Hotcross MLB 2018 Thread

[hotcross]

Thursday May 31

OVER 8 -103 PITT@STL // 2.06 units to win 2

Trevor Williams at Jack Flaherty

[hotcross]

sorry mistake on the odds

-108 for the Over

2.16 units to win 2
is the correct amount

[Bdolan33]

Love the detailed thoughts you give

[hotcross]

thanks I'd write a lot more if I could but some days just do not have the time I wish I did have.

also it's not like I'm paid here

I do it because I loooove baseball

[darrell74]

thanks I'd write a lot more if I could but some days just do not have the time I wish I did have.

also it's not like I'm paid here

I do it because I loooove baseball

Don't
It'll burn you out if you write huge articles
Write " bullets" of information
You're doing fine
You are one of the very few legitimate guys on here

[hotcross]

won that Over easily last night. Here's another....

Friday June 1

OVER 9.5 -107 OAK@KC // 2.14 units to win 2

I think a few homeruns will be hit in this game. Might add on a couple Player Props but haven't done well on those, so might not be worth it

[hotcross]

been rolling good this week with another win last night on the Over, score 16-0 Oakland beat KC

Saturday June 2

CLEVELAND -0.5 -120 first five innings // 1.20 units to win 1

no brainer play for me today is Cleveland first five innings. Trevor Bauer starting against Lance Lynn in Minnesota.
Bauer is usually best early in games, while Lynn isn't good at the start and has to find his rhythm in games.

Both teams lineups been heating up lately, so that's the wildcard in this game. So just a one unit pick.

[hotcross]

Saturday June 2 - adding ::

UNDER 7 -110 MIAMI@ARIZ // 1.10 units to win 1

Caleb Smith at Zack Greinke

[hotcross]

0-2 yesterday but both 1 unit picks, I guess felt questionable on both of them.

Sunday June 3

OVER 8.5 -105 CLE@MINN // 1.05 units to win 1

OVER 9.5 +144 CLE@MINN // 1 unit to win 1.44
*sell 1 run

I'm surprised the game total o/u today in Minnesota only 8.5

cool temperature but wind blowing out and pitchers are good, but both tend to walk a fair amount of hitters

[hotcross]

adding ::

PITTSBURGH +110 ML // 5 units to win 5.50

[2daBank]

0-2 yesterday but both 1 unit picks, I guess felt questionable on both of them.

Sunday June 3

OVER 8.5 -105 CLE@MINN // 1.05 units to win 1

OVER 9.5 +144 CLE@MINN // 1 unit to win 1.44
*sell 1 run

I'm surprised the game total o/u today in Minnesota only 8.5

cool temperature but wind blowing out and pitchers are good, but both tend to walk a fair amount of hitters

Tribe really fukked me on the over yesterday. Lynn's fat ass was walking guys like crazy (even tho ump had ridiculously big kzone) and tribe let him off the hook inning after inning. Hope they do some more scoring for ya today..

[hotcross]

May 28 thru June 3 results:

-------Tue. May 29-----------
+2.00 SAN DIEGO -164 ML ---> score 9-5 home win vs MIAMI
--------Wed. May 30----------
-2.14 OVER 9 -107 WSH@BALT ---> score 2-0 BALT home loss vs WSH
+3.66 PITTSBURGH +122 ML ---> score 2-1 home win vs CHC
+3.54 LA DODGERS -1.5 +118 runline ---> score 8-2 home win vs PHI
+2.00 UNDER 8 -115 TB@OAK ---> score 6-0 TB road win at OAK
-------Thurs. May 31-----------
+2.00 OVER 8 -108 PITT@STL ---> score 10-8 STL home win vs PITT
-------Fri. June 1-----------
+2.00 OVER 9.5 -107 OAK@KC ---> score 16-0 OAK road win at KC
-------Sat. June 2-----------
-1.20 CLEVELAND -0.5 -120 first five inn. ---> score 3-1 MINN lead end 5th (final 7-1 CLE road loss)
-1.10 UNDER 7 -110 MIAMI@ARIZ ---> 6-2 MIAMI road loss at ARIZ
-------Sun. June 3-----------
+1.00 OVER 8.5 -105 CLE@MINN ---> 7-5 MINN home win vs CLE
+1.44 OVER 9.5 +144 CLE@MINN *sell 1 run
-5.00 PITTSBURGH +110 ML ---> score 5-0 road loss at STL
------------------
May 28 thru June 3 = +8.20 units (W/L = 8-4 = .667 pct)

