[No coincidences]

I'm no expert gambler or analyst. This is just my opinion on the World Series matchup -- take it or leave it.

I have a lot of respect for San Francisco as a Tiger fan. They do a lot of the little things that Detroit doesn't: manufacture runs, play small ball when necessary, and their bullpen is outstanding. The Tigers have a big offensive edge, and if there's a starting staff better than the Giants' right now, it's Detroit's. Just outstanding pitching matchups across the board in this one. Two best starting staffs in baseball.

I don't see Detroit winning in a runaway like some people seem to be assuming. The Tigers are incredibly talented on paper, but they are inconsistent defensively, on the basepaths and in the bullpen. Bochy is an outstanding manager -- arguably the best in the game today -- and he'll find a way to nickel and dime the Tigers when necessary. I don't assume the time off is helping Detroit either; it didn't in '06 and I hope the momentum isn't sucked out of their clubhouse in similar fashion here. Rest is great, but I'm not convinced basically a full week off benefits them much.

Bottom line: I think Detroit holds a strong edge offensively, and a slight edge with starting pitching (mostly because Lincecum is a shell of his former self now). Bullpen and defense go to SF (bullpen big-time). Managerial edge to the Giants, though not huge. Baserunning and small-ball tactics in SF's corner.

Series seems like a toss-up to me; this was the matchup I wanted to see from an objective standpoint, but speaking as a fan, the Tigers would've been better off against the Cardinals.

[CollegeOverUnder]

Pretty spot on actually. Im a Giants fan. Detroit seems to have more power hitters for sure. But the Giants know how to get on base and get base runners in scoring position. Discipline wise I like the Giants

Bochy vs Leyland im sorry but IMO Bochy is a league above the dude but thats just me.

We still dont know who is starting Game 1 for the Giants so its hard to say much more. If its Zito then so be it, I really want it to be Lincecum but I also like him coming out of the bullpen. I dont care if Lincecum lost his start in the NLCS to the Cardinals I would rather have a 2 CY Young guy starting against another Cy Young in Verlander. I do feel that Vogelsong will win his match up who ever he is paired up against.

[CollegeOverUnder]

I suspect this Series is Over in 6 by either the Tigers or Giants Ill be kinda suprised if it comes to a Game 7

[No coincidences]

Pretty spot on actually. Im a Giants fan. Detroit seems to have more power hitters for sure. But the Giants know how to get on base and get base runners in scoring position. Discipline wise I like the Giants

Bochy vs Leyland im sorry but IMO Bochy is a league above the dude but thats just me.

We still dont know who is starting Game 1 for the Giants so its hard to say much more. If its Zito then so be it, I really want it to be Lincecum but I also like him coming out of the bullpen. I dont care if Lincecum lost his start in the NLCS to the Cardinals I would rather have a 2 CY Young guy starting against another Cy Young in Verlander. I do feel that Vogelsong will win his match up who ever he is paired up against.

I'm probably being too kind to Leyland, but the guy has a solid postseason track record. I'm not a huge fan personally, and Gene Lamont (3rd base coach) can take a flying leap for all I care. Worst in the game -- bar none. He'll cost the Tigers a few runs in the series. Just watch.

The Giants are very effective and efficient at scoring runs. The Tigers are more loose and wild; they don't "value possession of the ball" as much, to use a football or basketball term. It's kind of like a high-powered spread offense going against a conservative team that likes to run, punt and play good D. Very intriguing matchup if you ask me, but of course, 8 out of 10 SBR posters will spend the entire series talking about how boring it is.

[lunchbawks]

wow tigers -164 for series

they've been off for a week, i think the giants can outplay them, manufacture runs and keep most games close

[CollegeOverUnder]

wow tigers -164 for series

they've been off for a week, i think the giants can outplay them, manufacture runs and keep most games close

WTF -164 for the Series are you shitting me what the hell are the Giants getting

[CollegeOverUnder]

I'm probably being too kind to Leyland, but the guy has a solid postseason track record. I'm not a huge fan personally, and Gene Lamont (3rd base coach) can take a flying leap for all I care. Worst in the game -- bar none. He'll cost the Tigers a few runs in the series. Just watch.

The Giants are very effective and efficient at scoring runs. The Tigers are more loose and wild; they don't "value possession of the ball" as much, to use a football or basketball term. It's kind of like a high-powered spread offense going against a conservative team that likes to run, punt and play good D. Very intriguing matchup if you ask me, but of course, 8 out of 10 SBR posters will spend the entire series talking about how boring it is.

again everything you just said is pretty much spot on high power offense vs fundamental team that finds a way to win.

