that can knock you the fukk out!

[jjgold]

I think unders are gonna be a nice find all year pitchers are way ahead of hitters

[EdV38]

If you think about it, it makes sense. Expanded rosters thanks to the shortened spring and all that roster expansion is going into relief pitchers right now. Let's see what happens after May 1.

[StackinGreen]

Of course it'll even out, but I love unders and especially particular teams that I know are overbet from a total perspective. I'm off this week but have been on fire in bases. Let's go boys, keep it rollin'

[KVB]

Of course it'll even out, but I love unders and especially particular teams that I know are overbet from a total perspective. I'm off this week but have been on fire in bases. Let's go boys, keep it rollin'

[stevenash]

The extra inning ghost runner rule is the main reason for the unders.
Took me a couple of months last season to figure that out.

[StackinGreen]

The extra inning ghost runner rule is the main reason for the unders.
Took me a couple of months last season to figure that out.

Yes, that silliness is still going this year, huh ... darn, seemed like I got hit last year far more times on unders (I probably bet those way more) than any bail out on overs with the stupid rule.

[KVB]

Stackin' I hope all is well.

Good to see you around.

[Rich Boy]

Books seem to be adjusting, alot of 7.5 and 8 totals now

[Rich Boy]

Unders still dominating early

[jjgold]

trends are your friends

[StackinGreen]

Stackin' I hope all is well.

Good to see you around.

Likewise! I'll be checkin' your posts of course. Maybe I'll see you in Vegas

[jimminn]

Betting never got easier . I am betting unders today and pick up the easy money. No thinking involved .

[StackinGreen]

Betting never got easier . I am betting unders today and pick up the easy money. No thinking involved .

[Bcatswin]

Stack it up!

[jimminn]

It worked yesterday

[StackinGreen]

Stack it up!

Yeah baby, be sure to check my MLB posts and weigh in! We'll have some fun especially if we keep winnin and I get viewpoints. I'm usually a great 1H baseball guy then man those lines get tight and it seems to get a lot harder, as is usual in the betting world.

[KVB]

Damn, I'm on OVERs in Balty/LAA and COL/DET.

Maybe we see a market shift, there are some early signs this is the case.

Then again, could be like favorites and dogs last year, two very separate, distinct longer term runs.

I'm usually ahead of the market (market results) just far enough to pick up a few losers before the winners come in and it becomes about value.

[hehfest]

Yes, that silliness is still going this year, huh ... darn, seemed like I got hit last year far more times on unders (I probably bet those way more) than any bail out on overs with the stupid rule.

Oh yeah. You (I, all of us) will lose far more unders on extra inning games then will win. 3-3 is the death nail. Total at 8 or 9. I lost one last year that was 1-1 (Upon recollection....which it may have been 2-2 with total of 8/9). Had the under and it got there in extras. They kept scoring one run and tying it. Full Tilt that night!

[hehfest]

Damn, I'm on OVERs in Balty/LAA and COL/DET.

Maybe we see a market shift, there are some early signs this is the case.

Then again, could be like favorites and dogs last year, two very separate, distinct longer term runs.

I'm usually ahead of the market (market results) just far enough to pick up a few losers before the winners come in and it becomes about value.

The market never really shifted in the NHL this year. There were some very short periods of unders coming in for a few days then back to overs. The overs dominated all year. With 162 games, weather warming up, and hitters getting their timing......the overs will be coming.

[19th Hole]

Playing:
TWINS UNDER
TIGERS UNDER
D'Backs F5 Under

[KVB]

The market never really shifted in the NHL this year. There were some very short periods of unders coming in for a few days then back to overs. The overs dominated all year. With 162 games, weather warming up, and hitters getting their timing......the overs will be coming.

Good looking out here.

If I get a chance I'll get some metrics down.

This is worth another thread by itself.