[No coincidences]

Talk about an inflated line. Again, I love Verlander as much as anyone, but from a sheer gambling standpoint, I don't know how you can lay -160 on the Tigers tonight given the rest of the team's current form. All things considered, I see about 20 cents of value here. Verlander will have to carry them to victory here, which I suppose is possible, but he'll have little margin for error as per usual. I just wish Bard wasn't such a walking machine lately. Still, I think this is Boston or nothing here.

[brahmabull117]

not a bad play, but pedroia being out would scare me a bit and Bard is really awful as a starter (although tigers offense has massively underachieved this year)

[Madison]

Bard avg 4 BB last 4. I see Det scoring a minimum of 4-5 runs here. Can the sox get to Verlander for more than that? What are Gonzo and Ortiz lifetime against JV?

[cadillac pete]

I have a hard time backing this Red Sox team b/c of their suspect pen. When you have Vicente Padilla and Alfredo Aceves closing games it doesn't any dicer then that. Plus, I just don't think they're even that good this season.

[Madison]

Bard avg 4 BB last 4. I see Det scoring a minimum of 4-5 runs here. Can the sox get to Verlander for more than that? What are Gonzo and Ortiz lifetime against JV?

DO .268, AG .111 thanks to S Nash.

[brahmabull117]

I have a hard time backing this Red Sox team b/c of their suspect pen. When you have Vicente Padilla and Alfredo Aceves closing games it doesn't any dicer then that. Plus, I just don't think they're even that good this season.

both these teams are very overvalued by Vegas this year really



Man more and more I look at Bard's numbers, the more I want to play the Tigers. He's given up more walks than strikeouts and he's actually very lucky to only have a 4.70 era (a mediocre number in itself). Bard's whip and K to BB ratio would suggest an era closer to 7


I think Tigers score 4 or 5 runs in this game. Can Sox get 4 or 5 runs off Verlander?

[No coincidences]

I have a hard time backing this Red Sox team b/c of their suspect pen. When you have Vicente Padilla and Alfredo Aceves closing games it doesn't any dicer then that. Plus, I just don't think they're even that good this season.

True.

[brahmabull117]

True.

You're not worried about Bard's awful numbers? He's due for some regression I would say, his ERA should be closer to 6 considering his auxiliary stats

[dudekid]

brahma, where do you get that his ERA should be 6 or 7? is that just fuzzy math you are throwing out there? his FIP is right in line with his ERA...im not saying bard is great but he is not "due for regression"

as for the sox bullpen, has anyone actually watched them lately? theyve been above average this month...sure they started out shaky but now with defined roles, they are coming along...aceves has the stuff to be a closer in the MLB...aside from the blown save vs. tampa he has been good

verlander better throw 8+ innings because if the sox get to that bullpen then forget about it. combine that with the funky line movement, the public (and brahmabull) all over the tigers...im laying a unit on the sox. BOL

[brahmabull117]

brahma, where do you get that his ERA should be 6 or 7? is that just fuzzy math you are throwing out there? his FIP is right in line with his ERA...im not saying bard is great but he is not "due for regression"

a 1.56 whip and more bbs than Ks is really in line with a 4.70 era? That's surprising to me. I would figure about a 1.40 whip and maybe 1.3 k to bb ratio would be a 4.70 era. Maybe you're right


I'm a little baffled by your point about the tigers bullpen. Verlander almost always goes 7 or 8 and Benoit/Dotel are fantastic in the setup role (Very low ERA). Valverde has converted about 90% of his saves over the last 2 seasons


Also you have very little credibility when you tell me the public being on one side is a legitimate betting reason. When are people like you gonna learn that the public always hits around 50% ATS? Public being on one side or the other means absolutely nothing

[dudekid]

a 1.56 whip and more bbs than Ks is really in line with a 4.70 era? That's surprising to me. I would figure about a 1.40 whip and maybe 1.3 k to bb ratio would be a 4.70 era. Maybe you're right


I'm a little baffled by your point about the tigers bullpen. Verlander almost always goes 7 or 8 and Benoit/Dotel are fantastic in the setup role (Very low ERA). Valverde has converted about 90% of his saves over the last 2 seasons


Also you have very little credibility when you tell me the public being on one side is a legitimate betting reason. When are people like you gonna learn that the public always hits around 50% ATS? Public being on one side or the other means absolutely nothing

its not the end all be all, but if 80% of the public is on the tigers and the line is not moving or if its dropping, and that doesnt tell you anything, then i cant help you...

easy to say valverde closed 90% of his games over this and last year, because he closed 100% of his games last year..which anyone who knows baseball knows was a fluke...you wanna talk about "due for regression"? that guy is your posterboy...any closer with almost as many walks as strikeouts, a 4.66ERA and above all, a 1.66 WHIP, is not a shutdown option, especially against a lineup as potent as the red sox...i hope verlander goes 8 and valverde blows the save that would be the ultimate...the guy is an absolute gas-can, i take aceves over him every day and twice on sundays

[brahmabull117]

its not the end all be all, but if 80% of the public is on the tigers and the line is not moving or if its dropping, and that doesnt tell you anything, then i cant help you...

