[Pittviper Sports]

PittVipers MLB - Wednesday May 10th, 2011

[Pick #1 of 2]

Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles


Game Date: 5/10/2011
Game Time: 7:05 PM
Picking: Full Game


ROT# 923 – 7:05pm EST: Seattle Mariners +102

Risk 2 units to win 2.04 units

Line from: 5dimes.com


Pick Write-up

Public Betting Percentage: 54% of the public is on Seattle; 46% of the public is on Baltimore.

My Ranking: Seattle has 56.5% chance of winning; Baltimore has a 43.5% chance of winning.

Expected Starting Pitchers :

Seattle Mariners : Michael Pineda (4-2, 2.58 ERA)

Baltimore Orioles: Jake Arrieta (4-1, 4.35 ERA)

The (16-19) Seattle Mariners visit Camden Yards today to take on the (14-19) Baltimore Orioles. Seattle has won six of their past ten games, overall, losing their most recent game in extra innings; they are 6-2 in games following a loss. Baltimore has won four of their past ten games, overall, including four straight losses and only one win in their past seven games. Seattle is 8-8 playing on the road this season but is 6-1 in their past seven road games. Baltimore is 7-11 playing at home this season but is 2-7 in their past nine home games.

Both teams had Monday off, to rest, so this marks game one of a three game series between these two ball clubs. Seattle is 5-0 in their last five, during game one of a series … while Baltimore is 2-6 in their last eight, during game one of a series. Seattle has won six of their past ten games, overall, losing their most recent game in extra innings; they are 6-2 in games following a loss. Baltimore has won four of their past ten games, overall, including four straight losses and only one win in their past seven games.

Michael Pineda (4-2, 2.58 ERA) gets the start for the Seattle Mariners today. This 22-year old Right hander is a rookie, but is off to an outstanding rookie season. Through six games this season, Pineda has an ERA of 2.58, a WHIP of 1.07 and has struck-out 39 batters through 38 innings of work. He has pitched a minimum six innings in all six starts and has kept opposing teams to two runs or less in four of his six starts. On the road he is 2-1, with an ERA of 3.00, a WHIP of 1.11 and striking out 18 batters in 18 innings of work. He was also very solid in the minor leagues, sporting record of 31-14 an ERA of 2.49, a WHIP of 1.08 and striking out 396 batters in 404 innings of work. His height of 6’7, towers over opposing batters and both his power and control have been very impressive; opposing batters are hitting just .210 against him this season. It will be very difficult for new opposing batters to hit off this kid, this season, and I expect he will be a stud for years to come; possibly an ACE one day soon. I expect him to continue his strong rookie campaign tonight and bounce back from his only subpar outing of the season, last game versus the bat-heavy Texas Rangers(who had already seen him pitch once this season) when he gave up 7 hits and 0 walks - but allowed four runs - through seven innings of work. He also threw 9 strikeouts in that game, but surprisingly it was still his worst showing of 2011 – this kid is good and I don’t expect Baltimore’s bats to be able to do much versus him, especially the first couple times through their rotation!

Jake Arrieta (4-1, 4.35 ERA) gets the start for the Baltimore Orioles today. Through seven games, the right hander has an ERA of 4.35, a WHIP of 1.25 and has struck-out 33 batters in 39 innings of work; opposing batters are hitting .231. Last season, Arrietas’ rookie campaign, he had an ERA of 4.66, a WHIP of 1.53 and struck-out 52 batters (compared to 48 walks) in 100 innings of pitching; opposing batters hit .271 against him … all very ugly numbers. He has pitched a minimum six innings in five of his seven starts and has kept opposing teams to two runs or less in just three of his seven starts. At Camden Yards, Baltimore’s home field, Arrieta has a 2-1 record but an ERA of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.45; giving up 21 hits, 10 walks and 12 runs in 21 innings of work. Jake Arrieta has had a few quality starts this season, but through lack of control and patience, he has been giving up too many runs and is nothing in comparison to Seattle’s Michael Pineda.

The Seattle Mariners offense is batting a combined .225 this season overall, .225 on the road and .221 in their last ten games. The Baltimore Orioles offense is batting a combined .230 this season overall, .223 at home and .221 in their last ten starts. Versus Right-handed pitchers, Seattle is batting .208 this season overall, .207 on the road and .220 in their last ten games; however, they are 7-2 in their last nine starts versus Right -handed pitchers. Versus Right-handed pitchers, Baltimore is batting .233 this season overall, .240 at home and .190 in their last ten games; however, they are 2-5 in their last seven home starts versus Right-handed pitchers. Neither team is full with great hitters, but Seattle posseses more speed on the base pads and typically will lay down bunts or sacrifice plays to get players in scoring position, they do not need to score all that often with the type of pitching support they have.

