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What puts 2018's top rookies at the head of the class?


Jeff Sullivan
ESPN INSIDER


There's a pretty good chance that the best player to make his debut in 2018 will be Ronald Acuna Jr. If it's not him, it might easily be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Or Fernando Tatis Jr. Let's hear it for bloodlines. These are some of the consensus best prospects in the world, and they might not have a whole lot left to prove in the minors. Acuna, in fact, is already in the bigs, albeit on the disabled list. He'll be returning in a short amount of time.

So, one angle would be to write about the best 2018 rookies, long term, but it's also akin to skimming from the top of different prospect lists. Instead, let's talk about the best 2018 rookie performances. These are not the 10 rookies or potential rookies of 2018 who I like the most, from now through the end of all their careers. Rather, these are the 10 rookies of 2018 whose performances have impressed me the most so far. Much of this is about performance level, but I also have to balance that against credit given for playing time. My apologies to players like Acuna, Adam Cimber, Jack Flaherty, Joey Lucchesi, Dan Winkler and so on.

Of course, players who do well right away are players who are improving their stocks. All of these rookies should look very encouraging, moving forward. This list is ranked, from No. 1 through No. 10. And note that, in addition to the names, I'll give you something about each player that allows him to stand out because of his skill set.

1. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels

I can't imagine I even have to write anything here. If you're on ESPN, reading about baseball, you've already read a lot about Ohtani. You might feel as if you've read too much about Ohtani. In that event, I encourage you to reconsider your outlook on things; you definitely haven't read too much about Ohtani, who has been trying to do something no one has done in the majors in decades. And Ohtani has been doing it well.

There are 314 players with at least 100 plate appearances. Ohtani the hitter ranks tied for 16th in wRC+. There are 131 starters with at least 40 innings. Ohtani the pitcher ranks 11th in strikeout rate. Ohtani the runner even has the same Statcast-measured sprint speed as Lorenzo Cain. I said I'd point out something particular about each player's skill set. Ohtani is a good pitcher. Shohei Ohtani is a good hitter. That's amazing. And it's why his present injury is such terrible news, not only for the Angels, but for baseball itself. Let us all hope he can avoid the worst-case scenario.

2. Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers make me laugh, because they're not at all what they're supposed to be and yet they're still pretty good. Many of their best players are injured, disappointing or both. The team leader in FanGraphs' version of WAR is Max Muncy. Second place is a tie between Matt Kemp and Ross Stripling. And there, in fourth, is Buehler. Buehler has helped to carry an injury-riddled starting rotation, although his rib injury has put him on the shelf, at least briefly

As much as Buehler is known for his premium heat, here's what I like about him the most: Out of every pitcher with at least 50 innings, he has thrown the third-highest rate of pitches in the strike zone. In the expansion era, going back to 1961, there have been only three rookie starters with at least 50 innings, at least nine strikeouts per nine and no more than two walks per nine. Their names are Masahiro Tanaka, Noah Syndergaard and Roy Oswalt. Buehler is on pace to become the fourth. Rare is the power rookie pitcher with command, but Buehler has a special kind of arm.

3. Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees

We all knew from the outset that the Yankees, as a team, would challenge the all-time record for home runs. We also knew that, at some point, Torres would factor into the middle infield. We did not all know that Torres' own power would supply such a jolt. In his first professional season in the minors, Torres homered twice. The next year, he homered thrice. He went deep a then-career-high 11 times in 2016, before dropping to seven in a season interrupted by injury. But in 2018, Torres has already knocked a dozen homers. He has hit 12 of them in the majors.

Though Torres has already homered to all fields, he's at his best when he's hitting to left and left-center. At FanGraphs, the field is split into thirds: pull, center and opposite. Torres, to this point, has been the sixth-best pull hitter in baseball. He's tied on that list with Mike Trout. Torres also has the single-highest pull-side hard-hit rate. He's in front of the gargantuan Matt Olson and Joey Gallo. Let there be no question that Torres is growing into his power.

4. Max Stassi, Houston Astros

Compared to the three players above him on this list, Stassi has been relatively quiet. He has played in only 38 games, and he's not even the Astros' regular catcher. Furthermore, it might be easy to forget that Stassi is still a rookie, given that he reached the majors in parts of each of the previous five seasons. Stassi has been around for a while. Torres is 21 years old. Stassi is 27.

And yet! There are 37 catchers this year with at least 100 plate appearances, and Stassi ranks third in wRC+ and second in home runs per fly ball. Just as important, according to the numbers at Baseball Prospectus, Stassi currently ranks first among all catchers in pitch-framing runs. That's without being the starter. Some of that, sure, might actually be due to the Astros' phenomenal pitching staff. But make no mistake -- Stassi is a strong defensive catcher, and he's a strong defensive catcher with a bat. Every team in baseball could use one of those.

5. Miguel Andujar, New York Yankees

Think about the Yankees and how stacked they are. And now think about this: Ten different Yankees hitters have batted at least 100 times. The leader in wRC+, of course, is Aaron Judge. But the guy in second is Torres. And the guy in third is Andujar. Not Giancarlo Stanton or Gary Sanchez or Didi Gregorius or even Aaron Hicks. It's Andujar, right behind Torres. The kids have had little trouble transitioning to the bigs, and this is a major reason why the team is in first place.