Line movement based plays mean nothing. Look at No Coin's mediocre record this year and all he does is line movement based plays


There's a million reasons why Vegas does what it does. I don't pay any attention to it because Vegas has the luxury of hitting 50% and making billions


None of us here have that luxury

easy to say valverde closed 90% of his games over this and last year, because he closed 100% of his games last year..which anyone who knows baseball knows was a fluke...you wanna talk about "due for regression"? that guy is your posterboy...any closer with almost as many walks as strikeouts, a 4.66ERA and above all, a 1.66 WHIP, is not a shutdown option, especially against a lineup as potent as the red sox...i hope verlander goes 8 and valverde blows the save that would be the ultimate...the guy is an absolute gas-can, i take aceves over him every day and twice on sundays

This year has been a fluke for Valverde though. He has a career 1.19 whip and more Ks than innings pitched


He won't have a 4 era or a 1.66 whip all season

[thebestthereis]

One thing is certain, you don't lay -160 on the road ever No matter what.

[BettingWizard]

red sox +150 @ home is an auto play

[lunchbawks]

bard sucks ass, verlander will outpitch him every time. detroit is the play

[brahmabull117]

red sox +150 @ home is an auto play

with a terrible pitcher facing the best pitcher in the majors?



Sox have too many injuries now too. No pedroia, no ellsbury. I'm on Detroit again for tonight

[BettingWizard]

game will be decided by the bullpens. +150 is good

[brahmabull117]

game will be decided by the bullpens. +150 is good

Verlander for 7/8 innings followed by Dotel/Benoit/Valverede >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> a very mediocre pitcher in bard and Sox bullpen

[BettingWizard]

better price for tiger backers now.....

[No coincidences]

Verlander for 7/8 innings followed by Dotel/Benoit/Valverede >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> a very mediocre pitcher in bard and Sox bullpen

All shaky.

[t-wizzle]

Looks like it could be a good play but Bard is shaky in the starter's role.

[BettingWizard]

small sample size, but Bard hasn't had 3 bad starts in a row yet. I think it'll be a 3-2 type game when both starters leave

[BigDofBA]

Line movement based plays mean nothing. Look at No Coin's mediocre record this year and all he does is line movement based plays


There's a million reasons why Vegas does what it does. I don't pay any attention to it because Vegas has the luxury of hitting 50% and making billions


None of us here have that luxury





This year has been a fluke for Valverde though. He has a career 1.19 whip and more Ks than innings pitched


He won't have a 4 era or a 1.66 whip all season

I just want to know how your play of the year, the Dodgers, lost last night? You said it was the type of play you used to go all-in on all of the time.....

[brahmabull117]

All shaky.

Dotel/Benoit/Valverde have a combined 26 holds/saves and just 4 blown saves (nearly 90%). You can do a lot worse than that

[lunchbawks]

say what you want about nocoin, he delivered today!

[detroitlionsfan]

Talk about an inflated line. Again, I love Verlander as much as anyone, but from a sheer gambling standpoint, I don't know how you can lay -160 on the Tigers tonight given the rest of the team's current form. All things considered, I see about 20 cents of value here. Verlander will have to carry them to victory here, which I suppose is possible, but he'll have little margin for error as per usual. I just wish Bard wasn't such a walking machine lately. Still, I think this is Boston or nothing here.

great call

i was torn on this game

[ebelisle22]

game will be called soon- going to pour in a bit

[BettingWizard]

verlander overrated

[No coincidences]

Why did I only put .5 units on this?

[starfire]

I put 1 unit

[No coincidences]

verlander overrated

Wouldn't say that at all.

Tigers just really struggle at Fenway -- especially when they're playing as bad as they have been lately.

[Gamble32jn]

I got sox for +145 as well. Fukking Tampa Bay fukks me everytime i bet them. Still cant fukking win on that sucky ass team!!!!! Fukk i hate them

[Joe D. 416]

**** the Tigers. Love Leyland, love Cabrera, but I cannot catch a break.

[pacocn]

N.C. great call
i went the other way

[Joe D. 416]

Make another genius call tomorrow and I'll follow.