[Scrivero]

This is my second MLB thread, and actually my second today. This needs a new thread because the other thread is me trying to come up with innovative approaches and SDQL queries to win money.

THIS THREAD also uses SDQL but not in the same way.

In this thread I will end streaks that make no sense, and win loads of cash (hopefully)! And so will you, if you tail (hopefully).

In this thread we will not go against streaks that make sense, such as Team X has won Team Y 15 times in a row when they are playing home against them. That makes sense, as Team X is probably just a great home team and Team Y probably just sucks away. One shouldnt go against streaks, quite the opposite.

Here is though an example of a streak that does not make sense and which we will go against:

The Reds are 1-19 SU as a dog by more than 150 after Joey Votto was hitless in at least three at bats.

That streak is found by FUqer in his MLB thread here: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...2017-a-p2.html

So that streak does not make sense AND when one checks the games before the streak started, the ROI for Reds to win RL (+1,5) is actually +42,7 %, while it was +62,6 % to FADE Reds RL (-1,5) during the streak.

So thats it: We will try break streaks that dont make sense AND that seem to be the opposite in ROI before the streak started.

The first play for today is:
Reds RL (+1,5) -102, 1 unit. AND I apologize for posting it to this thread late. It was an early game and I just started this system like 30 minutes ago. I will post ca 4-6 more picks for tonight later. Just need to check all the streaks that FUqer has found and check if there would be a streak to end.

If you know or find some strange streaks, then please post them! I will have to trust on other people finding the streaks that I will play against, I dont know how to find them myself, yet.

Lets break some streaks and win some cash!

BY THE WAY: We might, just might make this a chase too in some way. We would need to find a way backtest streaks ending before doing that though.

[Scrivero]

Plays for tonight, 1 unit each:
1. Reds RL +1,5 -102 (again, sorry for posting this one late)
2. Athletics RL -1,5 +185
3. White Sox RL +1,5 +117

Good luck!

[OoDeBaby]

Go to killer sports, click on MLB, then click on the "trends page". I think they have a bunch of random stupid trends in there

[BarstoolProphet]

I think your streak makes no "cents"

[Scrivero]

Go to killer sports, click on MLB, then click on the "trends page". I think they have a bunch of random stupid trends in there

Thanks man, I had already forgotten that!

[Scrivero]

I think your streak makes no "cents"

No cents indeed. Do we give up? Normally probably yes (I have low patience for anything), but I really think we are onto something here so we wont.

[BarstoolProphet]

Dont give up ,,I just saw an open door for a bad joke. You have my eyes on this one. good luck

[2daBank]

Im having a hard time figuring out how that reds deal is even a "streak"? Surely that 1-19 goes back a ways and is incredibly spread out to find 20 games where votto hitless in his last 3 abs and they are then dogs of greater than 150 the next day no? Hell im curious as to who even came up with checking such a thing?

No bashing or disrespect intended just trying to get understanding of your thought process here as to why this ever has to change? Also curious as what the basis was for the other 2 bets as I didn't see that anywhere.

I hope it successful for you.

[juicername]

Yeah ... It's admirable that you're trying to find unique angles, but if all of them are like outlined in the OP then they are indeed "streaks that make no sense" and pretty much nonsense trends IMO. It's a nice streak indeed, but I would not say it's indicative of future success.

With criteria like these you can find 1000s of trends every day, and many of them will go opposite each other.

[Scrivero]

Dont give up ,,I just saw an open door for a bad joke. You have my eyes on this one. good luck

I thought it was funny Thanks!

[Scrivero]

Im having a hard time figuring out how that reds deal is even a "streak"? Surely that 1-19 goes back a ways and is incredibly spread out to find 20 games where votto hitless in his last 3 abs and they are then dogs of greater than 150 the next day no? Hell im curious as to who even came up with checking such a thing?

No bashing or disrespect intended just trying to get understanding of your thought process here as to why this ever has to change? Also curious as what the basis was for the other 2 bets as I didn't see that anywhere.

