Well, really tough start to my gambling week. The Yankees over was perhaps the worst loss I’ve ever suffered in a baseball game, and the overpriced Cubs rallied in the 8th. Looks like a 1-3 night unless the M's or O's have an unforeseeable scoring outburst. But, there’s no crying in baseball, so we move on.
Braves -128 (Reyes/Arroyo)
This was somewhat discussed in another thread about Towers’ record vs. the Yankees. Well, in this case, Bronson Arroyo is 2-1 career against the Braves. Hey, he‘s probably going to pitch well against them tomorrow, right? I kind of doubt it:
Francoeur 2-6, .333, HR
Harris 2-7, .286
A. Jones 4-16, .250, 2B, HR
C. Jones 5-13, .385, 2B, HR
McCann 3-5, .600, HR
Renteria 6-11, .545, 2B
Thorman 2-5, .400, 2B, HR
Throw in Escobar (who is my favorite young player to watch, the kid is going to be special) or Johnson at second, and the Braves should have success against him. Before today, the Braves had been playing very well, and they should brush off that loss and return to beating up on inferior teams at home. Reyes is highly touted, and even though he is a bit of an unknown, he’s not likely to get totally crushed. If it’s close late, the Braves have a huge bullpen advantage. Lay it.
Mets +138 (El Duque/Peavy)
Both pitchers have strong records and ERA’s against the opponent, but El Duque has given up less than a hit an inning and has a career 0.73 WHIP against the Padres. His lone career start at Petco, he struck out 9 and gave up only two hits in six innings. As good as Peavy has been, he has to be perfect in most of his starts to get the win. This is the best lineup in the NL against the worst, and at +138, it‘s worth the gamble.
Blue Jays (Halladay) @ Yankees (Pettite) Over 9 -105
Thank you sir, may I have another. 23 hits, 6 walks, and 6 homers on Monday, and it goes under. There should be lots of hits again in this one the way these two have been pitching. Runs in Halladay’s last eight starts: 23, 16, 9, 13, 13, 11, 14, 11. That wasn’t all Doc’s fault, he had a couple good starts in there, but in reality, he hasn’t even been the Jays‘ best pitcher the past couple months. His ERA has climbed from 2.28 at the end of April to 4.66, he’s only struck out more than four batters twice in those 11 starts, and he’s given up 10 or more hits four times. He’s not pitching terribly, just not what we’ve come to expect from him.
Andy Pettite’s last two home starts have been awful. His ERA has climbed from 2.93 to 4.27 the past month. Even though I expect him to right the ship before too long, the chances of him shutting down a Blue Jays lineup that is tailored to hit lefties is minimal.
Tigers (Robertson) @ Twins (Garza) Under 9.5 -105
Robertson owns the two key Twins hitters, Mauer (3-19) and Morneau (3-21), and for good measure, Bartlett (0-14). Most of the other Twins hitters have average numbers against Robertson, except Matt LeCroy, who is 13-23 with 7 XB hits! Luckily he won‘t be participating in this game.
I like Garza a lot, love the Twins bullpen, and with the Twins hitting righties better than lefties and the Tigers hitting lefties better than righties, this total is a little high.
Rangers +151 (Tejeda/Gaudin)
The A’s appear headed for their 8th consecutive loss tonight, and their 11th consecutive game with three or fewer runs scored. Chad Gaudin is a big fat fade in the second half this year. The Rangers are playing OK, and have a better lineup and bullpen than Oakland. Tejeda is right-handed, and the A’s don’t hit righties nearly as well as lefties.
Unfortunately, Colon Blow seems to have been pulled from his scheduled start, so no fade is in order.
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