Oakland 64% - There should be more of the same in this game for Boston.

Barry Zito can be a bit of a head case, and his recent struggles at home are not insignificant. And if anyone on the Red Sox' staff is going to power-pitch them to a win with a complete game shutout, it's Curt Schilling.

But still, the problems with the Red Sox are very real, and while Oakland of course is not a lock to win, they have a major edge overall, giving them value as a surprisingly modestly-priced home favorite.


Cleveland 65% - Cleveland continues to roll, and their newly capable bullpen got a day off with yesterday's CG by Sabathia. Toronto starter Shawn Marcum is likely to have a decent start, but he is also likely to be outpitched by Jeremy Sowers, who is not being overextended at all and should be very sharp as long as he is in the game. Toronto hits lefties well but they are likely to get shut down here.


Atlanta 62% - Atlanta has dealt with injuries all season long, but when they have all their big bats in the lineup together, it can become incredibly explosive. This has happened before, and it seems like it is happening again. Not many teams can put up double digits three games in a row, and Atlanta is starting to look like it did when it went on its last explosive offensive run in mid-July. When that happens, the negative impact of their shaky pitching becomes much less significant. In this game they will not be at a disadvantage in starting pitching. They may well slug their way to another win here no matter what happens, and as such they have value as a modestly-priced home favorite.


White Sox 77% - This is one of those games where there is likely good value on the side of a big favorite, despite the high win percentage the favorite's line implies.

Jon Garland has been very effective recently, and he is likely to have another quality start here against the modest Tampa Bay lineup. Tim Corcoran has been very mediocre as a starter this year, and he will be challenged every inning against the potent White Sox' offense.

Giving extra value is the fact that if Garland does get hit, the White Sox will have a better than normal chance to make up for it, and if Corcoran does throw a good game, Tampa Bay will have a worse than normal chance of taking advantage of that.

Tampa Bay has lost all 10 of their road games in August, but the current lines give them a better than 30% chance of winning this one. Considering that the conditions for this game are worse for Tampa Bay than they have been for most of their 10 losses in August, the White Sox have pretty clear value here, even as a huge favorite.


Mets 61% - The Mets are in steamroll mode right now. Colorado, bringing Josh Fogg, a mediocre lineup, and a mediocre-at-best bullpen to the table for this game, is going to be hard-pressed to stop it here.

Again, the Mets will have an advantage as every inning their offense will have the potential to slug its way to a big lead, and in the later innings, their bullpen will have the depth and quality to tame the opposing lineup. The starting pitching matchup rates roughly even, but after that, the Mets' advantages compound every inning.

The Mets' winning has mostly come at home in August, but that is incidental; on the year, they have actually been slightly more undervalued on the road than they have been at home. They have value here as a small favorite.