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undertime
i smell some nl unders coming.there are some really awful lineups out there and some teams have adjusted the bullpens and without the meltdowns we have been seeing the unders should start cashing. I will try this until i am up or down 5 units. locking these in now all 1 unit.
marlins/phils u8.5 (-106)
braves/nats u6.5 (-102)
pirates/ brewers u7.5 (-105)
cubs/giants u7.5 (+100)
dbacks/padres u6.5 (+111)
3-1 so far with dbacks/pods pending. nl unders overall 5-1
locking in dbacks/rockies u 9.5 (+106) on mon.
4-1 +3.06u
nl unders overall 6-1 with mets pending. pens were solid today and i expect it to continue. locked in dbacks/rockies u9.5 (+106) for mon.
gonna lock these in now
pirates/reds u7.5 (+107)
cubs+140
giants-107
love the cubs here may go more than unit. lincecum has been suffering from one bad inning. but against that pods lineup how bad can it be?
adding rockies/dbacks u9.5 (+100)
i expect this line to move down as it looks like the under is cashing tonight
key injuries, esp. dodgers and brewers. dodgers are getting healthier but missing matt kemp. brewers are missing braun and lucroy. also, NL parks tend to go lower. mets/pirates/giants/padres at home are some to name.
indeed. but the books know this too. i am bcking unders now becuse of bullpen adjustments that have been made. this is under the radar and i hope to squeeze out a few more unders before the books adjust
cash another one with rockies/dbacks
5-1 +4.12
I hope you will still be capping like a machine when I reload.
me too. hoping to stay one step ahead of the books by noticing those small details under the radar.Originally Posted by jmp
could use some help with interleague play coming up since I dont follow the al too closely.
I love betting unders about this time of the year...
me too. conventional wisdom says the bats pick up when it starts to get hot. this is true but in my opinion it is more than offset by what happens with the pitchers. In april and May managers will leave pitchers out to dry sometimes to see what they have got. Now is the time when it gets more serious. Any pitcher not ready -back to the minors. also the managers now know what their bullpen story is and begin to play it much smarter. Just need to be careful not to play the unders for too long because the bats do catch up at some point.
nice stuff underal at least so far /really like lincecum tonite /he is 5-2 w/1.77 era vs.san diego/also cliff lee has to get his 1st .2012 w/eventually/finally tough call here dempster is 15-6 vs.brewers BUT gallardo is 5-1 vs. cubs /dunno gl all
Gotta give gallardo the edge over dempster but I am backing the cubs based on the lineups. brewers were bad enough to begin with and with lucroy out and braun and ramirez hurting this is a minor league lineup going against a quality starter. as for the pens- the brewers do not have a quality lefty who can exploit the cubs weakness against lefties. notice how bochy used affdelt to close yesterday
I like lee (or any quality lefty) against the dodgers but see no value at -180
wow. locked in pirates/reds u7.5 early at +107. it is now at -110. somebody must think they know something. hope they are right
1-3 -1.67u last night .
2 bad beats on the late games but the game upsetting me is believe it or not the cubs. I overestimated the chances of lincecum and guthrie bouncing back a bit and was still in position to win both in the late innings. These things happen. But I gave the cubs a 52% chance of winning last night and at odds of +140 there was great value there. plugging into the kelly formula (anyone interested can google this) we get 0.52-0.48/1.4=0.177 calling for a bet of 17.7% of the bankrloll. even after dividing by 5 like most people do this should have been a 3U play at least.Knowing myself If I was running cold I would have played it for 3u but in my opinion bet size should be determined by value only so the 1 unit bet was a mm mistake. gotta move on
6-4+ 2.45
picks for wed.
giants/padres u6 +118
phils -110
mets +141
cubs+192
rockies/dbacks u9.5 -106
i give the cubs a 40% chance winning despite greinke.At +192 and using the kelly formula and dividing by 5 gives this a value of 1.75. this value would be hard to find without the use of the formula.
7-8 -0.65 overall
another bad night. From now on I am determining bet size with the kelly formula to take the emotional aspect out of it. of course no money management scheme will help unless the capping improves.
picks for thurs
astros +145 1.5x
cubs/brewers u7.5 (-101) 1.5x
8-9 -0.65
plays for fri.
padres +144 1.3x
tigers/reds u9 +105 1.2x
cubs +119 1.2x
indians +136 1.5x
A's/dbacks u9 -108
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