[threeg5]

20-6 last 2 days for laughs paper trail if you want.

sf-cin a push even out all the way down
would take cin because of home field only do not and did not play
det over sea
phi over ari
col over was
bos over tor
tb over bal
ana over cle but will be close
nym over atl
fla over hou close game
Stl over SD
LAd over ChC could be close


someone will undoubtedly let me know how this turns out

[threeg5]

det over sea
phi over ari
col over was
bos over tor
tb over bal
ana over cle but will be close they got blasted
nym over atl
fla over hou close game
Stl over SD
LAd over ChC could be close

That make it 7-3 for the day and 27-9 for 3 days

[threeg5]

ok folks lets see what comes of this

pit over cin
was over mil
sea overcle
ana over tor
phi over nym
nyy over bos
fla over atl
tb over tex
hou over ari
kc over min
chw over bal
sf over col
stl over sd
oak over det
lad over chc

[threeg5]

ok folks lets see what comes of this

pit over cin
was over mil
sea overcle
ana over tor
phi over nym
nyy over bos
fla over atl
tb over tex
hou over ari
kc over min
chw over bal
sf over col
stl over sd
oak over det
lad over chc

pit over cin
was over mil
sea over cle
ana over tor
phi over nym
nyy over bos
fla over atl
tb over tex
hou over ari
kc over min
chw over bal
sf over col
stl over sd
oak over det
lad over chc

[head_strong]

keep it going threeg5.....

[threeg5]

so that makes for a 7-7 day 50%
and 34-16 total for a 66.6%
well hell
not bad for goofing I'll keep going see how it comes out
sure wish i would've noticed this earlier in the year.

[head_strong]

So are you betting actual money or just recording this to see how you'd be doing.....If it's "just for fun" you might want to start betting actual money.

[threeg5]

ok so I started looking to see if maybe I was just winding up picking the favs on these and hitting ok.
I found out that i was not.
so here is today with my "system picks" +notes
my "system" by the way is i guess the calibration system where you compare the expected w/l to the actual w/l and fade the team that is furthest from even or 1. i guess that's the best way to say it. the system. I mean that sometimes a team is 10% over achieving while the other team is 6% under achieving so in theory the 10% should get the nod but the 6% winds up the pick. like mil against was today Make sense? probably not. anyways lets see how this goes and i think it will be good into the 1st or 2nd week of sept or so when the title teams really start swinging
8-22-09
ana over tor angels are the fav
cubs over the dodgers cubs are the fav
nyy over bos nyy are the fav
cin over pit cin is the dog
mil over was mil is the dog against system was good chance to win
hou over ari hou is the dog against system ari good chance to win
chw over bal chw is the fav
sea over cle sea is the dog
tex over tb tex is the dog
phi over nym phi is the fav
kc over min -110 both lines hmm (against system min good chance to win)
sf over col sf is the dog (these teams came within .001 of each other which so far has been a close game for the past 3 days on these types)
det over oak det is the fav
stl over sd stl is the fav (both of these teams are overachieving by numbers stand points so I went with stl because they are actually over achieving less the sd and sd needs to lose some to get back in line with 1)

by the way does anyone know what the early early line on stl was?
and sorry for the rambling on this post just thought i would put down some of the thoughts

[G's pks]

so that makes for a 7-7 day 50%
and 34-16 total for a 66.6%
well hell
not bad for goofing I'll keep going see how it comes out
sure wish i would've noticed this earlier in the year.

Here we only post records of plays posted here before games... I would not include games you did not post here...

Looks like 14-10?

[G's pks]

Also instead of editing posts with your plays...you might want to hit the quote button right next to the edit button...that way no one will question your picks... GL 14-10 here is a good start... G.

[threeg5]

So are you betting actual money or just recording this to see how you'd be doing.....If it's "just for fun" you might want to start betting actual money.

Just figured it out toward the end of the season wanted to post it to be accountable for it first. after the next day or 2 I dont think it will wrok very well. But I got spreadsheets with the formulas in there (man I wsh I knew how to write a program that would scrape mlb.com for certain numbers)

Here we only post records of plays posted here before games... I would not include games you did not post here...

Looks like 14-10?

