[Big Bear]

Fade them every game

[Big Bear]

is there a bet that you can bet against them making the playoffs??

this team is not capable of making the playoffs... i love'em but the truth is they cant hit worth shit and they are all scared of success. They are and always will be a losing franchsie.

[pattymayo]

Get a job big bear

[Big Bear]

Get a job big bear

at work right now

[Smoke]

Bear are you a bartender?/

[visualrealism]

Lol bar tender requires personality. He is a bus boy

[Big Bear]

Lol bar tender requires personality. He is a bus boy

haha nah i work in an office as a telemarketer

[Smoke]

Yes busboy makes more sense. Bear keep them tables clean

[Big Bear]

Yes busboy makes more sense. Bear keep them tables clean

i have bussed tables before like 10 years ago

[stikymess]

Bear so you are assuming the bucks aren't for real?

[Big Bear]

Bear so you are assuming the bucks aren't for real?

They are talented especially with pitching but i dont think they can finish a season.

They do this every year.

When it comes down to it the Reds and Cardinals will burry them.

[stikymess]

They are talented especially with pitching but i dont think they can finish a season.

They do this every year.

When it comes down to it the Reds and Cardinals will burry them.

Not sure they do this every year, 4-5 years ago there were an auto fade on the road.

I'm here in Phoenix, so pulling for Dbacks, BUT bucks would be a great story.

[Big Bear]

Not sure they do this every year, 4-5 years ago there were an auto fade on the road.

I'm here in Phoenix, so pulling for Dbacks, BUT bucks would be a great story.

u confident that D-Backs win tonight?

[JMon]

Actually not a bad proposition, that is based off history.. Doesn't mean it will not change this year

Pirates SU, month>=August (only one profitable year) Since 2004 they are 193-324 (-9288) (+8.6 ROI on the fade)

2012 20-39 (-2433)
2011 18-38 (-1605)
2010 21-38 (-809)
2009 18-41 (-1710)
2008 17-37 (-1305)
2007 26-32 (-315)
2006 27-29 (+640)
2005 23-34 (-480)
2004 23-36 (-1190)

[NJN86]

Just watching MLB Network and they had the President of the SABR society on ranking pitching staffs. He had the bucs staff at #20 - saying they measure well on all traditional metrics but on SABR stats they don't. Arguing that although they don't give up a lot of runs they don't throw a lot of strikes, walk a lot of batters, put a lot of runners on base, and don't pitch deep into games.... So this would support Bear's 2H fade plans.

[OhMyEli]

Id wait until late July or early August. Theyve collapsed the past two years, they will be better so not immediately after the ASG

[Big Bear]

They need another hitter and then maybe i will call them a contender.

Giancarlo Stanton maybe?

[Smoke]

no idea

you made a stupid post

just call it how i see it guey

0.00001% chance lebron returns as long as gilbert owns the team and brown is coaching FACT

[keel44]

Depends if the odds compensate for them being good. I think they are still under valued. I think you should do like this.

Follow the last result. Take advantage either way

Fade the Pirates every game. Increase risk amount 2% after you win. Decrease risk amount 1% after you lose. This is geared more towards the collapse taking place.

[statnerds]

great strategy, enjoy going broke

Just watching MLB Network and they had the President of the SABR society on ranking pitching staffs. He had the bucs staff at #20 - saying they measure well on all traditional metrics but on SABR stats they don't. Arguing that although they don't give up a lot of runs they don't throw a lot of strikes, walk a lot of batters, put a lot of runners on base, and don't pitch deep into games.... So this would support Bear's 2H fade plans.

how the fukk does that guy have a job? of course their staff sucks, i mean who wants a pitching staff that leads in meaningless stats like ERA (1 in MLB), WHIP (1 in MLB), Slg Pct (1 in MLB), Hits (1 in MLB), OBA (1st in MLB)...

no way any of those equate to wins...

i am concerned about the lack of inn pitched by starters leading to increased inn by bullpens, but i don't have time to do research indepth like that at the moment. as far as by month or QS by month.

deeper staff this year should have less burn out that years past and they have much more options now. notice how J-Mac pitched LY even after it was clear he was done? where is he this year? last year there were zero options. this year they can run Gomez, Locke, Cole out there. this pitching staff rolled right along losing their three best pitchers from last year, Burnett for a while, J Mac gone and Karstens yet to start a single game.

The only thing that will derail them is the subpar hitting if they run into a string of tough pitching.

i would actually entertain this idea depending on the outcome of the 5 game set with Cards at the end of July into August.

a 1-4 or 0-5 might be enough to shatter a fragile team.

[JMon]

Depends if the odds compensate for them being good. I think they are still under valued. I think you should do like this.

Follow the last result. Take advantage either way

Fade the Pirates every game. Increase risk amount 2% after you win. Decrease risk amount 1% after you lose. This is geared more towards the collapse taking place.

With my post above..last year the average line was (-108.2). Notice the monetary fade value last year! The only year since 2004 they were favs on average (month>=8). It will be interesting to see what happens this year and what the linemaker's give them.

[LordVodka]

They're always at #1 in their division at some point and then fall fast. They lost 4 in a row recently. This will happen more and more after the break. They're the type of team that can easily go on a 10 game losing streak.

[statnerds]

Actually not a bad proposition, that is based off history.. Doesn't mean it will not change this year

Pirates SU, month>=August (only one profitable year) Since 2004 they are 193-324 (-9288) (+8.6 ROI on the fade)

2012 20-39 (-2433)
2011 18-38 (-1605)
2010 21-38 (-809)
2009 18-41 (-1710)
2008 17-37 (-1305)
2007 26-32 (-315)
2006 27-29 (+640)
2005 23-34 (-480)
2004 23-36 (-1190)

but you aren't getting those numbers above. what would a 7c, 10c, 20c line do to the numbers? agreed, LY would have prob been profitable given, the years 2011 and prior, depending on Market Timing and price, little to no profit.

[Chi_archie]

Negative nelly reverse jinx?

ive been fading them for about two weeks. I think I started before they won their 7th straight game in the 9 game win streak

[BennyBigNuts]

Pirates are by FAR the best fade of the 2nd half. Was going to write up a thread on it during the break.

[blackbox]

Just a heads up- Pirates/Cards play each other quite a few times after the break-watching close,however both are going to the post season. gl all.

[Chi_archie]

I mean its every year that the Pirates have a winning record after the all star break and then lose a ton of games right?

[JMon]

I mean its every year that the Pirates have a winning record after the all star break and then lose a ton of games right?