[EaglesPhan36]

Thought long and hard during the past few weeks on how I wanted to play baseball this season. It's probably in my estimation one of the hardest sports to stay stout in your money management. I've dubbed this thread Twin Killing because the goal is two picks each night MAX, beat the books and make that Twin Killing as much as possible a.k.a. going 2-0. Might be a side. Might be a total. Might be a team total. Might be a prop. But just two picks total per night to minimize losses and hopefully maximize profits. I don't claim to be an expert, just providing my insight for what its worth.

No full game picks for Seattle-Oakland, but wanted to post up tonight because I have one future I am putting on the books tonight.

Future #1: Seattle's Ichiro Suzuki Total RBI's [2012] Over 50.5 [-115]
Ichiro must play 130 games for this to have action. Given his sturdy career, I'd expect that to not be a concern despite his age [38]. So why would you like taking an aging Ichiro to get his most RBIs in the past three years? #1, a switch to the #3 spot in the batting order. Seattle needed more production and they chose to stick Ichiro there. Last year. Smoak and Olivo were the top run producers with 55 and 62 RBIs for an anemic offense. Is it going to be that much better in 2012? Not expecting a big bump, but Dustin Ackley will be in the lineup from Day 1. Last year in 90 games and occupying the three hole, he drove in 36 runs. With Figgins slotted as the leadoff man and Ackley 2nd, Ichiro should be seeing some base runners when he comes to the plate. He's already had one of his best springs with 8 RBI and has a career best two homers this Spring. That leads to #2, he's adjusted his swing to try to provide more power. He's not going to hit 20, but he's got the ability to hit 10-15 HRs I believe. If he stays healthy and Figgins and Ackley can do a half-way decent job of getting on-base, I think he's got a great chance to surpass this RBI mark.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ha! Glad I put that futures wager down when I did. My book raised it to 60.5.

[pinnerpsk]

Very solid bet. The book was sleeping

[EaglesPhan36]

March 28th: Oakland SP Brandon McCarthy Total Strikeouts Over 5 [+110]
Found something I like for the opener. McCarthy absolutely owned Seattle in 2011. In 31+ IP, he struck out 27 batters. He struck out at least five batters in each of his four starts against Seattle. Impressively, he struck out Ichiro four times in 13 ABs. McCarthy has not been striking out batters with the same frequency as last Spring, but he's continued to improve on his pitches as he is now a solid ground ball pitcher featuring a pretty nasty cutter. In 2011, he went at least six innings in 21 of 25 starts. In 13 of those 21, he struck out at least five. Give me six innings minimum and I believe this is a push at worst.

[blackeyeshamus]

good luck on the bases, eagles phan.
lovin' the twin killing concept, as I've been leaning
toward a kind of three play/hat trick/triple down daily
kind of system... three dogs daily. but I haven't decided.
good to you, sir. stack 'em and cash 'em.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thank you sir. Yeah, it's taken my a bit to get in control of baseball betting. I tried doing series betting mostly for the beginning of one year, but kept finding plays each day I wanted to make also. You can just really get out of control if you don't have a plan I think.

[EaglesPhan36]

McCarthy has been rock solid, but the strikeouts aren't there for him today [2]. Probably only one more inning for him, maybe two if he's real efficient but I'm guessing they go bullpen after 7.

[ebbearsfb1]

Good luck eagle... will be posting my plays ina thread also this year... first year I'm doing baseball seriously... seems like with action everyday .. one lose can turn into 5 or 6 real quick if your not careful

[ebbearsfb1]

Nice picking up an rbi early

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah, Ichiro 4 for 5 today with the RBI. Time to rest up for next week.

[EaglesPhan36]

Future #2: Dodgers Total Wins Over 80.5 [-115]
Year #2 for Don Mattingly. Dodgers won 82 last year in a tumultuous season. With the sale of the team, things should be more even keel. Dodgers should have a solid offense if health allows for it. The OF with Rivera, Kemp and Ethier should be productive. James Loney might be the key to the offense if he can finally come through on his potential with a breakout type season. The rotation is anchored by Kershaw and Billingsley. Losing Kuroda is big, but they picked up Harang who should eat innings. Ted Lilly is still there as a solid #3-#4 guy. Guerra is the closer. If he is anything like what we saw in 2011, the bullpen is in good hands w/Guerra leading a pretty solid unit. The player to watch for LA is SS Dee Gordon. This guy could be a stud in the making. I think his development along with Loney's bat will tell the tale on how the offense could shape up. Pitching-wise, Billingsley will need more consistency, but I think this team finishes above .500 or at least at the mark to get this done.

