I'm taking Detroit (also with a 5-inning bet), and the under, and then Texas (with some of it on the RL) and the under.
Reasoning: Detroit, this is a really strong team. Look what they did when they went into Washington, and compare that to what Cleveland did when they went in right after. Yes, Detroit has a weakness in their bullpen, that's always a concern. But they have a truly potent lineup, and Chuck James, he is not the kind of guy who is likely to be able to avoid getting hit by this kind of firepower. Atlanta is just not getting it done right now. They have scored 1 run in their last 4 games, combined.
True, they faced 3 very good starters in Rogers, Verlander and Beckett. But Tavarez also shut them down. And Andrew Miller is not a chump, he is a guy with potential that people are pretty high on, so this may be a good game for him to begin to excel in the majors.
Add it all up, and Detroit as a small favorite has value, IMO.
As for the under, Atlanta is a pitcher-friendly park, and the number is 9.5 at plus odds. If Atlanta continues to struggle at the plate, Detroit will probably put up a bunch but the total will stay under. I don't think the edge on the under is big, but it's solid, with decent confidence.
In the other game, the line is low because Sampson has been good and Tejeda has been bad. But Sampson is a contact pitcher, and he doesn't fare as well in hitters' parks. Tejeda, he is always a risk, but he did OK, against Houston earlier this year, and Houston is going into an offensive funk which have been prone to do for a few years now. Yes, Tejeda could walk the bases loaded in the first and Houston could come out of it with a 5-run inning, and then add 2 more in the second, and Tejeda will leave with Texas down 7-1 or something like that. But unless that happens, Texas should win, and the game should stay under 11.
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Last 2 games of the night 6-24-07
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