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Early in the Season DOUBLE HEADER Stat
I have noticed over the years, that the loser of game 1 of a double header wins game 2 a lot of the time that I have paid attention to. Went back through this season via mobile, so not sure if I missed one, but I believe the loser of game 1 of a double header is 7-2 for game 2 so far this season. 2 double headers today. See how it plays out...
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It’s very hard to sweep the team a doubleheader I don’t care who’s playing and who’s pitching let’s go with that strategy
According to that strategy, Nationals and Cubs would be the plays for the 2nd games today. We shall see..
With Mets taking game 2 last night, updated w/l should be 9-3
See if it works today with Tigers/Yanks
Tigers are getting swept today...
Very possible. LolOriginally Posted by MMANick
Interesting stat. Yeah if a team has 2 good starting pitchers and the team gets in a good hitting rhythm, I could see an easy 2 game sweep. Are we taking in account home team vs the away team? 375/1100
No home/away. 325Interesting stat. Yeah if a team has 2 good starting pitchers and the team gets in a good hitting rhythm, I could see an easy 2 game sweep. Are we taking in account home team vs the away team? 375/1100
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Seems like ur cherry picking stats
backtest it for several years and see if it holds
what happens in game one of a double header should have no more effect on game 2 than game 1 of a series Has on the second game of the series.
If it was 7-2 the opposite way u could say it’s because the losing team is tired and demoralized
it's real. Although going from memory, so take with a grain of salt...
Historically this does hold true, teams will split a doubleheader. There is data which proves it.
Last year 2017 it didn't hold true, as there were quite a few sweeps in the doubleheaders.
Reasons why? I think there are two main factors. First, just generally speaking that to play the same professional team as the opponent twice in the same day is a tough task to beat them twice....the team that lost should figure out some adjustments. As DLo said, it shouldn't matter that the games happen to be played on the same day, but it does.
Secondly, I think the team that wins game 1 often uses there best bullpen pitchers to secure the win. Typically those same bullpen arms will not be available for game 2. If they are leading by 1,2,3 runs in game 1, this situation probably holds true. Meantime the team losing game 1 will not go to their best bullpen arm in a 3-run or more deficit late in game 1, but leaves their better bullpen pitchers available to close-out a lead in game 2.
This could be significant
I have no clue what the historic % of these are. Good post by Hotcross above. I was just thinking as I see these things split more often than not to go back through this season and see what they really were. 9-3 this season so far. When you have an elite team like the Yanks and a mediocre team like the Tigers, one would think this wouldn't hold true, but with gas can German on the hill, I would take a small blind shot at the home dog @ +170 or so in game 2. With that being said, prolly another Yanks blowout, but who knows? Lol
It's just one factor that plays into what I've constantly called the natural give and take of the markets.
Yes, it's real but watch for circumstances, prices, and most importantly, that these double headers, like the 7-2 stat above, will tend to even out over, not time, but the season itself.
We see this in many sports, especially the NFL, with negative stats like errors and turnovers.
From a betting perspective there are most definitely two halves to a season and I assure you that the double header stat may swing one way early, but it will swing back.
It's all a part of the natural give and take of the markets, which occur not just in one day with a double header, but over a longer haul of a season.
This thread mentions the early season for a reason, the OP has paid attention.
Since 2008 the record for doubleheaders, split/sweep, is 128/129
http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/doubleheaders/_/year/2018
KVB mentioned it may be different early in the season, which it may, but in doing that ur reducing the sample size and forming a theory based on the resulting data. I can't think of a legitimate reason it would be harder to sweep a team early in the season compared to later.
I'm not saying this to start trolling again but this is what the OP did with his former soccer overs threads that turned out not to be +ev, look at recent histories and think there is a predictable trend.
Last edited by dlowilly; 06-04-18 at 02:17 PM.
Like I said, not just over time, but the season itself.
These things really do even out anymore.
When will SBR put up 1H line for the second game?
Yankees will win and cover run line in both.
Ive blindly played this strategy for years......and seems like it hits 80% of the time.
What strategy? Can you be more specific? If you've done it all season then what "seems like" 80% turns out not to be...
cannot argue what the data shows
But analyze it further for us, yes DLo please accept this nomination...
When game 1 was decided by 3 or less run differential, what percentage of splitting the doubleheader game 2 took place? Or do it with 2 or less runs differential.
Wanna see if my theory is accurate as stated before. Thinking the blowout in game 1 is what more often leads to the same team sweeping game 2.
Could also look how big of a favorite the winning sweep teams were. Meaning mismatch from the start.
Nah you go ahead all the info is in that link
Earlier in the season compared to later one would think has to do with teams playing their majors roster vs. later in the season you got contenders playing double A teams as half the league has mailed it in by then.
it's all theory until someone scrubs the data
I'm not capable
Where's Mr. Galt or the poster A Quant ??
Help!
How about since you have the link to look at the data you take the time to research and support your theory rather than just "maybes" and "what abouts"
Also, what is "early" in the season? 1 month, 2 months, 3 months? Or until the data doesn't support it?
Last edited by dlowilly; 06-04-18 at 03:26 PM.
The thread was created early in the season. That's what the title is referring to. 9-3 on the season. Don't need to read more into it cuz I was just merely stating something I felt I noticed.
Yeah but KVB and I have cordially disproven it but you continue to try and wiggle in to an angle where ur right
As far as your most recent claim of "Early in the season the splits are more likely" I looked thru June since I can't believe a team would mail it in before June is over and I extended the years back to 2002 to try and make up for the reduction in sample size/season. Here are the results:
2002-2017 Double header results thru June - 82 Splits/86 Sweeps
Let it die
It's good, this is why we have these threads.
If the pendulum continues to swing one way, it could create another bit of evidence to support your game two play later in the season.
Say you are already looking for game two to end in sweep later in the season, seasons won't vary too far from 50-50 in and of themselves so it could help with making play if it's later in the season.
It's not good by itself but sometimes gaining edges is just about stacking small percentages.
In fact, one of the forecasts I always give is called the "stacking percentages forecast."
Here's an sdql query for double headers with a first game loss .
You can run with it from here adding in margin, month, season, home/away, favorite/dog, and other parameters.
p:date=date and p:L
going back to 2004
through june..
double header..
game 1..
away loss by 1 run..
line range - 180/+150
16-0 (4.38) (-110)
4 this year with the bad weather
^^^so you ran a query and I still cannot follow it....
in english, if the away team lost game 1 by exactly 1 run, then the away team won game 2 with a 16-0 record?? is that correct?
I think you used something similar to the first query below which is not predictive, as you are not referencing the previous game 1, but the 2nd game.
p:date=date and AL and p:margin=-1 and 150>line>-180
To make it predictive you need to add the "previous" parameter to the away loss from game 1.
p:date=date and p:AL and p:margin=-1 and 150>line>-180
Tigers as a big dog
Twins-Whitesox double header tomorrow.
129/129 nowTigers as a big dog
Twins-Whitesox double header tomorrow.
You should probably go 5 units on the next one
If not for juice your strategy would be free break even entertainment. Alas there is juice.
mikejamm gave funnyb25 150 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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