[EaglesPhan36]

Future #3: Angels P Jered Weaver Total Wins Over 15 [-115]
Durable pitcher. Contending team. What's not to like here? Weaver has made 33, 34 & 33 starts the past three seasons and has topped 15 wins in two of those three seasons. Being in a divison with Oakland and Seattle should help aid this total as well. I think if Weaver stays healthy, 15 wins should be a minimum total at-worst and hopefully he is closer to last year's 18 wins.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 4th: Miami 3B Hanley Ramirez Total Hits, Runs & RBIs Over 2.5 [+115]
Career .306 against St.Louis and 5/13 lifetime against Lohse. He's had some good and bad Opening Days. Solid spring. In the spotlight tonight, let's see how Mr.Orange and Mr.Orange [Ramirez-Reyes] do.

[EaglesPhan36]

Going to continue to spend some time trying to find props to play regularly as they are one of the undersung bets I think there are to make. Hopefully, can find some success after a slow start on the 1st two.

April 5th: Pirates P Erik Bedard Total Strikeouts Over 4.5 [-115]

[EaglesPhan36]

Meh. Another loser. Solid outing. 7 IP, 4 Ks and yanked in the 8th. Should have just taken a bunch of unders apparently. Oh well, back to the drawing board. Slow starts seem to be my specialty in most sports.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 0-3 [-3.15]

April 6th: Cardinals-Brewers Over 7.5 [+110]
Garcia v. Gallardo. The names have changed a bit w/ no Pujols or Fielder, but both these pitchers have had some troubles with this opponent. Garcia has a 6.60 ERA @ Miller Park in three starts. His road ERA for his career is almost two full runs higher than his home ERA. Only four of Garcia's 18 road starts finished with less than eight runs in 2011. Gallardo is 1-7 with a 5.66 ERA against St.Louis. Some of that due to Pujols, some back luck and some just the Cards finding ways to score on him.

[EaglesPhan36]

Finally on board with a winna.

[5mike5]

nice to see ur doing props MLB too 36

my 1st season doing MLB player props...still only +100 and worse...see how it works

GL this year buddy!!!

[EaglesPhan36]

April 6th: Colorado Team Total Over 4 [-115]
Good #s across the board for the Rockies' starters who have faced Wandy Rodriguez. Helton is 11/25. Ramon Hernandez is 8/21. Tulowitzki is 3/10. Cuddyer 2/5 with a HR. Expecting Colorado to get some off him and then work into the bullpen.

[EaglesPhan36]

nice to see ur doing props MLB too 36

my 1st season doing MLB player props...still only +100 and worse...see how it works

GL this year buddy!!!

Thanks mike. Baseball props are a work in progress for me. The strikeout ones are the ones I play more than any other. The head-2-head match-ups I keep looking at, but they just seem to be a crapshoot even if one guy has dominated the #s against the other team, etc. I like the team totals a lot for visiting teams since they are guaranteed the nine ABs per game.

Will also likely play some Series prices from time to time.

[5mike5]

Thanks mike. Baseball props are a work in progress for me. The strikeout ones are the ones I play more than any other. The head-2-head match-ups I keep looking at, but they just seem to be a crapshoot even if one guy has dominated the #s against the other team, etc. I like the team totals a lot for visiting teams since they are guaranteed the nine ABs per game.

Will also likely play some Series prices from time to time.

definatley will be work in progress here too...not even sure what props ill be taking actually since my 1st season doing props....im no good at single bets on games so cant be worse than when i use to bet that...lol

ill check in with ya and see what ur doing...thanks bud and GL

[EaglesPhan36]

Tulo for the sweep!

Record: 2-3 [-1.05]

[EaglesPhan36]

April 7th: Toronto Team Total Over 4 [-110]
Jimenez had a little trouble adapting to the AL when he was traded last year and his Spring was a bit rough as well. The Blue Jays scored three off him in the only meeting he started last year.

[EaglesPhan36]

I wonder if I get my money back if he throws a no-no. Poorly conceived pick by me. Rushed it and paying for that. Will put more work into the 2nd one damn it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Extra inning magic. Jays get two in the 12th to push it over four. Boom!

[EaglesPhan36]

April 7th: Minnesota Team Total Over 4 [-130]
Twins should have a chance to do more damage than they did in the opener tonight as they face Tommy Hunter. Hunter had a pair of strong Spring starts, but his track record suggests he remains hittable. Hunter gave up four runs or more in eight of eleven starts last year after joining Baltimore.

