There is great value on the Blue Jays on the run line in this one. Take Toronto this evening at home versus the Kansas City Royals.
Kansas City grabbed the second game of this series on Tuesday thanks to four errors by the Blue Jays that led to three of the six total runs. Toronto will rebound on Wednesday as it has lost back-to-back games to the Royals only once since 2004, a span of 18 games. The Blue Jays have won eight of the last 11 meetings at home in this series with all of those wins coming in against the runline and by an average of 4.9 rpg.
Kansas City won back-to-back road games only 10 times all of last season. The Royals send Jorge De La Rosa to the hill who is coming off a surprisingly effective start against the Tigers. He went seven innings which was a career high so it definitely shows that his success has been limited throughout his career. He has never faced the Blue Jays and he could be in for rough time as Toronto is obliterating left-handed pitching. Toronto is hitting .361 on the season against lefties and has won its last three games against southpaw starters by a combined score of 23-9.
The Blue Jays counter with Gustavo Chacin who looked better in his first start than what the boxscore indicates. He allowed three home runs, all solo shots, but was able to induce 10 groundouts as his on his tempo throughout the spring definitely showed. He has always pitched well at home especially in this situation. He is 10-2 against the run line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons and is 7-0 against the run line in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.
The Royals are just 13-28 against the run line in road games against the American League East over the last three seasons while Toronto is 24-9 against the run line in home games against teams that are averaging less than a home run per game over the last three seasons. Play against American League road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more that are averaging less than 4.2 rpg going against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or less and a WHIP of 1.45 or less. This situation is 45-4 (91.8 percent) since 1997.
A win likely means a run line win as well. Play Toronto on the run line for a unit.
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Matt Fargo: Back the Blue Jays on the Run Line
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