[CappinTerp]

This afternoon,I made a bet that was a push. This compelled me to write this post,hoping it may benefit/ help the newer gamblers of the SBR family. I have been speculating on games for 40 years. This does not mean that I am good or know a lot,it just means that I have been doing this for a long time and seen a lot of things happen. In the 4 major sports,Baseball,Football,Basketball and Hockey,There is no harder # to bet in all sports,than betting a over/under total of 8.5 in baseball ! ! It is uncanny how many times a baseball game falls on the number 8 or 9!! For the 1st time in 3 years I bought a 1/2 of a run(from 8.5 to 8 ) and had to lay -125 (the most juice I will lay for a total) Don't get me wrong, I am not saying....do not go over/under a 8.5 number, I am only saying over the course of the season,look at it and be aware of it!! As we all know,no matter who is pitching,no matter if both teams are hitting or not...on any given total on any given day,a game may end up 2-1 or 9-8..or any other possibility of #'s. Maybe it's just me and bad luck with that 8.5 total ??........ Guys please chime in,if others have this happen.


I have not been posting that much lately....so I'am going to add one more thing,for the newer guys,cause when I started gambling , I got killed and there was not that much info. around,like today! I have made every mistake in the book, like most that are new to gambling....so just 1 more thing....There is no right or wrong with this,it's just how one looks at risk. DO NOT LAY heavy chalk, just because a team is -200,does not mean they are going to win!! You will have many,many opportunities to make or loose $.....When there is a full slate of baseball games,there are +250 ways to bet! My limit to taking risk in baseball,is not to lay more than -135 ! !.......Come on,think of it....laying 35% or more on your hard earned money!!
Look at it this way,take out the two best and worst team in MLB......there is really very little difference between the other teams !! Let's look at IT ! !......If a team has a so-so year,they will loose 80 games, if a team has a good year,they will loose 70 games ! ! AND if a team has a great year,they will loose 60 games!! Wrap it all up....not much of a difference......SO DO NOT LAY A LOT OF CHALK!!!!!!!........Sorry it was this long a write-up, but I hope it helps or give reason for more reflection for you newer guys!........................​A profitable season to all! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!.........BOL

[Conqueror]

Nice take. Thanks!

[vegaschulo]

Thanks for the info..BOL this season. .

[CONNEMARA]

CappinTerp, Thank You for taking the time to open my eyes a little wider. Your info is at the top of the list. BOL to you sir!!!!

[TechnicalTrader]

Dating back to the start of 2013 season, 9987 games have been played, only 1805 of them hit a total of 8 (8%) or 9 (10%) runs. The most common totals are 5 and 7, hitting at 11% and 12%.

YTD, 8 and 9 totals have hit the most, both hitting at exactly 10% 13 of 130 games.

I hope this info in some way can help.

[CappinTerp]

Dating back to the start of 2013 season, 9987 games have been played, only 1805 of them hit a total of 8 (8%) or 9 (10%) runs. The most common totals are 5 and 7, hitting at 11% and 12%.

YTD, 8 and 9 totals have hit the most, both hitting at exactly 10% 13 of 130 games.

I hope this info in some way can help.

Thanks for doing the work,I guess it's me and back luck with that #.....I have two more things to point out....then I,
'AM DONE.................................... ........................................ ..........GL

[clockwise]

Apr 10 12:57 PM by: INTERNET

167286289

MLB

Apr 10 01:08 PM

STRAIGHT BET [920] TOTAL u8½-120 (TB RAYS vrs NY YANKEES) ( A. COBB -R / M. PINEDA -R )

600/500

LOSE LOSE

-600

Ticket Nş. [64175525]
Status	Risk	Win	Amount Paid	Description	Visit Score	Home Score	Ticket Time
Lose	315	300	-315	0919 TAM RAYS 04/10 / 0920 NY YANKEES 04/10 Total Und 8 -105 [VP: A COBB -R - HP: M PINEDA -R] on MLB [1;8	1	8	4/10/2017 10:04:24 AM

tell me about it...bad beat? or just gotta cover the total?

[BarstoolProphet]

With my experience I tend to bet alternative lines that get me off of even numbers.

Ex: If I like a game to go over 7.5 . I will go ahead and buy into the over 8.5.

The logic for me is the tie. Yes I know there are many ways to land on an 8 without the tie ,,however: it has worked for me in the past ,,,and worked well.

Anyway,,,when you have a score of 4-3 ,,if the trailing team scores ,,they might as well have scored 2 runs,,,bc of the tie.

I rarely, if at all play a total that is an even number,,I always buy up or down ,if available. to get me away from any ties.

Of course the same logic is applied to unders etc.

[HoleCamels]

7, 8, 9 are where most games land. Typically, I don't even consider betting under 6.5 or over 9.5. Sure you could get a low scoring game or a high scoring game any day but like you said you also never know if the pitchers or hitters will show up in each given day. For that reason I like to stay between those numbers. I also don't like betting over 7.5 because of the 4-3 finals

I think the best totals to make money on are 8, 8.5, 9s. Preferably unders. I am not so afraid of the 5-4 finals in these cases because I pick games where I don't expect both teams to score 4 runs

[CappinTerp]

One more for NEWER BETTORS: Guys, this is big...and believe me,it will make you a good bettor!! But this is the HARDEST THING TO DO !! Even with me, I speculated on the markets,when I was working....and IT STILL TOOK ME 10 YEARS TO GET IT WRIGHT!!! The hardest thing to do: Do not chase your losses!! Hey I have been there....made a big bet up 6-0 after 2 innings and up 6-1 going into the 9th...that game lost!! I was so pissed off that I bet the next game, put more $ on it..and not not do much capping for it!!....I wanted instant gratification !!.......was buried !! One thing that all of us,that gamble on sports,have in common,is that to some degree or other.....we all like TO LIVE ON THE EDGE!!! Yes you may not realize it or not,but this is true!! I could go on and on about this...but will not! Just realize that there is no rush to get it back...just chip away at it....for if you chase after it.....it WILL RUN YOU OVER!!!

To a lesser extent, power weight you games!!! And calibrate it as btwn. 1-5 units !! Think about it...if you do it 1-10 units,what is the diff. btwn a 1-2 unit play or a 6-7 unit play...???? It is very hard to do! !.......Hey guys with power weighting,I know at least for me,if I hit just 50% of my plays,I will win money. Look at it this way: At 11-10 odds the break even point is about 52.5 %. Now realize that it is almost impossible to hit 58+ %, IN THE LONG RUN!!!...does not leave much,esp. if you lay a lot of chalk.....The End....I really hope hope this helps some out there! The best of luck to all,with their betting!!!

[Deucerd]

That is a huge piece of advice cappin terp. I myself have fallen victim to the chase after losing one that ticked me off. And in your words I almost always get run over. GL to all this season.