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Texas -140/150 Tomorrow
They have destroyed oakland this year (9-1 against them). Derek Holland also has good stats against Oakland, while the rangers bullpen has been dominant
this is the best moneyline play I see on the board for tomorrow on a pretty weak day IMO
edit: the line is 150 on bookmaker, 135-140 on other books
Last edited by brahmabull117; 09-20-11 at 12:57 AM.
Originally Posted by tonyp0387
why would it be any higher?? Oakland's home record is better than the rangers road record
I'm throughly convinced you are not a real person. Just a bot made by SBR mods in order to keep up traffic @ SBR.
Yo SBR, you need to crank up the artificial Intelligenced on this bot. Its set on stupid.
9-1 against them...........you got a bad number i could still get -140 gl with that
At -137 my model actually likes this play but for other reasons. I'll bite.
I've been Ice cold lately. Good luck.
Take the RL here. They will win by more than 1.
Take the RL here. They will win by more than 1.
there's no value here at the runline here IMO
I play a runline when it differs from the moneyline by at least a 100... I don't even think the difference here will be 70 or 80
How is it possible to be ice cold recently if you have any clue what you're doing?
Wow.
what do you dislike about this play??
rangers are still working on clinching the division while the A's have been struggling. Holland has been pitching great and harden has been terrible
This guy is as dumb as they come
Laying -150 on the road should be saved for special circumstances for starters.
I clearly don't have to explain the mathematical principles of the trends in sports betting to you...
So I will asume this comment was an attempt to solicit an over the top response/reaction in all caps ect.....No dice.
Simply put, over a small sample size, I am not happy with my results in the more efficient September sides market.
Totals have been a different story for me.
GL God1
If you've been winning in totals this month you are absolutely square
I disagree. Thanks.
"variance" look it up
there are some totals positions this month that I can't imagine have been overlooked by anyone who knows what they're doing and they have been getting crushed even if you are handily beating the closer on a regular basis
Just cause u suck and having been losing, hardball is a square ?
it's -150 on bookmaker, -140 or better on books with lower baseball moneylines
again, I don't necessarily love this play but it's the only moneyline I see where there is a significant edge for one side (I like the red sox RL as well). The rangers are a team that just seem to own certain opponents, they entered that cleveland series having won 19 of 23 against the indians and they swept them.. They have dominated the mariners this season and they just beat them again 2 out of 3
Pitching matchup wise, Derek Holland is not a great pitcher but he has been awesome this month and harden has been struggling for a long long while. The rangers bullpen has also been awesome recently so even if Holland struggles, the rangers should be able to pull out a close one
....and Oakland it is !!!
Do you like Milwaukee again tomorrow ? How about Philly ? Yanks ? Boston ? Zona ?
You're kidding right?
I'm happy with my z score being north of +2 in totals.
Do I need to still look up variance?.....
The standard deviation on the results of the totals positions this month that I am talking about lies beyond the 2nd
why do so many people on this site love playing baseball totals??
It's a total crapshoot unless you take pitchers who have been completely destroying everything in sight (kershaw vs timmy tomorrow) or pitchers that have been absolutely terrible facing good hitting teams (boston tonight)
To be honest I had assumed a portion of the totals "smart" market was something akin to how quant funds generally crowd into similar trades and usually swing down in tandem
I have no idea how many positions you are taking a day, but unless you are betting nearly all the games these "sharp" losses should've eaten through a chunk of your profit if not all that you had this month
Last edited by God1; 09-20-11 at 01:03 AM.
You can chase totals just like sides, players want to keep their stats up, if you know a team is good and they just got shut out (Phillies) chase the over for the next few games and it should hit.
If the team's offense sucks (Giants, As, Mariners) chase the under.
Also, it's a great way to cut juice or to hedge very risky plays. For example, if Team A hits well v Team B pitcher, but Team A is high juice, take Team B and OVER, because you know they'll only win if they over hits. And vice-versa if Team A sucks but has a good pitcher, only way Team A will win is with Under.
God1, your arguments are completely irrelevant. This is gambling. It's not that hard.
the problem is that you have to handicap for both team's bullpens
how many times is a game 3-0 heading into the 9th inning when some scrubby garbage time reliever gives up 6 runs to destroy a total???
Yep, it's not a perfect system. But I wouldn't write off totals completely. There is money to be made.
i think its set at "retarded"
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