Yeah i get it dont look legit all of that but it is and i will make it that way when i get to making this thing good next season.
I am not a big fan of "backtesting" although some of it works if you are using stats that show series stuff agains spreads and home vs. away games other then that I dont believe in it to much. But I promise when I am ready to "MAKE IT SERIOUS" there will be something from the first day that I start counting. Thanks for showing me that it matters though it is much appreciated

Also instead of editing posts with your plays...you might want to hit the quote button right next to the edit button...that way no one will question your picks... GL 14-10 here is a good start... G.

It's cool if someone questions my picks it's why I have it as just for fun. as I said above I think the stronger teams are going to start banging bats and these numbers will not count as much anyways. I just wanted to be accountable for my pick so that I didnt think I was being unfair to myself and again as said above thank you for pointing out these things out.

[threeg5]

Ok this post will be updated as I get to the scores and I am able to update them. The ORIGINAL picks in there entirety are above.

ana over tor angels are the fav
cubs over the dodgers cubs are the fav
nyy over bos nyy are the fav
cin over pit cin is the dog
mil over was mil is the dog against system was good chance to win
hou over ari hou is the dog against system ari good chance to win
chw over bal chw is the fav
sea over cle sea is the dog
tex over tb tex is the dog
phi over nym phi is the fav
kc over min -110 both lines hmm (against system min good chance to win)
sf over col sf is the dog (these teams came within .001 of each other which so far has been a close game for the past 3 days on these types)
det over oak det is the fav
stl over sd stl is the fav (both of these teams are overachieving by numbers stand points so I went with stl because they are actually over achieving less the sd and sd needs to lose some to get back in line with[/quote]

Thats 7 smiling bobbing head smiley
and 7 thumbs down smiley

so that makes it 7-7 for the day or 50%
and all time on record as 21 - 17 or 55.3% winning 44.7%losing that aint so goodwe will see bout tomorrow

[G's pks]

Actually a great idea...why not keep track here... Kind of makes you take the paper and pen idea serious knowing others are viewing your picks... I like to pick all the games myself...but only bet a few...

[threeg5]

Actually a great idea...why not keep track here... Kind of makes you take the paper and pen idea serious knowing others are viewing your picks... I like to pick all the games myself...but only bet a few...

I like to teach my kids accountability so this is what I woudl tell them to do is post it where you cant deny it the take responsibility for it.
and I am the same I also using this to get responses so I can build onfidence in my capping. Too damn bad the "real regular" season is more or less at an end
i am about to do a few parlays on some of my picks that seem solid to me so hopefully.

[G's pks]

By the way anyone know the opening line early this morning on philly and on stl?

Line History:
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets


RUNLINES
08/21 19:05 -1½ -130 / +1½ +120
08/22 06:45 -1½ -133 / +1½ +123
08/22 07:20 -1½ -136 / +1½ +126
08/22 08:20 -1½ -140 / +1½ +130
08/22 09:10 -1½ -137 / +1½ +127
08/22 09:40 -1½ -131 / +1½ +121
08/22 10:10 -1½ -133 / +1½ +123
08/22 10:20 -1½ -131 / +1½ +121
08/22 11:05 -1½ -130 / +1½ +120
08/22 13:41 -1½ -132 / +1½ +122
08/22 16:36 -1½ -136 / +1½ +126
08/22 16:43 -1½ -131 / +1½ +121
08/22 16:45 -1½ -128 / +1½ +118
08/22 16:55 -1½ -129 / +1½ +119

MONEYLINES
08/21 17:11 -220 / +202
08/21 23:30 -228 / +210
08/21 23:45 -214 / +196
08/22 04:05 -227 / +209
08/22 06:00 -232 / +214
08/22 08:30 -235 / +217
08/22 09:20 -221 / +203
08/22 09:30 -225 / +207
08/22 10:55 -220 / +202
08/22 11:35 -222 / +204
08/22 11:47 -224 / +206
08/22 12:01 -220 / +202
08/22 12:21 -223 / +205
08/22 13:51 -225 / +207
08/22 16:43 -218 / +200

TOTALS - OVER/UNDER
08/21 19:05 8½ -127 / 8½ +117
08/22 09:20 8½ -134 / 8½ +124
08/22 09:40 9 -109 / 9 -101
08/22 12:46 9 -106 / 9 -104
08/22 13:06 9 -110 / 9 +100
08/22 13:46 9 -111 / 9 +101
08/22 13:51 9 -112 / 9 +102
08/22 16:21 9 -117 / 9 +107
08/22 16:26 9 -120 / 9 +110