I hope it successful for you.

Thanks for the comment and lol I agree wholeheartedly that the streak above makes no sense and I would never ever think of checking such a thing. The person who has come up with such things exists though, and he is playing for those strange streaks to continue and went 6-1-2 with his SDQL stuff yesterday. He does use many more things than just one random/not random SDQL query to pick his actual plays. I went 4-0 with his stuff that I tailed as I tailed yesterday. Would have gone 6-1 had I tailed the ones I faded too (because Athletics did not loose SU or win RL).

Here are the stats behind yesterday's plays:

1. Reds (SDQL query and explanation from FUqer):

FADE: The Reds are 1-19 SU as a dog by more than 150 after Joey Votto was hitless in at least three at bats.
team=Reds and line>150 and Reds:Joey Votto:at bats>=3 and Reds:Joey Votto:hits=0 and date>=20100906

SU:	1-20 (-4.48, 4.8%)	avg line: 173.9 / -189.1	on / against: -$1,828 / +$1,815	ROI: -87.0% / +45.7%

I played the Reds in any case because all games with the same scenario but that were played before the streak shows this:

RL:	12-4 (1.56, 75.0%)	avg line: -113.8 / 103.1	on / against: +$820 / -$890	ROI: +42.7% / -50.9%

2. Athletics (SDQL query and explanation by FUqer):
FADE: The Athletics are 0-16 SU at home after playing as a home favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not a series opener.
team = Athletics and SG > 1 and p:H and p:F and o:streak <= -2 and date >= 20140810

SU:	1-16 (-2.71, 5.9%)	avg line: -132.4 / 120.5	on / against: -$2,128 / +$1,973	ROI: -90.7% / +108.2%

I played the Athletics because all games with the same scenario but that were played before the streak shows this:

RL:	45-42 (-0.07, 51.7%)	avg line: 133.6 / -147.6	on / against: +$1,864 / -$2,385	ROI: +20.0% / -18.0%

3. White Sox (SDQL query and explanation by FUqer:
FADE: The White Sox are 0-21 SU as a 155+ dog after a game in which their opponent left fewer than ten men on base.
team = White Sox and line>155 and po:LOB < 10 and season >= 2011

SU:	0-22 (-4.00, 0.0%)	avg line: 176.5 / -195.5	on / against: -$2,200 / +$2,200	ROI: -100.0% / +51.2%

I played the White Sox because all games with the same scenario but that were played before the streak shows this:

RL:	9-6 (1.17, 60.0%)	avg line: -124.9 / 109.4	on / against: +$215 / -$260	ROI: +11.4% / -16.8%

So basically, I am looking for trends that dont make sense but have had a huge streak while showing the opposite results when looking at the time before the streak started. I just need to find the games where the streak is the most likely to end. Not an easy task of course.

[Scrivero]

Yeah ... It's admirable that you're trying to find unique angles, but if all of them are like outlined in the OP then they are indeed "streaks that make no sense" and pretty much nonsense trends IMO. It's a nice streak indeed, but I would not say it's indicative of future success.

With criteria like these you can find 1000s of trends every day, and many of them will go opposite each other.

You are exactly correct, the streaks dont make sense. And they should end, they really should but some do not, some do. Im playing agaisnt the streaks.

So yes, I am trying to break those streaks as they make no sense. And I need to start finding the streaks that make the least sense, if that would be a criteria for the streak to end.

That is why I am also thinking about how to make this a chase. That I would chase the bets/scenarios that I had yesterday next time they come around. Would be just quite a lot of work to check each day for each streak to see whether there is a play that day or not. Also, backtesting this is difficult so chasing could be rather expensive.

Thanks for the comment as well, the more I have to think about this system's validity, the quicker I notice whether it works or not. The system will either end up being good or bad. If it ends up being bad, then its better to notice it as soon as possible and save money by ending the system.

Edit. Its a good point about there being also trends that go opposite each other. I cant of course take all trends into consideration butit would be good to have many trnds per game available and to check them all.