[bleek88]

SF wins World Series, you heard it here first.

[Jago2008]

Series goes to seven and Valverde gives up back-to-back two run HR's and the Giants win. (also allows a backdoor cover on the over).

[actiondan]

Valverde is worrisome. Tigers will need a couple complete games or blowout wins

[Ralphie1412]

I agree that the week off is pretty brutal. The giants are just on fire right now and that team is all about momentum. Also bullpens win games in October. And the giants have a two time cy young in their bullpen.

The real question is, what Barry Zito shows up in game 1? With Verlander on the mound and detroit havent have played in a while, the under looks pretty good in G1

[No coincidences]

I agree that the week off is pretty brutal. The giants are just on fire right now and that team is all about momentum. Also bullpens win games in October. And the giants have a two time cy young in their bullpen.

Not just a two-time Cy Young winner, but a lot of young, capable arms that collectively add up to a much better mix than Coke/Benoit/Dotel/Valverde. I like AA, but he's raw and inexperienced. I'm not buying Coke's fluke run through the Yankee series. He's been a gascan all year.

[EVPlus]

When I saw the series price, I did a double take. I just don't see Det in the neighborhood of -160.

As you stated, No Coin, the Giants know when and how to play small ball.

I also think Bochy has the edge on reading the rhythm of how a game is going and making adjustments based on that particular night. Too many managers go off formulas that may not apply in a given situation (not unlike some gamblers) and, before you know it, the momentum completely shifts and your dugout has the energy of a funeral.

I never liked betting on a series because too many things can happen between the first and last game. I'll just play each game if I see an edge.

[No coincidences]

Valverde is worrisome. Tigers will need a couple complete games or blowout wins

It's not just a confidence issue with Valverde. His stuff is shot. Big difference. Not like he'll just come in and be electric out of the blue this week.

[No coincidences]

When I saw the series price, I did a double take. I just don't see Det in the neighborhood of -160.

As you stated, No Coin, the Giants know when and how to play small ball.

I also think Bochy has the edge on reading the rhythm of how a game is going and making adjustments based on that particular night. Too many managers go off formulas that may not apply in a given situation (not unlike some gamblers) and, before you know it, the momentum completely shifts and your dugout has the energy of a funeral.

I never liked betting on a series because too many things can happen between the first and last game. I'll just play each game if I see an edge.

Agree. I made a bet on SF when they went down 2-1 to StL, but that's one of the only series bets I've ever made and I don't plan on doing one here.

If you like Detroit, bet it now. If you like the Giants, just take them in Game 1 at the same price as the series. If that doesn't hit, take it again at a much better price when they're down 0-1.

[Mike Huntertz]

If needed 3 games from Verlander = 3 wins.
I think Tiggers can win one of the other 4 without V

[Mantle7]

There is no way under any circumstances will Justin Verlander pitch 3 games. He wll pitch games 1 and 5.

Verlander is good but you guys make it sound like he's not human. He could be injured if he pitched that much in such a short time frame and by the time he got to game 7 his arm would be anything but fresh.

[No coincidences]

There is no way under any circumstances will Justin Verlander pitch 3 games. He wll pitch games 1 and 5.

Verlander is good but you guys make it sound like he's not human. He could be injured if he pitched that much in such a short time frame and by the time he got to game 7 his arm would be anything but fresh.

He's as close to non-human as it gets. Guy throws 135 pitches without batting an eye. Arm is rubber like Halladay in his prime.

[Mantle7]

He is kind of the Bionic Man. He couldn't possibly pitch 3 games, though. Its unreasonable.

[MidgetTossers]

Giants have no chance against an MVP/Triple Crown winner and Cy Young winner..those 2 will win the title by themselves

[KktdocT]

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Baseball is such a unique sport that many posters struggle to understand the important nuances, such as timing, rhythm, etc. There's no letdown, being worn out, etc. for the Giants coming off a game 7. Hitting-wise, they'll be able to play game one without important interruptions in key aspects. Pitching is huge and NC nailed it by stating that it's neck and neck. However, the Giants' WS experienced bullpen is a critical advantage and I believe that it's going to be up to both teams' BP's to win the game, which is a scary thought for the Tigers BP situation and overall style of play. I really think that SF wins the WS in 6, possibly 7.

I just want to reiterate something that I have pointed out time and again. In baseball, the harder you try, the worse overall you'll perform. Staying comfortable and poised is critical and the Tigers are going to have more mental obstacles coming in to SF with the break, than SF transitioning to game 1.

