[Willie Bee]

Mariners staring at basement again

It was another cellar finish, their third straight, for the Mariners last year. And it won't be a stellar season this year unless some high-priced vets come through.

It was Aug 9, 2006, and an afternoon getaway date at home against Tampa Bay was on the slate. Having won the first two games of the series the Mariners were looking for a sweep as they struggled to get back to the .500. Jarrod Washburn, signed away from their rivals down in Anaheim the previous winter was on the mound, and Seattle was pumped after winning the night before on 10th-inning walk off salami by Richie Sexson.

Washburn would need some help from Rafael Soriano and JJ Putz, but the three arms combined on a 4-hit shutout and the Mariners had the sweep with a 2-0 win. Though they were still 56-57 and last in the division, Seattle was just 5½ out of first. And as we’ve all learned in baseball over the years, anything is possible.

But while anything is possible, if only in our dreams and hopes, reality is very often cold and hard. The Mariners departed on an 11-game road trip through their division and came home 12 games below .500 after being swept first by the Rangers, then the A’s and finally the Angels. And though they would play six games over .500 after the trip, Seattle would finish last in the NL West at 78-84, 15 games south of Oakland.

Not that the division’s cellar was unexpected after the squad finished in the same slot the previous two seasons. But even though the club improved by nine games in the win column, manager Mike Hargrove, now beginning his third season at the helm, and the club was nonetheless disappointed and left to ponder all winter the woulda’s, coulda’s and shoulda’s had they brought home just a 5-6 record from that fateful road trip.

Ownership, which shelled out nearly $90 million in payroll last year, probably won’t give the same group time to ponder anything next winter should the club finish last in the division this season.

OFFENSE
While the sticks weren’t completely to blame, the offense does deserve a big chunk of the responsibility for last year. Only the Devil Rays scored fewer runs than the Mariners last season in the AL, and Seattle out-homered just four other Junior Circuit clubs on the year. That’s not something Seattle management envisioned when they inked sluggers Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre to megabuck deals prior to the ’05 campaign.

And of the 120 shutouts AL clubs suffered last year, 15 of the goose eggs belong to the Mariners. The club scored one or two runs on 30 other occasions.

Sexson and Beltre can’t shoulder the entire load, and Sexson has clubbed 73 homers to Beltre’s 44 since their arrival. But they also combined for 272 strikeouts last season, and 275 the year before. The infield corners, especially Beltre at third, need to pick up their offense this time around.

While Sexson and Beltre have been disappointing, the future for the middle of the diamond is bright after second baseman Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt completed their first full seasons in the bigs. Both need to work on their plate discipline, something that can be said for all young players. And Lopez is nursing a sore ankle from an injury in winter ball, something that bears watching this spring.

Also completing his first season in the big leagues was catcher Kenji Johjima. The import from Japan had a fine season at the plate with 18 homers and a .291 batting average, and committed just seven miscues out of over 900 chances in the field.

Johjima’s backup this year will be Rene Rivera once again, meaning Johjima will need to be in the lineup as often as possible. Infield backups will be Ben Broussard at first, Willie Bloomquist in the middle of the infield and Sean Burroughs who was inked to a minor league deal this winter. The minors is most likely where Burroughs will begin the year, especially since he injured a shoulder fishing near his home in San Diego just before the start of spring training.

Jose Vidro, acquired from the Nationals, will also see some time in the infield, possibly at first, second and third. But he’s being counted on to DH for the most part.

The outfield will find a different alignment this year than last, assuming everyone is healthy. Ichiro Suzuki will shift from right to center in order to accommodate Jose Guillen in right. Raul Ibañez will remain in left. Guillen is coming off elbow surgery, so his availability at least to start the season remains a question mark.

If Guillen can’t play the field to start the season, Suzuki will shift back to right with Jeremy Reed playing center. Mike Morse is vying for an outfield reserve role. Adam Jones is the youngster in waiting for center after the club switched him from shortstop a couple of years ago. He’s a former 1st-round pick from 2003 and should be up at some point this season, especially if the club is heading for another poor finish.