OVERALL THREAD = +2.64 units (W/L = 67-71-3 = .485 pct)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Back into positive territory on the season. Kinda blew it on the last 5 unit loss of the week, but when I'm running good I try to press higher....it was a bad call, but if it had worked then it woulda felt great, so I'll brush it off and move ahead.

[hotcross]

Tuesday June 5

OVER 5.5 -140 OAK@TEX first five innings // 4.20 units to win 3

MIAMI +178 ML // 1 unit to win 1.78

OVER 7.5 -115 MIAMI@STL // 1.15 units to win 1

[hotcross]

Oakland at Texas is just no-brainer pitching matchup, Sean Manaea at Matt Moore

The Miami pick is because the Marlins have lost 6-games in a row, and facing Carlos Martinez for the Cardinals making his first start since May 8. It's warm (although not humid in St.Louis tonight). Jose Urena starting for Miami is kinda a wildcard, he has decent numbers against right-handed batters, but inconsistent and sports a 4.41 ERA

[hotcross]

Lately these picks I see as no-brainers aren't working. OAK@TEX score 3-1 after 5 innings. The Miami picks are looking ok so far with a 5-2 Marlins lead now headed to the bottom of the fifth.

Some of the game results (and nearly finished games) are indeed unexpected, as I mentioned in another thread this schedule looked "iffy" to me.

Shoulda known not to risk more units on any play tonight.

[hotcross]

now to add salt on the wounds, Texas has rallied in late consecutive innings to lead 7-4 in bottom 8th now

full game total was Over 10.5

arrrrrgggh

[hotcross]

went 2-1 last night but booked a -1.42 unit loss due to the bigger play losing

Wed. June 6

UNDER 8 -118 KC@LAA // 1.18 units to win 1


I don't like laying the -118 range on totals, but I am liking this game to go Under. Ian Kennedy pitched against the Angels on April 12 and took the loss, although allowed only 1 run. Since then, Kennedy has looked like a complete gas can in every outing now spanning almost 2-months. However, Pujols will be out of the lineup, Trout does not have good historical numbers against Kennedy, and the Angels are starting Ohtani who will more than likely make the Royals look foolish.

When you look back at that April 12 start for Kennedy, the Angels were actually running pretty hot on offense in previous games, and they ended up scoring 7 runs but those 6 runs came off Royals relief pitchers. In other words, Kennedy held them down when they were hot. Currently, they are not hot at all as a team. Angels games are 3-7 O/U in their last 10 games. Royals are 4-5-1 O/U in their last 10.


still working on a couple other games....

[hotcross]

PLAYER PROP - YES HOMERUN

CHARLIE BLACKMON +304 (Colorado) // 1 unit to win 3.04

He loves hitting them off RHP and has not done so since May 18.

In the Great American Smallpark tonight....book it!

[hotcross]

OVER 9.5 +100 CHW@MINN // 5 units to win 5

Let's not miss out on the obvious. These teams played a doubleheader yesterday, split the wins, but both games went under! That means bullpens were taxed. Starting pitchers Hector Santiago at Jake Odorizzi should get this off to a fast start.