[RockBottom]

This is my second MLB thread, and actually my second today. This needs a new thread because the other thread is me trying to come up with innovative approaches and SDQL queries to win money.

THIS THREAD also uses SDQL but not in the same way.

In this thread I will end streaks that make no sense, and win loads of cash (hopefully)! And so will you, if you tail (hopefully).

In this thread we will not go against streaks that make sense, such as Team X has won Team Y 15 times in a row when they are playing home against them. That makes sense, as Team X is probably just a great home team and Team Y probably just sucks away. One shouldnt go against streaks, quite the opposite.

Here is though an example of a streak that does not make sense and which we will go against:

The Reds are 1-19 SU as a dog by more than 150 after Joey Votto was hitless in at least three at bats.

That streak is found by FUqer in his MLB thread here: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...2017-a-p2.html

So that streak does not make sense AND when one checks the games before the streak started, the ROI for Reds to win RL (+1,5) is actually +42,7 %, while it was +62,6 % to FADE Reds RL (-1,5) during the streak.

So thats it: We will try break streaks that dont make sense AND that seem to be the opposite in ROI before the streak started.

The first play for today is:
Reds RL (+1,5) -102, 1 unit. AND I apologize for posting it to this thread late. It was an early game and I just started this system like 30 minutes ago. I will post ca 4-6 more picks for tonight later. Just need to check all the streaks that FUqer has found and check if there would be a streak to end.

If you know or find some strange streaks, then please post them! I will have to trust on other people finding the streaks that I will play against, I dont know how to find them myself, yet.

Lets break some streaks and win some cash!

BY THE WAY: We might, just might make this a chase too in some way. We would need to find a way backtest streaks ending before doing that though.

A trend that makes sense is the Cubs 17-4 last 21 in Cincinnati, more important than anything else.

[Scrivero]

A trend that makes sense is the Cubs 17-4 last 21 in Cincinnati, more important than anything else.

Thats pretty solid. I will have to take that and a few other "solid" trends and run them for each match that Im going to play to see if that opposite trend makes the game actually not playable anymore.

Back rather shortly with tonights picks. What do you guys think, do you always want the SDQL reasoning behind each pick posted on this thread or shall I just post the picks?

[MJ4thQuarter92]

Be a gay midget. Short and sweet.

[juicername]

Thats pretty solid. I will have to take that and a few other "solid" trends and run them for each match that Im going to play to see if that opposite trend makes the game actually not playable anymore.

Back rather shortly with tonights picks. What do you guys think, do you always want the SDQL reasoning behind each pick posted on this thread or shall I just post the picks?

I would like to see the SDQL queries if you don't mind posting them. Just a simple copy/paste, no need to write it out with words if that's time consuming

[Scrivero]

Thanks for the wish for only the post! I will keep track of what people wish and go with that, I take yesterday's 2dabank's post as a wish to keep longer stuff posted. Hence I will still post all the stuff until one more person wishes to just get the picks and not all the info.

And we will try the chase stuff. We even have our first chase tonight with Athletics RL. I think we will from now on play just SU or RL +1,5 and no more RL -1,5 but we will keep that in the chase with the Athletics. We will though play the RL -1,5 if the odds for SU are too low for my taste (-180 or less at least).

I will have to see what to do with the chase unit sizes, as I have never done a chase before. But most likely it will be 1, 2, 4 units and chase is done after 3 bets. Need to think about that. Also need to think whether to end a chase if there are things coming up about the team vs the next team if the scenario is the same but opposite trends are affecting the play negatively.

