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Let me2nd this. Thanks for the work Biff!Originally Posted by brucethebear
Lol.
Up 20u before the end of April posting free picks.
Not sure why you feel 1 bad day requires an apology.
I am sure I speak for most of this thread when I say that I appreciate all the efforts you go to in your threads Biff.
No wind and pretty humid. Concession guy told me wind just swirls here. Upper 60s right now. Can't find anything on umpires with my phone
Per roof hotline, showers in the area so roof expected to be closed.
Roof officially closed in Milwaukee as of 5:15 EST. Announcement led to about 5c additional juice on the under.
Umps so far:
CLE - Miller
ATL - Joyce
DET - Bucknor
.400 through 10 at bats, wow what a sample size. That is spread out over the entire first 3 weeks of a season for a guy who plays a game a week. Great back up for your arguement.
Nowhere did I say my entire reasoning for saying they are struggling was because they averaged 3.4 per game.
That stat does mean something when looking at how a team is playing for a period of time. To say that the number of runs they are ACTUALLY scoring is meaningless is absurd. Sure they have had all kinds of opportunities to score runs, every team gets tons of opportunities. My point is that they are careless on the basepaths which minimizes the affect of getting on base.
I am not making my argument based on runs per game, I threw it in when looking at the last 7-10 games. You generally look at the most recent period of time when determining if a team is "hot" or "cold" or scoring well or struggling to put up runs. You don't look at an entire season up to that point. My argument was look at the amount of runs they have put up the last week. 6 games of 4 or under and 2 of 5. Plain and simple they aren't scoring as many runs as they are capable lately.
Done arguing over this.
Good luck tonight Biff
NYM - Drake
DC - Baker
PIT - Cederstrom
waiting on
CHC
MIL
COL
OAK
LA
SEA
Both Leake and Liriano have excellent numbers with Cederstrom. Under looking tempting.
quick question. Why does the under fare better with the roof closed? Never been able to figure this out
Air doesn't move. No wind means a lot less carry.
Reds/Rats moving to 7', under -115. That's really tempting. Then again, i guess that's what i'm supposed to think.
Biff, what do you think of Nationals against LA angels? I can easily see LA angels winning this
Lean Angels and over. Angels lineup doesn't look great without DH, that's why i passed but Angels are the play here. BOL whatever you decide.
Thanks i appreciate, you too on the under for milw/pads
so it only helps the under if the wind was blowing towards the outfield before it was closed?
Passing on Reds/Rats under.
adding
1* Moneyline parlay: Tigers+ Mariners (+112)
Monday 4.21.2014 updated card
1* ML parlay: Tigers+ Mariners (+112)
1* Mets FF ML (-108)
1* Padres ML (-102)
1* Phillies ML (+100)
1* A's ML (+105)
Naw, in general, roof remains in same position day after day. It's been closed. Just having it open greatly increases scoring. It's the same dynamic in all retractable roof stadia, but per my notes, greatest impact in Milwaukee and Arizona, significant but still lesser in Miami, Toronto, Seattle.
Thanks, man. Just waiting for ump on that one. Basically have leans on all 8pmish totals, so under/over umps will makes some decisions for me. BOL tonight.
gotcha. thanks.
penetrate me sideways, it's Tim Timmons in Milwaukee. Gonna really have to ponder any under lean with him.
Reyburn at Wrigley - PASS on over
Tumpane at Coors - lean over
time for more attention to SD/MIL under, SF/COL over
Timmons 25-11 OU since start of 2013. Bah. Model puts that one around 7.5 now. Already being on Pads ML, i don't want shit to do with the non-correlated under. Still, under is the play so far as total in my opinion, just rather not be rooting for the road team with Tim Timmons plus under. Too confusing.
adding
1* Giants/Rockies over 10' (-107)
Monday 4.21.2014 updated card
1* ML parlay: Tigers+ Mariners (+112)
1* Mets FF ML (-108)
1* Padres ML (-102)
1* Giants/Rockies over 10' (-107)
1* Phillies ML (+100)
1* A's ML (+105)
BOL to all tonight.
Love the picks for today Biff let's get at er!
Out of curiosity why do you place such a high emphasis on the ump? Are the strike zones that much different from ump to ump?
yes they are.. its not coincidence that some umps can have 66% overs and some can have 66% unders.
Good picks today brah. I tailed everything except the Tigers... missed that one.oh well
What is the difference between over 10 and over 10 1/2? obviously on 10 1/2 you would need them to score 11 but on an over 10 what happens if they score 10? Is that a loss or a push?
push...
No, loss is not a push but you'll pay like 30c juice to get that push. If i were to pay -130 on a game total, it would have to be a 7 or 9.
Push
1* Mets FF ML (-108)
Good start to the evening.
Not all umps, but some, vary a great deal. It totally makes a difference. You could argue that the ump is the most important part of the game. He impacts every pitch whereas each SP likely only impacts 30-40% and obviously a position player can't impact more than about 5% or so (except maybe Yadi Molina). A guy calling 65% strikes as opposed to 60% makes a big deal because some of those pitches are at critical junctures and because it can allow or prevent a pitcher from establishing control over certain parts of the strike zone.
parlays seem impossible to hit even though you are taking huge favorites. One team always manages to blow it.
i know. i'm really starting to hate parlays. on that subject, Felix + Blackhawks live ML costs only -119!
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