[Ganchrow]

Washington 52% - This is a bad spot for Boston. Snyder was cut by Kansas City this year, and he was winless in the minors. The Boston pen is also extended, which is likely to haunt them in this game as Snyder is very unlikely to go deep into the game with any success. Washington has an offense that is approaching mediocrity, and their pen is capable and rested and has some depth to it. Armas is likely to get hit, but is also capable of throwing a stretch of shutout innings, even vs stronger lineups like Boston's.

Cleveland 59% - Marshall's high degree of volatility benefits the Cubs here. Both teams are having similar problems in all areas of the game right now, and while Cleveland's lineup is more likely to rebound for this game, the Cubs have an edge with Marshall, who is likely to neutralize the Cleveland lineup.

Yankees 55% - Johnson is likely to be vulnerable to getting hit again, but the seemingly underachieving Philadelphia lineup could let him off the hook. There is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding his likely outing here. Myers is likely to get hit by the still strong Yankee lineup, and his most likely outcome for this game is mediocre. The Yankees rate a lineup edge, but Philadelphia rates a bullpen edge.

Mets 54% - There is a high degree of uncertainty to this game, due to strongly conflicting statistical likelihoods. Cincinnati has a strong edge in starting pitching, while the Mets have a strong edge in their combination of lineup and bullpen. The confidence factor we have for this game is low. Arroyo is likely to throw a strong game, while Hernandez has a high volatility factor, and his performance has a low degree of certainty for any outcome. The Mets have a strong pen edge, but that edge is likely to be greatly minimized by Arroyo's performance.

[bigboydan]

i like washington myself tonight.

any thoughts on the Reds/mets game ?

[moses millsap]

Interested to see the % for the Oakland/Rockies game.

[Ganchrow]

Interested to see the % for the Oakland/Rockies game.

I will post that by 8 PM at the latest.

[Ganchrow]

Milwaukee 51% - Bonderman is likely to get hit here. His chances of having either a mediocre outing or a bad outing are both higher than normal. Davis has a low volatility factor for this game, which benefits Milwaukee. Detroit does have a bullpen edge for this game, reducing Milwaukee's edge a bit.

Oakland 56% - Kim is not likely to have a good game here. His most likely outing is a mediocre one, and while Haren is likely to continue his recent strong pitching, he is not likely to go deep into this game, and the weakness Oakland has in the pen will likely be exposed. There is a high degree of uncertainty to this game, as the key factors are how deep Haren will go, how poor of an outing Kim will have, and how much Colorado can come back vs the Oalkand pen. Small changes in those factors greatly affect the likelihoods of various outcomes of the game.

[bigboydan]

anything on the halo's/giants game ganchrow ?

[Ganchrow]

San Francisco 51% - The Angels still have an extended pen and that is a vulnerable area here. Escobar, though is likely to have a quality start. Cain is also likely to throw a good game. This game rates very even, as both starters have similar expected outcomes, as do both lineups. San Francisco rates a slight bullpen edge.

[tacomax]

Another loss for Randy, despite a reasonable performance (to this season's standards at least).

[moses millsap]

Another loss for Randy, despite a reasonable performance (to this season's standards at least).

That was a great game indeed

[bigboydan]

Another loss for Randy, despite a reasonable performance (to this season's standards at least).

your fading of RJ is paying off i see grasshopper