[Bulldog]

Hey guys,

As you might figure, Im pretty new to the Forum.
Big Baseball and Soccer fan so.
I was looking at today's lines and wanted some opinions and pointers in a couple of games.

ATL/NYY

Braves Fan, gotta confess.
Like the pithcing matchup, Hudson and Johnson. Should be a nice one to watch.
Under 9.5 -115??? I like it! How about you?
Braves +150?? Why not. Braves dont look as bad against LHP this year as they did on the past? Not like they have been hitting anyone lately but...
Anyway, no perfect game this time!!


STL/CLE

I dont think the Cards lose 7 straight.
I like Marquis to get a W 2 night
Cards -120. Ill definitely take that.
Any input??

Ill ask you guys bout other games later on.
Thanks a lot

Bullldog

[BuddyBear]

well I'll begin by stating I am not betting baseball this year so I am a bit out of the loop but I follow baseball very closely probably more so than any other sport.

Anyway, when I read your post a red flag went up. That is you want to bet on two teams that have combined to lose 16 of their 18 games and the Cardinals who were outscored 55-24 in thier last 6 games. I think some of your reasoning is solid but I would be hesistant to pull the trigger on ATL even with Hudson. Hudson is basically a name pitcher now and no where near his form of the past few years espeically his years with the A's. That being said, the same can be said for Randy Johnson. The Braves have not played well on the road all year so there is no reason to believe it will start tonight at Yankee stadium but on the bright side +150 is a good price and it might be worth a shot.

The Cardinals one is a toss up...on the one hand STL is back home playing an equally struggling team....however one of there top pitcher is on the mound. Jason Marquis is nothing special a 5th starter for sure who got lit up his last outing. Right now pitching is at a premium for the Cardinals after the past two series. I really think this is a toss up and can see no edge to either ball club. One other thing, I think your logic is a bit faulty in the sense that you can't see STL losing 7 games in a row....i doubt anyone saw them losing six in a row or 5 in a row....over the course of a 162 game year it's not uncommon to go on long streaks like this but this should not be a reason why you bet the cards.

Personally, looking at the other games I would take a serious look at Philadelphia...for Tim Wakefield to be a -174 favorite is ridiculous...i don't care if he is at home this is a pitcher in major decline.

Also, you might want to consider Milwaukee tonight with Chris Cappuano. I was a bit suprised at this line considering Greg Maddux owns Milwaukee over his career he has an unreal record against them. However, Chris Cappuano is probably the best pitcher nobody has ever heard of. Guy is an absolutely stud and has been one of the best pitcher over the past two years in the majors and he has the most wins among left hand starters over that time. All but one of his starts this year have been considered a quality start. The guy is also been the best money pitcher the past two years across baseball...that is if you had bet everyone of his outings since the beginnning of last year to this year you would have made a mint. Cappuano already beat CHC this year at Wrigley 9-0 complete game effort. The books are showing a lot of respect for Cappuano by making him a road favorite against a guy who dominates them. Books know the sharps will be on Cappuano...Maddux is fading this past month and a half and I would keep fading him especially against such a quality pitcher like Cappuano.

[Bulldog]

THX BB
Actually I was thinking Cubs... jajajaja.
I buy your argumen although i gotta confess that I do look at the streaks line in the stats everyday. I have a big hunch on the Cards tonight. Marquis isnt a bad pitcher. Sure he got litup last time out but his ERA before that was pretty decent.
Anyway, thanks for the imput. Phillies do look like a good pick today.
Sometimes when you follow a team some players stick with you. This might be harmful when you are betting.
Maybe this explains why I was so eager to bet on both the braves and 2 exbraves (Maddux and Marquis)
Gotta fix that if i wanna be succesful
THX again

[tacomax]

Keep up the work with the write-ups, Bulldog. It's always good to hear other people's perspectives on a game.

And what I tend to find is that if you're betting against Randy Johnson then there's a pretty good chance that you're on the right side of the game.

[BuddyBear]

THX BB
Actually I was thinking Cubs... jajajaja.
I buy your argumen although i gotta confess that I do look at the streaks line in the stats everyday. I have a big hunch on the Cards tonight. Marquis isnt a bad pitcher. Sure he got litup last time out but his ERA before that was pretty decent.
Anyway, thanks for the imput. Phillies do look like a good pick today.
Sometimes when you follow a team some players stick with you. This might be harmful when you are betting.
Maybe this explains why I was so eager to bet on both the braves and 2 exbraves (Maddux and Marquis)
Gotta fix that if i wanna be succesful
THX again

No problem BD...whatever you select good luck. To be honest, I could think of a number of reasons why CHC might be a good play tonight but I would lean MIL but maybe that's b/c I am a brewer fan more less.

[BuddyBear]

Keep up the work with the write-ups, Bulldog. It's always good to hear other people's perspectives on a game.

And what I tend to find is that if you're betting against Randy Johnson then there's a pretty good chance that you're on the right side of the game.

actually if you bet agaisnt Randy Johnson this year, more times than not you will be on the right side of the game as his team is 9-7 in his starts. However, moneywise the Big Unit is down about a unit $-120.