Seattle’s bullpen has been solid in 2011, with an ERA of 3.32 / a WHIP of 1.20 in 84 innings of work. Baltimore’s bullpen has been called upon more often than Seattle, which is a testament to Seattles pitching or Baltimore’s lack-of, and has been shaky this season, with an ERA of 4.93 / a WHIP of 1.43 in 100 innings of work.


Key Injuries:

Seattle: The Mariners are hoping Chone Figgins (knee) will be ready for Tuesday's series opener in Baltimore.

Figgins was held out Sunday after fouling a ball off his right knee on Saturday afternoon. The 33-year-old is batting .217/.269/.308 with six stolen bases.

Baltimore: An MRI revealed that Luke Scott has a partial tear of the labrum in his right shoulder.

Scott has been playing through the malady and will continue to do so, but he's expected to need offseason surgery, which will undoubtedly affect how much he'll be able to make as a pending free agent. It doesn't appear to be a big deal in regards to how he'll be able to produce this season, as he's hitting .306 with four homers and 10 RBI over his last 13 games. The injury bothers Scott when he is throwing, though, which could result in more playing time in left field for Felix Pie.

Other news:

Milton Bradley has been sent down to minors by the Seattle Mariners on Monday. He was taking up a $12 million contract and hitting a lack-luster .181 average this season. He has been a problem in Seattle’s dressing room and I personally feel that this will both be a positive boost for Seattle’s communication and locker room as well as a quick in the butt that “if you don’t play well, your job is not guaranteed”.

Final prediction:

I like for this to be a low scoring game with Seattle being the victor.

I predict a 4-2 Seattle win


The next best value bet, IN MY OPINION:

Arizona Diamondbacks +175

[Solid value here, but Tim Lincecum has had Arizona’s number in the past few seasons with 12 quality starts in 14 matchups, including a win in 4 of his past 5 games versus Arizona – thus I cannot pull the trigger on this one. NO BET.]


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[Pick #2 of 2]

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays


Game Date: 5/10/2011
Game Time: 7:05 PM
Picking: Full Game


ROT# 921 – 7:05pm EST: Boston/Toronto over 7.5 -108

Risk 2.5 units to win 2.31 units

Line from: 5dimes.com


Pick Write-Up


Expected Starting Pitchers:

Boston Red Sox: Jon Lester (4-2, 2.33 ERA)

Toronto Blue Jays: Kyle Drabek (2-2, 4.5 ERA)

The Lefty, Jon Lester gets the start for Boston tonight but will be facing a team that loves left handed pitchers, the Toronto Blue Jays. Lester has been great this season keeping opposing teams to two runs or less in five of his seven starts and has rallied off four straight wins. He has only given up nine hits/walks in two of these seven starts, with one of those games being versus the Blue Jays, when Boston beat Toronto 8-1 – in mid April. He is has a 2.39 ERA on the road this season.

The right-handed Kyle Drabek gets the start for Toronto tonight, in his second MLB season but first full season (he started only three games last year when he had an ERA of 4.76, a WHIP of 1.35 and a BAA of .295). In 2011, his numbers aren’t much better, if at all, with an ERA of 4.50, a WHIP of 1.63 and a BAA of .263 through seven starts. He has given up 37 hits, 20 runs and a terrible 25 walks in just 38 innings of work. He has only lasted six+ innings in three of his seven starts this season, allowing opponents 10+ hits/walks in five of these seven starts and has given up 3+ runs in four straight games. I expect another lack-luster performance tonight versus the visiting Red Sox. At home, this season, he has an ERA of 3.65 and a WHIP of 1.11, but has had only pitched 12 innings. I follow this Toronto team very closely and his control has been all over the place, especially recently. In his last three starts Drabek has an ERA of 7.07 and a WHIP of 2.0.

The Boston Red Sox offense is batting a combined .251 this season overall, .223 on the road and .275 in their last ten games. The Toronto Blue Jays offense is batting a combined .244 this season overall, .250 at home and .228 in their last ten starts. Versus Right-handed pitchers, Boston is batting .250 this season overall, .228 on the road and .276 in their last ten games. Versus Left-handed pitchers, Toronto is batting .286 this season overall, .287 at home and .322 in their last ten games; they love lefties! Toronto also has very good news that their power horse Jose Bautista has was re-activated off the DTD injury list a few nights ago and Aaron Hill got his first two appearances the past two nights, since being sent to the 15 day DL on April 19th; he had one hits on four appearances, both nights, (2-8) and will be a great boost for Toronto’s offense and morale.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen has struggled this season with a 4.50 ERA and 1.27 WHIP (1.55 in their past three games); they also got some extra work last night as Boston’s game versus Minnesota needed extra innings before deciding a winner.

Toronto’s bullpen has been strong this season with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP … BUT … Toronto’s bullpen has been taxed lately: in two of their past three games Toronto’s starting pitchers have managed to last only three innings; therefore, half of their players will not be available to pitch if needed in tonight’s game.