PITCHING
You hear it all the time how Seattle’s Safeco Field is the reason some of the team’s offensive numbers aren’t so high. And that ‘excuse,’ for wont of a better word, does hold some water for Mariners hitters. Of the 29 times the offense tallied eight or more runs in 2006, only 11 of those games came at home. But can someone tell me why then that of the 27 times the opposition scored at least eight times in Seattle games last year, almost half, 13, were at Safeco? Could it have something to do with their pitching?

Of course it could. Seattle pitchers finished tied for eighth in the AL with a 4.60 ERA last year. The team they were tied with? Why, Texas, the same Rangers staff that pitches half of their games in the hitter-friendly Ballpark That Dubya Built while Mariner hurlers are spending half of their games in the pitcher-friendly Safeco.

Seattle tried to address their pitching before last season by signing Washburn. But he was not the staff ace they thought they might be getting. Jarrod’s ERA was 4.67, well above the 3.20 he turned in with the Angels the previous season and slightly above the entire staff’s ERA. The lefty will have to step it up this year.

Washburn doesn’t even have to be the staff ace as that job should belong to young Felix Hernandez beginning this year. King Felix had a rough full season after his sparkling debut over 12 starts at the end of 2005, but he has reported to camp this year in much better shape and is expected to be the Opening Day starter for the M’s.

In need of pitching, especially a true veteran to at least call their staff ace, Seattle instead went out and spent more Washburn-sized money on Miguel Batista, giving the veteran about $25 million for three years, an awful lot of money on a 36-year-old who has just one 200 inning season in his arm, that coming last year when the D-backs were desperate for anyone to chew up innings. The Mariners also inked Jeff Weaver in the offseason. They’ll give Weaver about the same this year as they’re giving Batista, so that’s the bad news. But the good news is it’s only a one-year deal.

Still desperate for starting pitching, the Mariners also dealt a solid reliever in Rafael Soriano to the Braves for lefty Horacio Ramirez. Now, don’t get me wrong, especially since I think Ramirez might just fare better than either Batista or Weaver. But when was the last time Atlanta parted with a solid pitcher in a trade?

Soriano will be missed in the pen, but at least the Mariners still have JJ Putz in the closer’s role. In fact, Seattle gave the former Wolverine a nice 3-year deal to keep him in their pen at least through 2009. Putz dazzled as a closer last year, saving 36 with a 2.30 ERA and excellent 104/13 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Chris Reitsma was signed and will likely be the chief setup arm from the right side to open the season. Julio Mateo will also get some work, assuming his broken hand from last year is healed. Arthur Rhodes and George Sherrill will have the lefty work, with other names like Aaron Small and Sean Green also relief possibilities.

Key Player(s): You’ve got to figure that Ibañez is coming off his career year, so a lot of the big punch in the order is squarely on the bats of Sexson and Beltre. This isn’t Murderer’s Row, we know that. So my finger is pointed directly at Washburn and Batista as veteran arms in the rotation.

Futures: The Greek lists the win break at 79½ while Pinnacle is a game lower at 78½. Pinnacle also lists Seattle on their futures board at +1048 to win the AL West, +2993 to win the AL and +8150 to go all the way. Bodog has the Mariners at 76½ on the over-under for wins, 10:1 in the AL West, 40:1 in the AL and an even 100:1 to win the Series.

My projections are 77 wins on average, meaning Seattle is very likely going to take a step back this season.

[bigboydan]

Willie, You have a much higher projection than I have for this team. I don't see them winning more than maybe 73 games this year.

[Willie Bee]

Dan, I run computer simulations (this year 10) to help make my projections. Seattle was as low as 69 wins and as high as 80, and that is a pretty 'normal' span from worst-to-best. I tend to throw out the high and low marks, find the middle and then just go through a team's schedule to come up with my 'average.'

I'll take the over 73 for +150 if you're handing money out Plus, I know you, and you no doubt have Nightmare Boy (Jeff Weaver) going something like 2-17 with a 9.56 ERA, right?

[bigboydan]

Jarrod Washburn to be the #2 in rotation

PEORIA, Ariz. -- It's no stretch to call Jarrod Washburn's Saturday start the most troublesome of his spring, going strictly by the three runs allowed over six innings. But if a quality start that results in a win is the worst Washburn has to offer, the Mariners will gladly take it, every five days.

Most of the damage came in a fluky first inning, when a leadoff walk was followed by three hits that broke through the infield for two runs.