[EaglesPhan36]

Passed on my Astros today and hating it.

Record: 3-4 [-1.35]

[EaglesPhan36]

April 8th: Milwaukee -105
Taking Wolf over Lynn in this one. Wolf had two tough starts vs. STL in 2011 - but three solid ones as well. Milwaukee won four of his five starts against the Cards. Brewers are 7-2 in his last nine vs. STL. Wolf had one turd in the Spring, but was otherwise pretty good overall. Lynn was pretty solid in the Spring, so we'll see how he responds now in his first full season as a starter.

[EaglesPhan36]

Experimenting with the props. I have done this with draws in soccer before. Play two and try to get a split for a profit. So, going to try the Long Ball Project w/home runs. Basically taking two props of a player to hit a HR and seeing if we can secure one winner out of two for a neat profit. Thought this would be an interesting project to keep tabs on. Won't have plays every day since the book that gives me these props only offers select players to hit HRs, so you have to pick and choose your spots. Anywho, let's see how we do.

The Long Ball Project
Pujols +275
Soriano +400

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 3-5 [-2.40]
Long Ball Project: 0-2 [-2.00]

April 9th-11th: [SERIES] Cardinals +135
I think St.Louis is being seriously under valued in this series against the Reds. St.Louis has opened strong, showing solid pitching and more offense than I think most expected without Pujols. The Reds are off to a good start as well at 2-1, winning their opening series against Miami. Game 1 begins with Westbrook v. Bailey. Bailey has poor numbers vs. STL @ 2-5 with 5.64 ERA. Westbrook is 2-1 with a 4.39 ERA in eight lifetime appearances vs. CIN. He's got great #s at Great American Ballpark in two starts, a 2.31 ERA. Game 2 pits Lohse against Leake. Leake is 1-1 with a 6.97 ERA in three career appearances vs. STL, two of them starts. Lohse was masterful to open against Miami and this is Leaker's first start. The finale of the series is a good one with Garcia against Cueto. Garcia has a great record against Cincy @ 6-1 with a 3.13 ERA in seven starts. Cueto is 4-4 in 13 starts against the Cards with a 4.34 ERA. I think from a pitching standpoint, STL at worst matches even from a starting perspective in this series - but truly, I think they have an edge in a couple of the match-ups. Offensively, both teams have been solid although the Reds have relied more on the long ball to produce runs whereas the Cards have done a great job of producing with small ball and long ball. I think if their pitching holds this series, STL has an excellent opportunity to win the series and continue their solid opening play.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 9th: Angels-Twins Over 7.5 [-115]
LA bats have been looking for a spot to break out and this could be it against Minnesota's Nick Blackburn. A lot of the Angels lineup has had great success against Blackburn: Kendrick 7/13, Hunter 6/13, Abreu 8/16 and Callaspo 6/17. Will be cold, but wind looks to be gusty and blowing out. Wilson's ERA @ Target Field is in the 6s. Minnesota hasn't produced much offensively, so maybe heading home can help them get going.

[EaglesPhan36]

Man the Halos offense blows so far. Can't even light up Blackburn. The slow start continues apparently for moi.

[EaglesPhan36]

At these odds, taking another shot tonight.

Long Ball Project
Hosmer +500
Cespedes +475Cespedes has four hits, three are home runs. Mendoza had a nice Spring, but he still seems like a hittable starter. Hosmer is the longer shot of the two for good reason as he faces the lefty Milone. Hosmer has just one career long ball against a lefty. Milone though throws lots of strikes and doesn't walk many, so you know you're getting something to hit. Again this project's goal is simply to get one of the two choices to get through with a home run for a solid profit. Trying it here and there to see if it pans out or isn't worth a damn.

[EaglesPhan36]

Series off to a good start with STL winning. Now let's get a HR!

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 3-6 [-3.55]
Long Ball Project: 0-4 [-3.00]

No success on the Long Ball Project so far. Going to keep those as half unit plays in case it just buries me. Not going to over think today. I've been digging too deep past my first glance the last couple of days and costing myself.

April 10th: Dodgers Team Total Over 4 [-125]
Corriea goes for Pittsburgh and his final two Spring starts could be a glimpse into the near future. He got railed by Boston for four runs and then trounced by a Twins offense that has looked anemic in the regular season for ten runs. Corriea has a respectable ERA at Dodger Stadium at 4.40. Dodgers offense has been solid so far with at least four runs in every game. Three of Correia's last four starts over the last two seasons vs. LAD have seen him give up four runs.