Key Trends:

Over is 6-2 in Red Sox last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Over is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Over is 5-2 in Lesters last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.


Over is 5-1-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Over is 11-3 in Blue Jays last 14 during game 1 of a series.

Over is 6-2-1 in Blue Jays last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.

Over is 3-1-1 in Drabeks last 5 starts overall.


Key Batter vs. Pitcher Matchup:

Corey Patterson vs. Jon Lester - 5-for-12 (.417), 1 2B, 1 HR,


Key injuries:

Adam Lind – DOUBTFUL for the Blue Jays

Lind was forced to miss Sunday and Monday's games due to lower back tightness. He is expected to miss Tuesday's game against the Red Sox.

He has been playing well this season but is only 3-17 (.176) lifetime versus Lester [the worst numbers of any Blue Jay versus Lester].


PittVipers Final Prediction:

Boston gets the win, but the Blue Jays will get some runs off both Lester and Boston’s bullpen.

Boston 6 - Toronto 4

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Best of Luck,
PittViper

[Pittviper Sports]

To view my MLB Spreadsheet for Tuesday May 10th, Click the link:
http://spreadsheets1.google.com/spre...nw&hl=en#gid=0

What do these spreadsheets include?

• TEAM BY TEAM MATCHUPS: WITH THEIR RECORDS, GAME TIMES & ROTATION NUMBERS
• LINKS FOR EVERY TEAMS HOME PAGES, MATCHUPS, TRENDS AND STARTING PITCHERS [MLB ONLY]
• PUBLIC BETTING PERCENTAGES FOR EVERY TEAM
• MY sportsbooks CURRENT BETTING LINE [5dimes] WITH THAT LINE ALSO CONVERTED INTO EXPECTED WIN %
• THE USA TODAYS SAGARIN RATINGS/PREDICTED GAME OUTCOME
• THE MASSEY RATINGS/PREDICTED GAME OUTCOME
• THE DUNKEL INDEX RATINGS/PREDICTED GAME OUTCOME
• THE AVERAGE RANKING = SAGARIN, MASSEY AND DUNKEL RATINGS COMBINED TO CREATE ONE OVERALL RANKING
• THAT AVERAGE RANKING CONVERTED INTO EXPECTED WIN PROBABILITY - TO GIVE A FIRM EXPECTED WIN %
• VALUE = THE AVERAGE RANKING IN EXPECTED WIN%, COMPARED TO MY SPORTSBOOKS LINE IN EXPECTED WIN %

The purpose of these rankings are to show you which teams have longterm VALUE compared to the sportsbooks lines. The majority of the value will be on UNDERDOGS, as underdogs don't get any respect! They don't get respect from the public, sometimes leading to higher than deserved lines - thus creating VALUE - and they don't get it from their opposition. Good teams can sometimes take bad teams lightly, especially if players and coaches minds are focussed on other things, like more difficult/important up-coming games.

To find the VALUE: you subtract the AVERAGE RANKING WIN % from the SPORTSBOOKS EXPECTED WIN%

For Example:

If the AVERAGED RANKING WIN% says: Team A has a win probabilitiy of 55% and Team B has a win probabilitiy of 45% and

My sportsbooks line is -120 on Team A and +100 on Team B (meaning the win probabilities are: Team A 52.17% and Team B 47.83%) ...

Then Team A has a (+)2.83% edge [55% - 52.17%] and Team B has a (-)2.83% edge [45% - 47.83%].

So Team A has 2.83% VALUE compared to the sportsbook line. The stronger the value, typically, the better.

Now, the VALUE/GAME PREDICTIONS should just be used as a starting point. It is just one tool, in your toolbelt holding many tools, for handicapping sports. No outside factors are considered with these predictions such as WEATHER - INJURIES - MOTIVATION/REST - SITUATION ETC.

I look at my spreadsheet every morning, after developing it, then begin handicapping the teams that show value - to see which teams not only show value but also show strong, favorable short term and long term situations. I then use all of the other tools, i've developed, polished and used over the past decade of sports handicapping, to narrow this list down to the best bet(s) of the day.

I use completely different methods to find the best total of the day, but I do use Sagarin Ratings and Massey ratings to help narrow down the games i'll handicap (this will not really be talked about on the spreadsheets but the information is still there).

Best of Luck,
PittViper

[boeing power]

good luck pitt, they look good, i hope your right on the seattle prediction, i got orioles team total under 3.5

[Pittviper Sports]

good luck pitt, they look good, i hope your right on the seattle prediction, i got orioles team total under 3.5

Thanks and good luck BP - That proposition bet looks very solid!

Best of Luck,
PittViper

[Pittviper Sports]

A little good luck bump before game time!