Line History:
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres


RUNLINES
08/21 19:05 -1½ -130 / +1½ +120
08/22 08:05 -1½ -125 / +1½ +115
08/22 09:15 -1½ -118 / +1½ +108
08/22 09:25 -1½ -116 / +1½ +106
08/22 09:40 -1½ -113 / +1½ +103
08/22 09:45 -1½ -115 / +1½ +105
08/22 10:25 -1½ -113 / +1½ +103
08/22 11:10 -1½ -110 / +1½ +100
08/22 12:06 -1½ -113 / +1½ +103
08/22 12:31 -1½ -111 / +1½ +101
08/22 12:51 -1½ -113 / +1½ +103
08/22 16:06 -1½ -111 / +1½ +101

MONEYLINES
08/21 17:11 -220 / +202
08/21 19:10 -224 / +206
08/22 08:05 -219 / +201
08/22 09:15 -205 / +189
08/22 09:20 -193 / +182
08/22 09:25 -197 / +184
08/22 09:35 -201 / +185
08/22 10:20 -191 / +180
08/22 10:25 -193 / +182
08/22 13:01 -191 / +180
08/22 16:06 -187 / +179
08/22 16:36 -186 / +178

TOTALS - OVER/UNDER
08/21 19:05 6½ -125 / 6½ +115
08/22 06:35 6½ -118 / 6½ +108
08/22 09:20 6½ -125 / 6½ +115
08/22 11:30 6½ -123 / 6½ +113
08/22 13:16 6½ -121 / 6½ +111
08/22 13:46 6½ -123 / 6½ +113
08/22 16:55 6½ -122 / 6½ +112

[threeg5]

where are those from my book bohog has damn philly at like-260 and stl at i think -220 or -240 either way what is that?

[G's pks]

just click on the actual line by the book at sbrodds... Top of page here where it says live odds clean on the odds to the right of teams listed by book. G.

[threeg5]

Ok this post will be updated as I get to the scores and I am able to update them. The ORIGINAL picks in there entirety are above.

ana over tor angels are the fav
cubs over the dodgers cubs are the fav
nyy over bos nyy are the fav
cin over pit cin is the dog
mil over was mil is the dog against system was good chance to win
hou over ari hou is the dog against system ari good chance to win
chw over bal chw is the fav
sea over cle sea is the dog
tex over tb tex is the dog
phi over nym phi is the fav
kc over min -110 both lines hmm (against system min good chance to win)
sf over col sf is the dog (these teams came within .001 of each other which so far has been a close game for the past 3 days on these types)
det over oak det is the fav
stl over sd stl is the fav (both of these teams are overachieving by numbers stand points so I went with stl because they are actually over achieving less the sd and sd needs to lose some to get back in line with

Thats 7 smiling bobbing head smiley
and 7 thumbs down smiley

so that makes it 7-7 for the day or 50%
and all time on record as 21 - 17 or 55.3% winning 44.7%losing that aint so goodwe will see bout tomorrow[/quote]


And what's with all the BIG RUN games today holy cow is this really typical of this time of year?

[head_strong]

lots of games.....GL

[threeg5]

sea 0.82447665056361
cle 1.22201257861635

ana 0.81995841995842
tor 1.2686170212766

phi 1.01515151515152
nym 0.98245614035088

fla 0.90450928381963
atl 1.10026525198939

cin 0.91960784313726
pit 1.08864954432477

mil 0.88208333333333
was 1.20030007501875

tex 0.94946524064171
tb 1.04892205638474

ari 1.15412186379928
hou 0.85995316159251

bal 1.04
chw 0.97260273972603

min 1.03333333333333
kc 0.96825396825397

sf 0.96683250414594
col 1.03260869565217

stl 1.06694964306386
sd 0.90099715099715

det 0.92647058823529
oak 1.09259259259259

chc 0.97573770491803
lad 1.06126126126126

nyy 0.90434565434565
bos 1.14658385093168

figured I would leave the number that I use to base my picks on. obviously the lower the number is the more then cahnce is. what I am looking for is which one is actually closer to 1.
so for the nyy vs. bos the difference between 1 and their score is .095654 and the difference between 1 and bos is .1465838509.
now there are games that are close like the min/kc game the difference between the 2 are almost identical so i take the one that is under 1. this is not perfect and has been tweaked a littel daily to see how close I can get this.
anyways have fun

[threeg5]

I bombed that start with new things soon. Back to the drawing board lick my wounds come oput swinging never give up perserverance always wins even if its in the form of a valuble lesson.