[Jago2008]

Baseball is such a unique sport that many posters struggle to understand the important nuances, such as timing, rhythm, etc. There's no letdown, being worn out, etc. for the Giants coming off a game 7. Hitting-wise, they'll be able to play game one without important interruptions in key aspects. Pitching is huge and NC nailed it by stating that it's neck and neck. However, the Giants' WS experienced bullpen is a critical advantage and I believe that it's going to be up to both teams' BP's to win the game, which is a scary thought for the Tigers BP situation and overall style of play. I really think that SF wins the WS in 6, possibly 7.

I just want to reiterate something that I have pointed out time and again. In baseball, the harder you try, the worse overall you'll perform. Staying comfortable and poised is critical and the Tigers are going to have more mental obstacles coming in to SF with the break, than SF transitioning to game 1.

Well said.

[CollegeOverUnder]

All I no is im gonna be Giddy if Coke or Valverde get sent in and its only a 1 run game or a tie game

[EVPlus]

Baseball is such a unique sport that many posters struggle to understand the important nuances, such as timing, rhythm, etc. There's no letdown, being worn out, etc. for the Giants coming off a game 7. Hitting-wise, they'll be able to play game one without important interruptions in key aspects. Pitching is huge and NC nailed it by stating that it's neck and neck. However, the Giants' WS experienced bullpen is a critical advantage and I believe that it's going to be up to both teams' BP's to win the game, which is a scary thought for the Tigers BP situation and overall style of play. I really think that SF wins the WS in 6, possibly 7.

I just want to reiterate something that I have pointed out time and again. In baseball, the harder you try, the worse overall you'll perform. Staying comfortable and poised is critical and the Tigers are going to have more mental obstacles coming in to SF with the break, than SF transitioning to game 1.

That's just why I found it so hard to believe Vegas gave Det -160 for the series. Look what the Giants did against the Big Red Choke Machine. Look what they did against the Cards. This level of momentum and belief in one's abilities gives a team that patient confidence.

Detroit, for their part, has the triple crown winner and, arguably, one the greatest pitchers. They are also very much aware of the curse that fall upon teams with significant down time. They know they can't play sloppy baseball in game 1 because that will shift all the focus on the "curse." I think they also know their manager doesn't have too many years in the league and will bust their ass to give him the title.

If this diatribe sounds like I haven't taken a side on the series, that's because I honestly cannot see a good angle either way. I still think Det at -160 is over priced. And taking SF at +whatever may not be wise either. I still say any decent edge will be found in each individual game.

[1Time!]

NC, series correct score prediction? I'm thinking Detroit 4-2 looks the goods if you like Detroit instead of paying the heavy juice h2h

[JayLA]

That's just why I found it so hard to believe Vegas gave Det -160 for the series. Look what the Giants did against the Big Red Choke Machine. Look what they did against the Cards. This level of momentum and belief in one's abilities gives a team that patient confidence.

Detroit, for their part, has the triple crown winner and, arguably, one the greatest pitchers. They are also very much aware of the curse that fall upon teams with significant down time. They know they can't play sloppy baseball in game 1 because that will shift all the focus on the "curse." I think they also know their manager doesn't have too many years in the league and will bust their ass to give him the title.

If this diatribe sounds like I haven't taken a side on the series, that's because I honestly cannot see a good angle either way. I still think Det at -160 is over priced. And taking SF at +whatever may not be wise either. I still say any decent edge will be found in each individual game.

Very solid post.
Dominican guy who's built bankroll on MLB, very knowledgeable, called this morning and said to take SF wherever +EV. Game by game, he says, Giants win.

These kind of people dont think about edge but seem to make thousands off of their knowledge alone.

[JayLA]

Very solid post.
Dominican guy who's built bankroll on MLB, very knowledgeable, called this morning and said to take SF wherever +EV. Game by game, he says, Giants win.

These kind of people dont think about edge but seem to make thousands off of their knowledge alone.

This guy must have made at least 30,000 on the giants. I only made a couple hundred

BANG!

[Snowball]

Saying it was small ball, every pitch focus, manufacturing runs,
or any such just doesn't cut the mustard in attempting to describe
what has transpired. This was beyond that..
The Detroit Tigers, offensive team capable of consistent production
totally fell apart at the plate. Was it the 1-week layoff ? Sure had
something to do with it, but no excuse for professionals !
The Tigers scored 6 runs in the entire Series.
They were shut out completely in two games.
Do they fire the batting coaches ?
Teams with the momentum and focus have an edge especially in
late October, but this was very strange.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_World_Series#Summary