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Can anyone provide info on lines that have moved at least 25 cents this year?
Seems like if you take a team that has had a line move at least 25 cents in its favor, it literally never wins.
Twins opened at -105, closed around -135/-140 -- another loser.
Any way of backtracking this?
This Gibson kid's a disaster. Allowing a run per inning at home, opponents batting nearly .400 against him in Minneapolis, yet the line moved that much in the Twins' favor.
angels vs. royals, may 23. 30 pt movement in favor of angels. angels won. I get you though, it seems so blatant at times.
I would honestly guess fading this movement would result in about a 65-70% win rate. No exaggeration.Originally Posted by TwoWays
It would be a little tricky because you'd have to screen out all the line moves that came as a result of pitching changes.
If you remove those, there probably haven't been more than 25-30 all season.
I don't get it... Day in and day out in baseball one, two, three, 4 swings change an entire ball game and people actually fall for this line movement bs? I can't believe people actually base their bets on "line movement" or "I was gonna bet this team but everyone bet them." Line movement means nothing...... One swing changes the entire game, one error changes the entire game, one bad pitch changes the entire game.. One bad call, anything
True dat. Yesterday I had Indians/A's U8.5. A's were leading 5-3 in the bottom of the 8th inning. Two outs with runners on 1st and 2nd, batter hits a routine ball to 1B Nick Swisher for the easiest possible out to end the inning, then I just have to get through the top of the 9th. Swisher commits an error and a runner scores. Of course, the top of the 9th ended up being an easy 3-up, 3-down, so I would have won the bet absent the error by Swisher.
That's actually probably not a great example because I was only covering by half a run. But the other day I had the U8.5 in the Angels/Yankees game, there were 4 total runs into the 8th inning, Boone Logan loads the bases and then gives up a two-out grand slam, and even then I'm still covering by half a run, Girardi pulls Logan and puts in Joba f*cking Chamberlain who gives up another run to kill me.
exactly... people try and be way 2 sharp and end up losing more bets than winning.. line movement means nothing in any sport. if that were the case that means vegas calls miguel cabrera before the game and says hey miggy any time theres a runner in scoring position make sure u dont get a hit. its pathetic man comeeeee on
You must be new...lol...logic rarely prevails here.
Actually his argument is half right. Line movement doesn't mean anything unless you admit you don't know what you're doing and can't cap a game yourself. If the public moves a line then who cares? If a sharp moves a line then who cares? Just find a +EV situation and make the bet.
However the argument about one swing changing things makes no sense to me. What does that have to do with anything? Is the point that MLB results are pure luck?
how does the argument one swing changing the game not make sense 2 u? some people will go with a play because the line tells them "vegas gods have thrown me a sign that this team will win today". yet you sit there and watch the game and watch your pitcher get shelled, or watch one home run, or watch one swing change the entire game.. and actually betting has alot more luck 2 do than actual capping. I could care less.. any game this season that was decided by 1-2 runs can have gone either way... ONE swing changes the entire game.. line means nothing, u can cap a game as much as u want at the end of the day its one or 2 randoms in that 1-9 lineup that control the outcome with one swing
Cinci line yesterday moved about 30 cents in their favor. Cinci smoked the Brewers. Maybe just a case of looking for patterns where it doesn't exist.
So I was right, when I said "is the point that MLB results are pure luck?" So now my new question, why are you even on this site?? I mean if you believe what you say I don't think you understand how averages work and the difference long periods of sample have on the affect on outcomes. I mean you could be playing blackjack in a casino and hit on 20 and draw an ace to win with 21. Just saying one swing of the bat or 1 card out of the deck or however you want to put it is terrible argument.
Line movement does not control anything... Line movement doesn't control how many walks a pitcher gives, how many strikeouts he has, how many innings he goes.. Nothing. Baseball does have trends but any team can win on any given night .
Very good post.
Jeff, you're wasting your time.
line movement is an indicator of money coming in. when there is a 25 cent move, a lot of money came in on one side. the majority of money happened to be wrong today.
LoL, I tried. Too many because it might happen you better bet it mentalities.
Oh and it's funny because he replied to me and started explaining line movement like I don't understand when the very first thing I said was "Actually his argument is half right. Line movement doesn't mean anything unless you admit you don't know what you're doing and can't cap a game yourself. If the public moves a line then who cares? If a sharp moves a line then who cares? Just find a +EV situation and make the bet." So I completely agreed with him on that part.
Reds opened at -170, closed at -145, already up 4-0 tonight.
Yet another example of an easy cash fading big line movement.
No cash yet need 9 innings for that (well 8.5 in this one hopefully).
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