"Other than the leadoff walk, which I wasn't happy with at all, the rest of the inning was just all ground balls that happened to find holes," Washburn said. "I wasn't real disappointed with how it went, but obviously you'd like to start the game a little better than that. You try to get them to hit the ball on the ground, and usually good things happen, especially with guys like ours that play defense as well as they do. Those ones just found holes, and next time they'll find gloves."

A day after anointing Felix Hernandez as his Opening Day starter, manager Mike Hargrove announced the rest of the rotation. Following the right-handed Hernandez will be the left-handed Washburn, right-hander Miguel Bautista, lefty Horacio Ramirez, and right-hander Jeff Weaver.

Hargrove indicated that the final ordering had to do both with setting up lefties and righties as well as with performance.

Washburn was especially satisfied Saturday with his approach against the lefties in the lineup, holding Mark Teahen, Alex Gordon, and Ross Gload to two hits in eight at-bats.

"I was real happy today with how I threw inside to them," Washburn said. "I opened up the rest of the plate the first couple at-bats against them. I busted them inside and made them aware that I was going to do that. It looked like they had different swings and weren't quite as comfortable.

"That's going to be a big key for me this year," Washburn added. "I've worked on it now at Spring Training, and I've got to continue to do it."

In his final inning, Washburn lost a little ground to the lefties, giving up a one-hit single to Teahen then yielding a pair of two-out walks to Gordon and righty Ryan Shealy, loading the bases before getting Gload on a fly ball to center.

"I was just starting to get a little tired there," Washburn said. "Guys never like to admit that, but I'm old and beyond trying to be stupid. I'll admit that I was getting a little tired. But I was able to get out of it, which is good."

Stepping forward: Two days ago in Tucson, Hargrove challenged reliever George Sherrill, suggesting it was good time for the struggling pitcher to step up. Sherrill was sporting an 18.00 ERA in five Cactus League appearances, and had not pitched an inning without allowing a run in any of the five outings.

Sherrill took a step in the right direction Saturday, throwing a scoreless inning against the Royals, a lone walk his only blemish on the day.

"It's definitely a good start," Sherrill said. "I'm still not used to walking this many people. That's going to need to be ironed out."

But a mechanical adjustment may have helped iron out the biggest of Sherrill's problems. Focusing on shortening his arm swing, Sherrill was more aggressive in quickly moving his hands from the set position to the pitching motion.

"As short as I am, the little bit that I'm off is going to be bigger than it looks," the 6-foot right-hander said. "My arm swing's so short that it's a little deceptive and people can't see the ball as well as with somebody with a longer arm swing, so I really need to get my hands started and get them going quick."

Hargrove was pleased with the progress, noting Sherrill's adjustments resulted in more balls down in the zone, although he noted there was room to keep improving.

"He still left too many fastballs up," Hargrove said. "He was more firm, more crisp. They hit fly balls for outs and fouled a lot of pitches off, where 10 days ago they were hitting those balls out of the ballpark."

Sherrill admitted to a heightened level of anxiety in the bullpen before entering the game, not so much because he thought his job might be on the line, but because he was eager to test his adjustments.

"With me it's always been something slow and gradually turns into something drastic, and then you got to kind of restart and figure out what you were doing wrong and fix it," Sherrill said, explaining the way his struggles can lead to an overdose of anxiety as he's warming up for a game. "You figure something out that you're doing wrong, and you want to get out there as quick as possible and translate what you're doing in bullpens, what you're seeing on video into games."

Bullpen TBD: Hargrove gave a vote of confidence to Brandon Morrow, the 22-year-old spring surprise fresh out of the University of California. Morrow has yet to yield a run 7 1/3 innings covering five appearances. He's given up two hits and two walks while striking out eight.

"His talent is so dynamic that no matter what you do with him, I don't know that you really set him back or hurt him," Hargrove said Saturday. "If he were to make the ballclub and pitch out of our bullpen that's not the worst thing. Here's a kid that threw in a major college program, and closed for that program, so he pitched in tough spots. He seems to be a fairly mature, self-possessed guy, especially for a young guy. If he continues to throw the way he's thrown, I know what my recommendation would be."

On deck: The Mariners head into Phoenix to take on the A's with Jorge Campillo toeing the rubber for his first Cactus League start.