SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Nasher Breaks down the National League
I'll breakdown the American League later this weekend as it takes about 2 hours to start one of these thread correctly.
Three things are certain this season in the National League.
The Dodgers will win the West by 20 games.
The Marlins will finish dead last in the East.
The Pirates will finish dead last in the Central.
NL East
1 Atlanta Braves 91 - 71
2 Washington Nationals 89 - 73
3 New York Mets 87-75
4 Philadelphia Phillies 78 - 84
5 Miami Marlins 69 - 93
The top three teams here could very well be flip flopped as the separation gap is just that narrow.
At first glance I had projected the Phils higher but the more I look at it the more I don't think they're just quite there yet.
Reasons why I think the Braves win the Division:
Their lineup. It's stacked with a little bit of everything.
The first four have the potential (I said potential) to hit 30 HR's each. (Acuna, Albies, Freeman, and Ozuna) More than likely Freeman and Acuna.
The top five, Markakis hitting fifth all should hover around .280, the addition of d'Arnauld at catcher makes that lineup six deep in power. The top two Acuna and Albies both are speed merchants and you know what they say about speed, it never sleeps.
The one problem I have with Acuna leading off is he's a strikeout waiting to happen but know this, this is one potent lineup.
Braves have enough starting pitching to win it, Cole Hamels (who's a little dinged up right now) and Soroka aren't quite the dynamic duo of Max and Strasburg over there in Washington DC but it's nice.
Folty is a consistent #3 starter.
In the bullpen I like the setup men (Will Smith and Shane Greene) better than I like the closer Mark Melancon but I can live with with Melancon and O'Day as a sixth inning man make the bullpen pretty deep.
The Nationals will be in the thick of the Division race all year and if they don't over take the Braves should nail down a wild card mainly due to that two headed monster over there in Max and Stras.
Add in Corbin as the #3 starter and you have the best rotation in the NL East.
Who's closing over there? Hudson or Doolittle (or a combination thereof)
The loss of Rendon in the lineup in a giant hole to fill and it makes that lineup a whole lot less scary.
Yes there's power in the middle of that Nats lineup with Thames, Turner, and Soto but Thames doesn't hit for average, doesn't get on base enough and strikes out too much. Hell that trio could strike out 400 times between the three of them. I was a big Adam Eaton fan at lead off spot.
Which bring me to the Mets, no longer a laughing stock as I think they'll be in the hunt for a wild card this year too.
A lot of baseball minds greater than mine are suddenly jumping on the NY Mets to win the NL East Division bandwagon to which I say "I don't see it, but they could, because (see the Nats) good pitching usually beats good hitting" and Syndegaard and deGrom with Matz backing them up is as good as a starting front three as it gets unless your names are Max, Strasburg, and Corbin.
Maybe Porcello needs a change of scenery and the National League is what the doctor order, he's still a HR waiting to happen but I can think of worse back end rotation guys to have on your staff.
Here's the move I really like that the Metropolitans pulled off the most. Signing Betances to set up Diaz. To be honest here I'd prefer Diaz setting up Betances but who knows?
The problem I have with the Mets is their lineup.
There next to zero team speed to speak of. There's going to be a lot of base clogging over there in Queens.
Then there's Cespedes who hasn't played in about two years.
Conforto strikes out too much.
Alfonso is a still a kid but he's got Aaron Judge written all over him.
I'm not 100 percent sold on McNeill and JD Davis.
Cano in the four hole is a giant waste, who's prime was three years ago plus.
And New York has serious CF problems. Do you really want to go to war with Brandon Nimmo?
Having said all that as long as you have pitching you have hope.
Next up, the Phillies.
They have a nice front three with Nola, Wheeler, and Arrieta.
The bullpen is weak. I don't trust Adam Morgan setting up Hector Neris at all, and I don't know how healthy David Robertson is.
And the lineup is spotty at best and full of holes.
Didi was a terrific sign, however McCutchen is on the DL, Hoskins and Harper have power to spare but both of them strikeout too much, and the bottom of the order (Kingery and Heasley) do nothing for me.
I love the catcher in Realmuto.
For these reasons I knock the Phils down to fourth in the Division.
Lastly there's the Marlins.
I'm not going to spend much time here because there isn't much here.
Do you think Jeter wakes up in the morning as says to himself "what the hell am I doing down here with this train wreck"?
Miami has shit for starters, the bullpen isn't that bad.
The Marlins do have a few bright spots in the lineup though if Villar can return to that Brewers form from a few years ago, and I do like Corey Dickerson in the middle of the lineup.
If everything breaks right maybe they win 74 games.
NL Central
1 Cincinnati Reds 87 - 75
2 Chicago Cubs 84 - 78
3 Milwaukee Brewers 83 - 79
4 St. Louis Cardinals 79 - 83
5 Pittsburgh Pirates 70 - 92
I'm ahead up front and driving the Reds bandwagon this season.