So chase picks for tonight, 2 units each:
1. Athletics RL -1,5 +160

SDQL query and explanation by FUqer:
FADE: The Athletics are 0-16 SU at home after playing as a home favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not a series opener.
team = Athletics and SG > 1 and p:H and p:F and o:streak <= -2 and date >= 20140810

SU:	1-16 (-2.71, 5.9%)	avg line: -132.4 / 120.5	on / against: -$2,128 / +$1,973	ROI: -90.7% / +108.2%

I played the Athletics because all games with the same scenario but that were played before the streak shows this:

RL:	45-42 (-0.07, 51.7%)	avg line: 133.6 / -147.6	on / against: +$1,864 / -$2,385	ROI: +20.0% / -18.0%

The normal/start of chase picks, 1 unit each:
1. Indians RL -1,5 -113

SDQL query and explanation by FUqer:
PLAY: The White Sox are 21-0 RL as a 160+ dog after they allowed six-plus runs.
team=White Sox and 160<=line and 6<=po:runs and date >= 20130600

RL:	21-0 (3.31, 100.0%)	avg line: -110.3 / 100.5	on / against: +$2,166 / -$2,240	ROI: +90.6% / -100.0%

I faded the White Sox because all games with the same scenario but that were played before the streak shows this:

RL:	8-12 (-0.10, 40.0%)	avg line: -118.0 / 104.0	on / against: -$613 / +$488	ROI: -25.6% / +23.1%

Note that even if we played against the Indians yesterday it is because the scenario is now different than yesterday. We will chase the White Sox to win with 2 units next that previous scenario comes up again.

Record: 0-3: -3 units.
Finished chases: 0
Chases going on: 3

I might still change the structure of this system but right now I like the idea of the chase. Tonight we have not yet taken into account any opposite trends either, just did not have the time to do it. We will try to take more trends into consideration in the near future.

[Scrivero]

I would like to see the SDQL queries if you don't mind posting them. Just a simple copy/paste, no need to write it out with words if that's time consuming

THanks for the wish! I will keep posting them. I will also post the words to describe the SDQL queries as the descriptions (and the SDQL queries) are not from me, but from FUqer. I simply put the SDQL queries to Killersports, then I copy the results here. Then I check teh results from the time before the streak started and I copy those results here as well. Its not very timetaking with so few picks at the moment so I will keep doing it

[FUqer]

Just a few thoughts if you're going to try to bust some streaks. Go against streaks like the 0-16 SU for the A's because they were hot and playing a cold team, but be wary of trying to bust streaks like the 1-19 SU for the Reds who are a bad team playing against the defending champs.

In general, I pay more attention to good trends to play on bad teams and bad trends to fade good teams. It means more to me if the Braves have a big streak than the Cubs. I don't really care if the SDQL is the Braves are 20-0 when their manager wears pink underwear, I'm going to at least consider it, if the price is right. If a team is over -130, I rarely ever play, regardless of any SDQL.

[keel44]

When you play against something, you need a valid reason. Going against something that makes no sense does not make it a valid reason.

No sense's opposite is not sense-able

[Scrivero]

Just a few thoughts if you're going to try to bust some streaks. Go against streaks like the 0-16 SU for the A's because they were hot and playing a cold team, but be wary of trying to bust streaks like the 1-19 SU for the Reds who are a bad team playing against the defending champs.

In general, I pay more attention to good trends to play on bad teams and bad trends to fade good teams. It means more to me if the Braves have a big streak than the Cubs. I don't really care if the SDQL is the Braves are 20-0 when their manager wears pink underwear, I'm going to at least consider it, if the price is right. If a team is over -130, I rarely ever play, regardless of any SDQL.

Thanks for the tips! Im gonna have to start taking this stuff from you and others into a streak breaking/continuing manual.

@keel44: I think that made sense, kind of, and it actually did. Probably have to think of more valid reasons to go against the streaks than just the time before the streak.

[Scrivero]

Well, I must say that.... Im not gonna continue this without backtesting this. If I come up with a way to backtest this. I was honestly making loads of money just tailing FUqer but then I went and FUqered it by starting to fade the guy partly So this fun experiment ended with minus 6 units. I somehow still managed to stay at ca +-0 units by tailing the other leans from FUqer.

I think I might just bury this idea once and for all. BUT, I already have a new idea brewing up. Coming soon, in all theathres... With that said, I might return to this thread one time in the future.