Detroit is not in a good state at all right now. They just lost 4 out of 6 at home, and have been slumping for most of August.
This is not incidental either, as their offense, which was very productive earlier in the year, has cooled off considerably.
Carlos Guillen has been out for a few days and the most recent report said he "might be ready to play Friday" which means he is almost certainly out for this game. Popular slugger Dmitry Young was cut yesterday, leaving the team further demoralized after their loss. For this game Detroit will likely field a decent but tired lineup that has been producing only modestly for a while now.
However, due to the starting pitching matchup, Detroit has been made the favorite for this game.
Tigers’ starter Justin Verlander, as awesome as he has been at times this season, is in a tough spot here. He seems to have been wearying a bit as the year grinds on, which is not surprising considering how hard he throws and the fact that this is his first full major league season.
Verlander’s last four road starts have been bad, and have gotten progressively worse each time. People have tossed around fatigue and tipped pitches as possible causes for his poor performance and it's clear that he is having troubles. Coming into this game off of a pitch count of 126 with only 4 days of rest only raises the level of concern higher.
On the other side, Minnesota's lineup and starting pitcher Scott Baker certainly both have questions marks of their own.
But Baker seems to have improved a bit since his demotion to the minors, where he was consistently effective after working out some problems. His last start against the tough Yankee lineup was short but effective, and he is likely to have a similar outing here again.
And Minnesota's offense, which has admittedly been struggling as much as Detroit's has, should get a boost playing at home, where they have hit better all year.
Ultimately it is the reputation of Verlander that is causing Detroit to be favored here, and that is what gives value to Minnesota as a home underdog. Both teams are struggling and wearied, but Minnesota will be at home with a solid bullpen and a starter who is likely to keep them in the game.
All in all Minnesota should probably be a small favorite here, not a small underdog.
I like Detroit in this spot. Getting away from home might be good for them. The pitching matchup heavily favors Detroit. Verlander pitched well his last time out.
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Minnesota +110
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