[sausageman13]

If you are frustrated getting bounced around with inexplicable losses and lucky wins in baseball, trying to make money chasing teams in systems, or spending lots of energy capping volume and coming up short, then this thread is for you. I am tired of all of the above too! I read lots of threads and cap everyday, some days good, some days not so good. So this is my attempt to develop a system. Note I said develop. This has not been backtested or even tried yet by me. This is a parlay system that I am in the process of developing. I have no idea whether it will work or not, so Caveat Emptor, Buyer beware. Tail or don't. Please keep your observations positive if possible, any contributions will be welcome. I will post rules here, and I may develop additional filters. I am playing a $25 unit. Choose your own units. I may labby later, for now I will just flat bet my 1 unit. If I choose to labby later I will post my labby line. I will post the odds I play from 5 Dimes, the book I use. Fee free to use whatever book or multiple books you choose. I will try to post each play as early as possible probably before noon CST USA. I am just an average Joe capper, I don't claim to be any smarter than anyone else, don't have any particular math background, but I do follow all major sports (my best results are in Hockey), and want to contribute positively to this forum. Good luck to any and all that follow. I don't have an unlimited bankroll so I will post this as long as I win. If I lose, I will assume you have too, and it will be time to cease posting and go back to the drawing board. I am only responsible for my own wins and losses, you are responsible for yours as well.


Here are the rules I have tried to keep them simple:

1. Limit Parlay to 3 teams Max, many plays will be 2 teamers.

2. All Plays are Money Line Home Favorites -150 or higher

3. Home Favorite Starting Pitchers are Top 20 Rated by Jeff Sagarin USA Today http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm

4. No play on any team 1st Home Game off Road Trip

5. Play Against Teams that have previously lost and have a losing record following a loss (use ScoresandOdds.com or Covers.com for this info)

6. Play Against Teams that have losing record vs upcoming Pitcher's throwing arm (Lefty or Righty) I will use this as a filter of last resort, in other words even though I prefer this as an official filter it may limit are plays significantly. So I will test this and may eliminate, but initially this filter will be in affect. All filters must be in affect to be considered a "System Play".

In fairness I will explain my biases in developing these rules so everyone can understand my assumptions and thought process. I have made money in Parlays before (and lost) and generally find that anything over 3 teamers are a waste of time and money in the long run. By combining good solid Home favorites that have a high probability of winning and therefore laying high juice, allows us the opportunity to lower that juice significantly. While Road Favs win too, they don't offer value for this system, they are generally below -150. Jeff Sagarin's Pitcher ratings have been used for a long time and are reliable, easy to use and understand. Generally I find that even good solid favorites coming home after a road trip don't often play their best in their first home game regardless of who they play. They are humans and need some time to readjust off the road. I like 2nd game plays much better. I don't have any empirical data to back that up, just a feeling. I am sure someone has tracked this. If you have that data and wish to share wonderful. Just because an opponent has a prior loss does not necessarily represent any value for us, so the filter is enhanced. Many teams play well off losses and do win. But playing a team off a loss, that consistently loses after a prior loss represents value, especially against a strong home favorite. And lastly any team that has a losing record this year against a pitching side (Lefty, Righty) serves as a final filter.

That's it those are the initial rules. I will continue to tweak this, add or eliminate filters as we progress. Let's be civil with each other on this thread. I hate unproductive lurkers that have nothing positve to add. If you are one of those people go to another thread. My motive in doing this thread is to develop a system over time that will make money pure and simple. Be patient, be positive, add what you can, and tail at your own risk.

I will highlight previous day winner in green and loser in red and track record daily.
Gl to all and thanks for following the thread.

Sausageman13

Here is today's 3 Team Parlay for Friday 7/12/2013

Yanks vs. Twins -170
Dodgers vs. Rockies -260
DiamondBacks vs. Brewers -160

$25.00/$65.34

For illustration purposes I will add the backup to this bet for illustrative purposes. I will only do this for the 1st post. After that I will assume you either trust that I did this or you should do this for your self to verify.

Yanks v Twins: (-170, Kuroda #5 Sagarin ratings, Yanks not off Road trip, Twins lost Thursday 4-3, Twins 20-30 after a loss this year, 30-42 against Righties)

Dodgers vs Rockies (-260, Kershaw #1 Sagarin ratings, Dodgers not off Road trip, Rockies lost Thursday 6-1, Rockies 23-25 after a loss, 13-23 vs Lefties)

DBacks vs Brewers (-160, Corbin #8 Sagarin ratings, Dbacks not off Road trip, Brewers lost Thursday 5-3, Brewers 20-33, 9-23 against Lefties)

[sausageman13]

Need to Go Back to the Drawing Room on this, filters are too restrictive. No plays for tomorrow. Only Pirates vs. Mets qualifies as a play under current rules. Stay tuned though I will be back after some more thought and a re-tooled system.

Friday 7/12/13 results:

Yanks v Twins
Dodgers v Rockies
DBacks v Brewers

0-1 (-25.00)

[Winning oasis]

Agreed. Too restrictive. Good start though. Try 3 a day. I have been doing a small parlay system for a while. As long as you hit 1 of 3 or 1 of 4 its profitable. You'll start throwing in a RL in occasionally and then get a good line that gets you a better return. I have hit a couple 25/250 25/230 parlays that help. Unfortunately, the heavy juice plays -240 -260 you feel confident in as a "lock" are the ones that usually surprise you. My advice, don't put the same team in multiple parlays. You NEVER know which team will dump on any given day and when you think you have the "lock" and try to use it as one of your "guaranteed" winners.... you lose all the parlays of course. Just my humble advice, not trying to say I have it figured out or that I am killing it. I am in the green luckily this season and just having fun and trying to help your probability for success also with what I have been through. I use the same unit as you and I have started throwing in a single team daily between a +110 and - 130 line for a change. good luck brother.

[sausageman13]

Agreed. Too restrictive. Good start though. Try 3 a day. I have been doing a small parlay system for a while. As long as you hit 1 of 3 or 1 of 4 its profitable. You'll start throwing in a RL in occasionally and then get a good line that gets you a better return. I have hit a couple 25/250 25/230 parlays that help. Unfortunately, the heavy juice plays -240 -260 you feel confident in as a "lock" are the ones that usually surprise you. My advice, don't put the same team in multiple parlays. You NEVER know which team will dump on any given day and when you think you have the "lock" and try to use it as one of your "guaranteed" winners.... you lose all the parlays of course. Just my humble advice, not trying to say I have it figured out or that I am killing it. I am in the green luckily this season and just having fun and trying to help your probability for success also with what I have been through. I use the same unit as you and I have started throwing in a single team daily between a +110 and - 130 line for a change. good luck brother.

Thanks for the good advice and support I will keep plugging away, appreciate the words of wisdom.

[DeezusWINSTREAKT]

If ur gonna make a system u may wanna try with fake numbers or units for awhile first see how wit goes

[Artieaa]

Hey mate you may want to try round robins when playing 3 teamers, it may happen like friday when you hit 2 teams and one loss kill your whole parlay, round robin may give you the same profit than a 3 teamer obviuosly hitting the 3 teams, losses would be less hitting 2 of the 3 teams, just need to divide in 3 stacks your unit and put 1 stack each of your round robin, anyway just my opinion, good luck and hope this model works for you!!!!!!