[fitguy67]

I am minutes old in my exposure to the mysterious world of SABRmetric advanced stats. I do NOT want to get deeply into it...but i do want a SIMPLE upgade of the usual statistics, that i do know have many correctable inadequacies...

Pitching: ERA
Batting (aka. offense): Batting Average (even if supplemented with OBA, SLG)
Fielding (ie. non-pitching aspects of defense): Fielding Average

I want a few stats I can look at for an upcoming game that do a better job. I intend to apply the Pitching stat to the starters and for the bullpens involved (sometimes this'll suggest FF vs FG)...and apply the stats for each of the Batting and Fielding components to each team. Possibly down the road, start considering "home" and "away" versions of each of the three stats, etc...

I know that eventually a "toolkit" of stats will develop for each game component...but what I want to know...if u could only put one tool into each of the three trays which would it be (a "starter kit" if you will...cuz i know more may be added later).
_____________

I just spent some time at Fangraphs...here's what my quest for a single best summary stat for each of the major aspects of the game has come up with.

Pitching: SIERA
Batting (aka. offense): wRC+
Fielding (ie. non-pitching aspects of defense): either UZR or DRS

__________________

if ur an experienced SABRmetrician, i'd LOVE to hear from you, but remember my purpose is not to become a fellow devotee...i simply want to know which single statistic per aspect (Pitching/Batting/Fielding) would you keep if you "gun to the head" had to forego all others.

[Redscot]

Pitching - SIERA
Offense - wRC+
Defense - not really a big believer in these yet...they are making strides but this is the next frontier for the "advanced stats" guys.

End of the day they are single stats that take many aspects into account. But when I break down a pitcher for instance there are so many others things to take into consideration:groundball %, swinging strike %, first pitch strike %, (matching these against patience or impatient lineups etc.) on Fangraphs you can see how their approach may be changing, giving back some velocity perhaps and going more with a cut fastball. It is really endless............

[fitguy67]

thanks, Red...I'll chek out wRC+ right now...(note: to avoid having others come and tell me the same thing, i edited my OP to show wRC+ here)

you're right about the defence...of the three major aspects to the game, it's definitely the one where the "ceteris paribus" (ie. all things considered equal) assumption will do the least harm. Seems the very best/worst fielding teams will be +30/-30 runs over the course of a 162 game season...but for pitching and batting the gap between best and worst is MUCH bigger than that.

thanks for helping me make these first few important distinctions/decisions on what to focus on...

[Pete0]

Glad you started this thread

Lots of good info here

Personally i use xFIP and SIERA for pitching

[Redscot]

Glad you started this thread

Lots of good info here

Personally i use xFIP and SIERA for pitching

I agree here that xfip is right up there with SIERA, but Fitguy had a gun to my head and could only choose one.

[fitguy67]

sorry bout that Red (you know i just meant pare everything to essentials...trying to avoid "kitchen sink full of alphabet soup")...

i really can see how and why adding in those extra pitching items u listed IS essential to complement the SIERA'd or xFIP, as they highlight the ruthless rally-snuffing-out effect of K's (especially the swinging variety)...

[Love The Action]

While I understand your request, the correct response is that there is no singular statistic that will be an accurate indicator of future results on its own without being used in conjunction with additional data. Advanced stats are like a jigsaw puzzle - unless you use all the pieces together, you cannot solve the puzzle and each individual piece on its own is worthless without its connection to the other pieces. However, if you learn how to manipulate all of the available advanced stats and data that a fangraphs, baseball reference, etc. provides, then you can give yourself a fighting chance to make consistent +ev wagers by putting all the pieces of the advanced stat puzzle together. Consequently, you are doing yourself a disservice by attempting to utilize one stat because no singular statistic on its own will provide you with the information you need to be profitable in the MLB market. Only when you learn the values behind each stat and what each stat is intended to tell you, will you be using such information in a worthwhile manner. Therefore, when you ask which singular stat I would pick with "a gun to my head", I say pull the trigger because if you only give me one stat to choose from I cannot be profitable and if I can't be profitable there is no point investing in the MLB market. I would recommend that you read "Moneyball" and then dive into the glossary pages at the websites I mentioned above so you learn how to use all the available data in a productive and meaningful way. Good luck.

[YOUNGBUCK]

The line itself

[Redscot]

The line itself

A lot to be said for this. However if you do your homework you can get better numbers. The ability to anticipate where the line WILL go, and to buy in before it moves, long term makes a huge difference in your bank roll.

BTW, nice run Buck, keep up the great work bro.

[Dom177]

Keep it simple. WHIP, BA, ERA, last 3 outing numbers. If you love baseball and watch a lot of it like I do you will know who's going to win the money and who isn't.

[pacocn]

The line itself

Can you expand on this a bit buck, i think you are onto something.
What do you look for in the line, maybe an example of a line would shed
some insight.

[YOUNGBUCK]

For example cpl weeks ago the yanks on the road ab -105 ish to the winless at home Royals like come on easy Royals bet Cubbies day game the other day too

[hydrosmak]

For example cpl weeks ago the yanks on the road ab -105 ish to the winless at home Royals like come on easy Royals bet Cubbies day game the other day too

Yanks yesterday as well.