Padres home on the run line over Livan Hernandez and New York Mets

Do not read this. I'm on a bad run, crooked mojo about me, I can feel it. So do something other that the title suggests and you should cash, but do not read this.

Gimme' the Padres tonight on the run line at home against the Mets. Yeah, I know it sounds crazy. But desperate times call for desperate measures and I'm going to give away some offense on San Diego, the lowest-scoring team in the majors, as I try to shake a bad run.


Register now to win prizes in the SBRun-Line Contest sponsored by BetPhoenix

I started checked the starting pitching matchups on today's card while I was tuned into a couple of games last night, and the first thing that struck me was there wasn't one pitching matchup that inspired me to bet on the -1½ number. There are a couple of nice marquee matchups going on Thursday and a short undercard with eight teams taking the day off, and none of the matchups really struck me as one-sided.

The top contest has to be John Smoltz and the Red Sox in New York with Joba Chamberlain throwing for the Yankees. Another nice pairing is Derek Lowe and the Braves in LA against Randy Wolf and the Dodgers. Cliff Lee and the Phils host Aaron Cook and the Rockies, and that's one that I first thought about playing on a run line since I think Lee is going to close out strong in Philadelphia and that's a potent offense.

What I settled on was the opposite of Lee, a pitcher that I think will close on the dirty end of the spectrum against one that seems to be ready to pitch well for a losing team these final eight weeks or so.

I should first warn you that I am on a bad run, even losing office beer bets to Vegas Dave with regularity for Christ's sake. Lots of wicked vibes about me, so I repeat, do not play this pick, do not even fade this pick that is how bad the voodoo is on this one. This curse once took a shit on the Nicky curse, that's how bad ass it is.

Still, Livan Hernandez (9-11, 4.77) is about the hit the wall this season and the Padres are exactly the kid of piss-ant lineup that can break out against the New York righthander. I love Hernandez, aka Quarter Pounder, always have liked this big ol' kid. He made just two quality starts out of 10 after July 19 last year and needed a lot of help from the Rockies offense for the team to go 4-6 in those games.

On the other hand, lefthander Clayton Richard (8-7, 4.61) has been pitching well of late with his teams 2-1 and himself owning a 1.24 ERA over his three most recent starts spanning nearly 22 innings. I say teams because Richard was part of the Jake Peavy deal the Pads made with the White Sox last week, with Richard coming the other way to San Diego. This will be his second start since the trade and the second in front of the home fans so he should be a bit more relaxed in this one. The Mets have been pushing more runs across lately, so this won't be an easy lineup for Richard despite the numerous injuries to the offense. New York exploded for nine runs in a nine-zip win at home against the Cards on Wednesday afternoon, thanks to Angel Pagan and David Wright. But they remain a below-average offense in the NL rankings and coming to Petco won't help that.

It's going to be another gorgeous evening in San Diego, around probably the upper-60s for first pitch with winds out of the WNW at 8-12 MPH (in from left center). Wish I was going to be there, couple of cold brews and fish tacos from the concession stand, scoping out the fine California women in the crowd and watching a nice fat +170 run line on the Padres cash.



Note: W-L records listed for individual pitchers are their team’s record in their starts. Statistical sources for this article were Retrosheet.org, Baseball-Reference.com and ESPN.com.