[hotcross]

June 5 & 6 results:

--------Tue. June 5----------
-4.20 OVER 5.5 -140 OAK@TEX first five inn. ---> score 3-1 OAK lead end 5th (final 7-4 road loss at TEX)
+1.78 MIAMI +178 ML ---> score 7-4 road win at STL
+1.00 OVER 7.5 -115 MIAMI@STL

------Wed. June 6-----------
+1.00 UNDER 8 -118 KC@LAA ---> score 4-3 LAA home win vs KC
-1.00 CHARLIE BLACKMON (COL) +304 HOMERUN ---> went 0-for-5 with 2 strikeouts
-5.00 OVER 9.5 +100 CHW@MINN ---> 5-2 MINN home loss vs CHW
------------------
June 5 & 6 = -6.42 units (W/L = 3-3 = .500 pct)

OVERALL THREAD = -3.78 units (W/L = 70-74-3 = .486 pct)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wanted to update record and get this turned around. Last two nights bigger picks lost.


Twins left 9 men on base in Wednesday's game. Second inning - had runners on 2nd and 3rd base with nobody out already 1 run scored, and got nothing else there. Someone else said the teams would be tired after yesterday's doubleheader and therefore would not put full-effort in this game, which certainly held true for the Twins, they had a terrible offensive game against Hector Santiago....Miguel Sano went 0-for-4 with 2 strikeouts (he was also 0-for-4 in the second game of the doubleheader on Tuesday).

[darrell74]

Due for a winning streak
I like Texas and Cole Hamels tomorrow-live dog
+170 ml, or +105 run line
list Hamels, he has very good numbers against the Astros.

gl with your plays HotCross

[hotcross]

Friday June 8

TAMPA BAY -115 ML // 3.45 units to win 3


I've figured some changes in the way things are gonna be done here.
Looking to make a big score during the rest of the year.

[hotcross]

Friday June 8 - adding ::

OVER 9 +105 LAA@MINN // 2.40 units to win 2.52

[hotcross]

both picks last night crashed and burned to the tune of -5.85 units. Repeating both today....

Saturday June 9

OVER 9 +105 LAA@MINN // 2.40 units to win 2.52

TAMPA BAY -1 +102 *buying 0.5 run from the runline // 3 units to win 3.06

[hotcross]

split yesterday for +0.66 units, going back to the well on this Over in Minnesota....

Sunday June 10

OVER 10 +123 LAA@MINN *sell 1 run // 3 units to win 3.69

I figure selling the run to get better +plus odds makes sense here. The offered Total o/u 9 @ -118 juiced to the Over. Well I don't want a push here anyway. Hoping for a breakout for both offenses, maybe they can score 11 combined. So find a book that offers ability to sell points, or alternate lines.

Looking at a couple other games....

[hotcross]

Sunday June 10 - adding ::

COLORADO -0.5 -112 first five innings // 2.24 units to win 2

COLORADO -1 -117 *buy 0.5 runs from the runline // 2.34 units to win 2

Cannot ignore the lineup Arizona is putting forth today, looks like Goldschmidt and nobody else.
Rockies don't hit Zach Godley very well, but Kyle Freeland has also been very good for Colorado.

[hotcross]

Will tally up last week, but getting in this play for tonight....

Tuesday June 12

OAKLAND +133 ML // 3 units to win 3.99

My play tonight will be on Oakland as a +133 dog. Daniel Mengden at home against the Astros. He has been more than decent on the year with a 1.02 WHIP stat. He did get hammered in his June 6 start on the road at Texas, but has good BvP numbers against most of the Astros batters, with the exceptions being Altuve and Correa on decent sample size, along with Bregman on less of a prior history. Meantime Lance McCullers has also had a good year, but Righties are batting .273 against him on the year.....and Oakland has a predominantly right-handed lineup. Oakland is 6-4 W/L in their past 10-games, after recent success in Kansas City. Somewhat of a hunch that I'm going with them to continue the momentum at least for one game with one of their better starters going tonight.

[hotcross]

Still running awful, Mengden had one bad inning top of 2nd last night, giving up 4 runs including 2 homeruns, and Oakland lost 6-3....

