[tin8shusd]

hey fellas,

i'm trying to construct a profitable underdog system for baseball games. i have only a few constraints that i'm currently implementing but i'd like to hear other thoughts or suggestions as to how i could improve it or make it more stringent.

currently, here are the constraints i'm using:

you select an underdog in a matchup if all of the following are true,

1. the underdog has not lost 3+ consecutive games
2. the favorite has not won 3+ consecutive games
3. the starting pitcher for the favorite is not in the top 20 for ERA in the majors
4. the odds you're getting on the underdog are between +130 and +150

underdogs supposedly win in baseball 44% of the time, and with these constraints i'm trying to capture a system that will effectively pick underdogs with positive expected value. any thoughts, suggestions, or questions would be appreciated. thanks!

[G's pks]

how about something like this based on dogs with only a +.500 record... based on a short chase of a series...

[tin8shusd]

i'm thinking of widening the gap from +120 to +150, but i think plus .500 teams will rarely get those kind of odds

[G's pks]

i'm thinking of widening the gap from +120 to +150, but i think plus .500 teams will rarely get those kind of odds

sure they will on the road, facing other teams over .500

[G's pks]

the odds are based way more on the pitcher than the team record! Just a quick example for you the Reds are over .500 at 18-14...the diamondbacks are under .500, but the reds are +176 today... (not picking this game).. So quite the opposite of what you are thinking actually... several over .500 teams will be +150 or more!

[tin8shusd]

you don't understand...the reds wouldn't qualify because they're facing a top-20 in ERA pitcher. my point was that if a +.500 team has those kinds of odds, it's very likely the other constraints aren't met. i know your an idiot on other people's posts too, so if you could refrain from degrading this insightful question to those out there who know what they're talking about that would be great...thanks.

[Slanina]

Did you do any backtesting to it? I could only imagine the bitch that would be to do.

[tin8shusd]

i guess i could go back to the goldsheet and find the previous odds, but i'm not sure if there is a stats site that would find me, for instance "who were the top 20 in ERA at this point of this season?" that's the only wrench i see

[G's pks]

you don't understand...the reds wouldn't qualify because they're facing a top-20 in ERA pitcher. my point was that if a +.500 team has those kinds of odds, it's very likely the other constraints aren't met. i know your an idiot on other people's posts too, so if you could refrain from degrading this insightful question to those out there who know what they're talking about that would be great...thanks.

I like the idea...but I am going to try to work on a limited 3-5 game chase system... I would like to back test team vs team and look for series without sweeps vs each other in the past two years. Then pick one or the other in the chase... I am thinking teams that are more evenly matched... I would like to bet a little more but usually i only get a good feel for a few baseball games a week.

GL...if you come up with something...give it a shot...it is the backtesting that most (including me) are to lazy to do. Example tonight...tons of games but I do not have a feeling for any of them!... Oh well...