Mainly because of their brilliant off season moves.
Signing of Moose at 2B. Genius.
Signing of Nick Castellanos at 3B. Genius
Signing of SP Trevor Bauer. Genius.
The Reds now have the most lethal starting rotation in the NL Central in Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, and Wade Miley.
I'm not thrilled with the bullpen with Lorenzen setting up Iglesias but what 'ya going to do?
Now the good part, the lineup. It's rock solid.The Japanese import Shogo leading off is the real deal.
Joey Votto may be pushing 100 years old (as my wife said to me the other day "he's still in the league?") will still approach 20 HR's still give you .400 OBA ans still give you a stead glove at first base.
Suarez batting third has 40 HR power. Same with Moustakas hitting clean up, same with Castellanos hitting fifth.
Long story short this team is loaded with starting pitching, and loaded with power.
Oh, by the way, will strikeout a ton, but I don't mind.
I'm going to get rich this season with the Reds or die trying.
The Cubs should be in the hunt all season too.
Like the Reds their lineup is stacked with power too, also like the Reds they will strike out just as much.
They return seven regular starters to their regular lineup with the exception of Jason Kipnis so no need to run down the names here.
The Cubbies expect to move Bryant up to leadoff because last season they were pretty much dead last in every category from the #1 hole and that has to be addressed.
Chicago's top 2 in the rotation is not bad (Darvish and Quintana) however as much as I like Lester I think his time has come.
Their bullpen isn't that deep and as much as I love Kimbrel is he really still an elite?
The Cubs lineup isn't as long as the Reds and their rotation isn't as deep.
Maybe a Wild Card for Chicago.
I have the Brewers finishing third.
With any sort of pitching they can finish second though.
I don't like Sogard as a leadoff batter, but I love their 2-5 hitters even though Braun is getting old real fast.
Yelich is still a monster, Lorenzo Cain is still a four tool player, I really like the kid at 2B too.
Their bottom third of the order is mediocre at best. The tw0 through five batters have to carry that offense.
As far as Milwaukee's pitching goes, Woodruff needs to return to form, and both Houser and Anderson need to overachieve, or else as fast as they can finish second in this division they could easily finish fourth.
Cardinals look like they've taken a step back.
Flaherty is still a true ace however Mikolas is still hurt.
Dakota Hudson is barely a .500 starter and Wainwright is old.
Their lineup is getting old too.
Fowler is getting old, Carpenter and Molina too.
Oh sure they got punch with Goldy and Dejong but this lineup just doesn't scare me.
Neither does that unproven bullpen.
Looks like a fourth place finish here.
Like the Marlins in the East I'm not going to write that much up on the Pirates because like the Marlins there is not much there and that's a shame because Pittsburgh deserves good baseball.
First the good.
Their lineup is not that bad.
Bell hitting cleanup is a clubber, I like Polanco hitting third and Moran batting fifth too.
Looks the kid Reynolds might be a good one.
Now the bad.
After you get past Chris Archer that rotation is bad.
And the ugly. The bullpen.
NL West
1 Los Angeles Dodgers 104 - 58
2 San Diego Padres 84 - 78
3 Arizona Diamondback 80 - 82
4 Colorado Rockies 74 - 88
5 San Francisco Giants 66 - 96
Like I mentioned at the top of this thread this Dodger team is the most overhyped team I've seen in 20 years and should win the West by 20 games.
I don't need to run down the names you know all them, there's Mookie, and Corey, and Cody, and Justin, and AJ....
On the pitching side there's Kershaw and Buheller and Price......
You all know my position on LA, I don't like them.
That's not to say I don't think they'll win by 20 and win 104 plus games.
Because they will.
And if they don't I don't want to hear another word ever from a Dodger fan. (just kidding fellas)
The Padres should finish second in the West but have to face LA 17 times.
If they can go 7 and 10 versus LA and beat up on the bottom three teams then they might grab a second wild card.
I'd love to see that.
I really like the top four of that Padre order.
Tatis, Pham, Machado, and Hosmer all can rake.
I really like the staff ace Paddack too, after that the rotation thins out.
Their bullpen although unproven have good control guys.
Like I said they'll finish 20 games behind LA but still could grab a second WC.
The Arizona Diamondbacks will probably finish third but won't really be that relevant so I'm not going to spend that much time writing them up.
The Rockies won't be relevant so I will not write them up, ditto the Giants.
Except I'll say this much for the Giants I think they'll be a mid 60's win team this season. What the hell happened to them to become a 60's win team?
There you have it, my take on the National League this season.
Braves, Reds, Dodgers all Division winners.
Mets, Nats, Cubs, Padres Wild Card contenders.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by JAKEPEAVY21