Wednesday June 13

OVER 4.5 -125 CHC@MILW first five innings // 5 units to win 4

Roof will be open in Milwaukee on a nice sunny day with breeze blowing out. Montgomery at Chacin is the pitching matchup, both these guys like to walk a fair amount of batters. This series has seen Unders so far, looking for a trend reversal. Kris Bryant not in the starting lineup is one downside.

[hotcross]

Friday June 15

OVER 8.5 -105 CHC@STL // 5.25 units to win 5

hot and humid in St.Louis
both teams "due" to go Over:
Cubs 2-8 O/U in past 10
Cards last 4-in-a-row went Under


I hope there have been people fading my losing streak, but this one will snap it

[hotcross]

Saturday June 16

HOUSTON -0.5 -170 first five innings // 5 units to win 2.94

It's a big number to lay. But Danny Duffy against "good" right handed batters is trouble....and it's very hot, humid, and wind blowing out to left field in Kansas City today.

[2daBank]

Saturday June 16

HOUSTON -0.5 -170 first five innings // 5 units to win 2.94

It's a big number to lay. But Danny Duffy against "good" right handed batters is trouble....and it's very hot, humid, and wind blowing out to left field in Kansas City today.

This was actually one those incredibly rare situations where I actually thought a big -200ish fav was not only worth the price but underpriced. Good hit.

[hotcross]

thanks bro

"Just Win Baby"

[hotcross]

Sunday June 17

SAN DIEGO -110 first five innings ML // 2.20 units to win 2

This is what I'm playing so far. Think the Padres will get to Teheran a little.

[hotcross]

CINCINNATI +142 first five innings ML // 2 units to win 2.84

Don't think Reds pitcher is so terrible on the road. And Pirates lineup looks weak.

[hotcross]

June 8 thru 17th results:

-------Fri. June 8-----------
-3.45 TAMPA BAY -115 ML ---> score 4-3 home loss vs SEA
-2.40 OVER 9 +105 LAA@MINN ---> score 4-2 MINN home loss vs LAA
-------Sat. June 9-----------
-2.40 OVER 9 +105 LAA@MINN ---> score 2-1 MINN home loss vs LAA
+3.06 TAMPA BAY -1 +102 *buy 0.5 runs from runline ---> score 7-3 home win vs SEA
-------Sun. June 10-----------
+3.69 OVER 10 +123 LAA@MINN * sell 1 run ---> score 7-5 MINN home win vs LAA
-2.24 COLORADO -0.5 -112 first five inn. ---> score 1-0 ARIZ lead end 5th
-2.34 COLORADO -1 -117 *buy 0.5 runs from runline ---> score 8-3 home loss vs ARIZ
--------Tue. June 12----------
-3.00 OAKLAND +133 ML ---> score 6-3 home loss vs HOU
-------Wed. June 13-----------
-5.00 OVER 4.5 -125 CHC@MILW first five inn. ---> score 1-0 MILW end 5th (final was same score)
-------Fri. June 15-----------
+5.00 OVER 8.5 -105 CHC@STL ---> score 13-5 CHC road win at STL
-------Sat. June 16-----------
+2.94 HOUSTON -0.5 -170 first five inn. ---> score 4-2 HOU lead end 5th (final 10-2 HOU road win at KC)
-------Sun. June 17-----------
-2.20 SAN DIEGO -110 first five inn. ML ---> score 2-0 ATL lead end 5th (final 4-1 road loss at ATL)
+2.84 CINCINNATI +142 first five inn. ML ---> score 6-2 CIN lead end 5th (final 8-6 road win at PITT)
------------------
June 8 thru 17th = -5.50 units (W/L = 5-8 = .384 pct)

OVERALL THREAD = -9.28 units (W/L = 75-82-3 = .477 pct)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3 out of the last 4 picks, getting back on track