The problem is that the Big Unit is going to carry a big price tag whenever he pitches anywhere between -160 to -300 usually. Even last year in his starts NYY went 22-13 yet he finished $-638. Now consider Chris Cappuano whose team also went 22-13 in his starts but if you bet on everyone of those games you would have won $+1118 assuming you played the unit price.

In short, based on the available data your best bet is either bet angainst the Big Unit or do not bet on him at all....not worth the high price as there is far better value on so many other pitchers across the diamond.

[moses millsap]

You'd be rich taking the opposition's team total in Randy starts. The Braves hitters might only scrape 5 runs together in a whiffle ball game, so I'm not sure that is the correct path tonight in the Bronx.

[tacomax]

However, moneywise the Big Unit is down about a unit $-120.

Henceforth, if you're betting against Randy Johnson then there's a pretty good chance that you're on the right side of the game. Thanks for disagreeing but then backing up my statement.

[BuddyBear]

ummm....right side refers to winning side the way you phrased it. Of course, you just threw it out randomly w/o providing a shred of evidence to support your statement.

If you bet on randy johnson in 2006 you will be on the right side to the extant that you have correctly picked the winning side but in terms of money side you are on the wrong side. Think about it what if he is doing a parlay does he care about ML units anymore????

You need to be more clear...i know you never finished high school and can't make such things clear but I am trying to help BullDog out and you are only trying to confuse him.

Do you ever wonder why not a single person on here likes you Taco? Seriously outside a few mods who have to like everyone nobody likes you....so would u just leave this forum once and for all

[tacomax]

I was just passing comment on Bulldog's post and providing a comment on one of his picks (since it's good to have new posters here who post their thoughts and refrain from insulting others, always a nice change). And then you turn it into (yet another) pissing match. Feel free to carry on without me.

[MrX]

I like taco.
I also like Randy Johnson tonight.
I'm on the wrong side of everything.

[BuddyBear]

well well taco you were providing some misinformation to one of our newer posters. If you were going to make such a comment you should have the decency to provide some evidence in the form of data...not just some random comment.

Whose comment do you think is more helpful....

And what I tend to find is that if you're betting against Randy Johnson then there's a pretty good chance that you're on the right side of the game.


or

actually if you bet agaisnt Randy Johnson this year, more times than not you will be on the right side of the game as his team is 9-7 in his starts. However, moneywise the Big Unit is down about a unit $-120.

The problem is that the Big Unit is going to carry a big price tag whenever he pitches anywhere between -160 to -300 usually. Even last year in his starts NYY went 22-13 yet he finished $-638.


All you are doing is confusing bulldog....what if he wants to do a parlay do you still think that betting against R.Johnson is a good idea.


Then you start the daily pissing match with this comment...

Thanks for disagreeing but then backing up my statement.


Unfortunately for you, you did not finish high school and can't tell that not only am I not backing up your statement I am providing counter evidence to it moron.

I gave bulldog factual information...you give him a random sentence....i am sure bulldog is appreciative of your efforts but he probably does not know that you are a retard yet but eventualy he will figure it out like everyone else on here.

Stick with the lousy soccer pics....sorry I have to keep embarrassing you like Pags does.

[Bulldog]

Dnt want to cause all the mess
Anyway i appreciate everyones input
Statistical data and personal opinions too
lets keep it cool guys
we all love the game and winning some $$

[BuddyBear]

did you hop on Cappuano Bulldog....the guy is an absolute stud pitcher....a sharp's secret.

[Illusion]

did you hop on Cappuano Bulldog....the guy is an absolute stud pitcher....a sharp's secret.

Capuano has made me a fortune the past two years. It also helps when you are playing one of the worst teams in the league. Will the Cubs ever score again.

[Bulldog]

You guys wont believe this.
On the best bets thread I took the Braves, the Cubs and the Cardinals.
Luckily I only bet on the Cards game but still, tough day at the diamond, what can I say.

[BuddyBear]

Don't worry bulldog...i could sit down for hours and talk about all my 0-? days....it happens just got to move on.

Anyway, if I was betting on bases I know I would bet Cappuano every time he pitched....guy is unreal...I've basically watched everyone of his starts the past two years and he is impressive. I went to the game against the Tigers last week and he basically held in check one of the best offenses.

The guy has 27 wins over the past two years and it seems like nobody in the baseball world even notices....i guess that will keep his price down at least

[moses millsap]

When did Capuano buy an extra P for his name?

[Illusion]

When did Capuano buy an extra P for his name?

Where's spellchecker when you need him.

[Bulldog]

BB thanks for the advice, if I listened to you yesterday I would have been 3-0 instead of 0-3.
Being a Braves fan in this time doesnt help. Both exbrave pithcers got outpitched yesterday and so did Hudson.
I knew Capuano was good, just had a little too much faith in Greg's old magic!!
But I will try again today, you can bet on it!! jajajaja