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Important things to watch for in Baseball?
So I'm trying my hand this season at bases and am getting annihilated. Just curious if anyone has any tips or important factors to watch for? Obviously pitching is a key factor, but which stats are really important to the outcome? Any advice is very much appreciated
Look for hot teams and streaks. If a team is winning, it's possible that they will keep a winning streak.
What I also do is look for dogs that have own big teams in the past because those dogs will have good value in your bet.
As far as stats, they are important but sometimes they can fail because you also need to make sure that the offense is not slumping while the pitching looks perfect. Example, the Phillies lost 2 games with Oswalt and Halladay on the mound against the Diamondbacks this year, I believe. Two top pitchers, but they did not get any run support.
Good luck!
April is a very difficult month to wager. Pitchers tend to have more bad starts in April. Bats start the season slow.
Look at both teams bullpens and see how they've done lately as well as how many innings the bullpens have pitched last 3 games.
Biggest mistake guys make is looking at pitcher vs pitcher. You need to factor starter+bullpen vs lineup. Unless you bet overnight lines wait till lineups are posted.
IMO, betting overnight in baseball to save small juice is just not worth it. You can have a very successful baseball campaign by placing late bets after you get the lineups
My suggestion would be to avoid paying high juice. Set a mark that is the highest amount your willing to pay (-130 is my suggestion) and if the ML is higher than that, then play the -1.5 or -1 RL or vice versa. Also, I like to look at pitchers past performances against certain teams. Example, Gallardo for Milwaukee is their ace, yet the Reds have owned him. In their last match up the Reds were getting +money and by the fourth inning or so had something like a 7-0 lead. IMO, certain pitchers struggle with different teams.
I always chek out the lineup and than place a bet. Also keep an eye out for live lines, sometime u may find something that stands out.
yeah I definitely agree with looking at whos hot whos not. but also check what hitters might be on some streak. Big hitters can carry a team and get the team rolling with the bats
Bet good pitchers on the road
Roy Halloday
Cliff Lee
CC Sabathia
Josh Johnson
Find pitchers that people don't understand yet, guys that look crappy or are very old but are still good. Guys like Livan Hernandez for Washington fit this mold. Old pitcher nobody likes on a crappy team. He will still take down the Phillies and Braves and good teams more than you think.
Also look at home dogs. Even crappy teams could win near 50% of their home games.
Dome teams at home for the right price
Teams that win on the road when the're on the road
Teams that win at home when the're at home
Some people are just a lot more comfortable at home or on the road. Find out who they are and exploit that angle.
just play one underdog a day that you are very confident in.
Good stuff guys. Do any of you have opinions on the bets themselves and what to maybe stay away from? I know people suggest dog moneylines getting value, do any of you like doing over/unders or run lines and also does anyone play the first five innings bets?
just curious... do you use a certain formula for this? thanks.Originally Posted by KC
Stay away from favorite and public teams on weekends. They shade the lines because the betting public comes out. You'll get the best lines on the Yankees, Redsox, Phillies etc. Mon-Fri.
Also watch out for traveling teams. More backups in the lineup the day before travel. Weaker teams at home could beat better road teams the day before they travel because people are resting.
The biggie though is to really try and stay away from public teams on weekends.
Betting baseball? Flip a coin on a game, and hope to get lucky. Honestly.
Find hidden gems on the mound like Tomlin and hammer his starts early in the season before they start adjusting lines; guy has been my best friend this year.
MLB is a value game, juice is your worst enemy.
GL
first go to store and buy a blind money... He will make the best picks
A previous poster mentioned factoring starter+bullpen vs lineup. My question is how do you know what pitcher from the pen will be pitching that day ?
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