I'm dinging Andujar a little bit because as well as he has hit, the defense hasn't been great. Andujar has made a few too many mistakes at third base, and that's something the Yankees know he needs to clean up. But for a positive note here, again, 314 players in baseball have batted at least 100 times. Andujar is one of only nine players to be above-average against fastballs, sliders, cutters, curveballs, changeups and splitters. He hasn't yet faced a knuckleball. So far, he has been a hitter without a vulnerability.

6. Juan Soto, Washington Nationals

I said earlier I want to give credit for playing time. Soto does not have much playing time -- at this writing, he's sitting on all of just 20 major league games. But it's about balancing between playing time and performance. No, Soto hasn't had the chance to play as much as some other rookies, but he also has hit the snot out of the ball. He's 19 years old, and he's all but forcing the Nationals to play him every day.

Some people might be impressed by Soto's .651 slugging percentage. Others might prefer the .349 batting average. What I love the most are the 12 walks and 11 strikeouts. Did I mention that Soto is 19? Did I mention he has spent the least time in the minors for a top prospect since Alex Rodriguez? Soto has eight career minor league games above high-A ball. He has that little professional experience, yet he still has been disciplined against major league opponents. There are 375 players with at least 70 plate appearances; Soto is one of only 17 with at least as many walks as whiffs. Soto also has yet to hit a popup.

7. Austin Meadows, Pittsburgh Pirates

The same idea applied to Soto applies to Meadows. Meadows has not yet played very much, but out of everyone with at least 70 plate appearances, he ranks 12th in baseball in wRC+. Now, granted, the guy in third is Austin Romine, so, sometimes small samples are deceptive, but Meadows has done nothing but impress. He was originally promoted by the Pirates as a placeholder, but now he's making them find him a spot in the outfield almost every day. That's one of those so-called "good problems," when an overachieving young player makes management reconsider its roster outlook.

Unlike Soto, early Meadows hasn't been a walk-drawing machine. Instead, he has something else going for him: He has made contact with seven out of every eight swings. He also has a 41 percent hard-hit rate. If you put it together, Meadows is one of only six players with a hard-hit rate of at least 40 percent, and a contact rate of at least 85 percent. If Meadows can sustain his bat-to-ball skills, then he should be ready for his career to get going in earnest.

8. Brian Anderson, Miami Marlins

Anderson has been the opposite of Soto and Meadows, in a way. He doesn't have numbers that jump right off the page. Instead, he has just been solid across the board, while playing just about every game for the dreadful Marlins. As I've been writing this, Anderson just hit his fourth home run of the year. I know that's not very many, but you have to consider Anderson's extensive competence.

Anderson has a slightly better-than-average walk rate. He has a slightly better-than-average strikeout rate. He has a better-than-average hard-hit rate, and he's rated as a slightly better-than-average baserunner. He has played regularly at third base, and he has moved to playing regularly in right field. Anderson has hit well up the middle, but his specialty has been going the other way. Anderson ranks seventh in the majors in opposite-field wRC+. He's not a spectacular player, but he's one of the few good things the Marlins have going. He should be a pretty good one for a very long time.

9. Seranthony Dominguez, Philadelphia Phillies

Through 2017, in the minors, Dominguez was a starting pitcher. The Phillies this year moved him into the bullpen. He has pitched in Double-A, Triple-A and the major leagues. Over 35 ⅔ innings, he has given up 15 hits, with 4 walks and 43 strikeouts. The other day, I was talking with a front-office person about a different sport entirely. Unsolicited, he brought up Dominguez out of nowhere. That's how sensational he has been since being promoted. He has forced himself into unrelated conversations. He has even saved a couple of major league games for a young team in the hunt.

There are a lot of good relievers and a lot of good rookie relievers. It wasn't easy for me to settle on this final list of names, but I'll tell you what allowed Dominguez to separate himself. Exactly 404 different pitchers have thrown at least 15 innings. Not only has Dominguez allowed the eighth-lowest rate of contact on pitches in the strike zone -- he has thrown the 27th-highest rate of pitches in the strike zone. He has been simultaneously aggressive and unhittable, which is the best possible combination. As long as his arm stays together, he seems primed to be the next Edwin Diaz.

10. Harrison Bader, St. Louis Cardinals

Like Stassi, Bader has been quiet. Like Stassi, Bader isn't an everyday player. He ranks 10th on the Cardinals in plate appearances, behind Jedd Gyorko, and he's obviously not Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna or Dexter Fowler. For a fleeting moment in time, there was even belief that Bader might have been bypassed by Tyler O'Neill. Bader is a fourth outfielder with a slightly better-than-average batting line. You look at him and you figure he's a good National League depth piece.

And yet, there's more than that going on here. It goes beyond Bader being a plus baserunner. Bader is tied for third among all outfielders in defensive runs saved. According to Statcast's outs above average metric, he's tied for fifth place. Bader looks as if he could be a premium defender capable of handling all three outfield positions, and that elevates him from being a depth piece to being a starting-caliber backup. A fantastic insurance policy, in other words, should the Cardinals have something go wrong.