[illfuuptn]

I think we're entering a new era in sports betting. For so long it has been said-"underdogs are where the value is at." While I don't totally disagree, I think it has gone too far. It's obviously still moronic to bet the Phillies in almost any spot, but there are many value opportunities to be had with favorites. IMO there's nothing more satisfying than ripping with a -120 team that should be -160. I know this will be a case of tldr if I drag on so I'm going to give an example below and continue on throughout the thread with extended theory/discussion.

For Example(Truly not the best example since it's Yanks/Sox but it still applies imo): The Yankees are currently
-113 on Pinnacle and I know there has been some movement supporting the Red Sox but the Yankees are the play here. People need to get past the whole "home dogs are value" and Beckett and the Sox aren't getting enough respect. The bottom line is that the Yankees should be -140 here and the sportsbooks are far too scared to throw such a "favorable" price the Sox's way.

Let me hear your thoughts. Only intelligent discussion itt okay?

[illfuuptn]

bump to the maximum

[warriorfan707]

Moronic to bet the Phillies in any spot?

You may struggle in sports gambling guy

[iceminers26]

Moronic to bet the Phillies in any spot? You may struggle in sports gambling guy

last guy that should be suggesting another might struggle in sport betting, O's, what was that final: Rangers 13-1 or something like that, almost had that one Bay.

[HoulihansTX]

Funny title

[illfuuptn]

Guys....tell me why you think I'm wrong/right. Don't just say "you're dumb."

[ZetaPsi808]

post a screenshot of your yankee bet before the game

[iceminers26]

Guys....tell me why you think I'm wrong/right. Don't just say "you're dumb."

I personally never stated you were wrong or right, dumb or smart, etc. I somewhat agree with your post but not to the point of your title, "favorites are the new underdog", meaning that I do agree there are some spots weekly throughout the MLB season where the public (call them what you want, larger percentage, boards, etc.) fall in love with a dog, creating value on the suppose favorite. An example IMO took place just yesterday between the Reds and Dbacks, not saying B. Arroyo is a Roy or Cliff, but that line kept dropping and I think by first pitch it was almost down to a pk so Reds' backers got Arroyo and the hot Reds' bats, coming off a loss, against the Dbacks at nearly a pk; Reds won comfortablly.

[illfuuptn]

Why would I lie?

[illfuuptn]

I personally never stated you were wrong or right, dumb or smart, etc. I somewhat agree with your post but not to the point of your title, "favorites are the new underdog", meaning that I do agree there are some spots weekly throughout the MLB season where the public (call them what you want, larger percentage, boards, etc.) fall in love with a dog, creating value on the suppose favorite. An example IMO took place just yesterday between the Reds and Dbacks, not saying B. Arroyo is a Roy or Cliff, but that line kept dropping and I think by first pitch it was almost down to a pk so Reds' backers got Arroyo and the hot Reds' bats, coming off a loss, against the Dbacks at nearly a pk; Reds won comfortablly.

I agree. I don't mean to say that favorites are always the better play. More often than not the underdog has more value, but in this age of increased awareness I think the favorites are often overlooked.

[Inspirited]

You could have bet blindly on HDs so far this year for ROI of 43.8% just based on the lines used in the sportsdatabase. ADs are ROI -1.6%.

[illfuuptn]

You could have bet blindly on HDs so far this year for ROI of 43.8% just based on the lines used in the sportsdatabase. ADs are ROI -1.6%.

Okay you do that. I'm sure it's just a winner. No rhyme or reason. Home dogs just win. Okay. Good job.

[ZetaPsi808]

Why would I lie?

ok good luck guy

[JW Cash]

Good luck on all your favorite baseball plays in the future...

[Inspirited]

Okay you do that. I'm sure it's just a winner. No rhyme or reason. Home dogs just win. Okay. Good job.

hey, you're not arguing with me. that's just what has happened so far this april. and it has been profitable 5 of the last 7 years in april. I'm not exactly sure why dogs have done well in april over the years, but i know that your theory that favorites are the new dog does not seem to be very well supported.

[Inspirited]

and for the record, i agree with you about the yankees being undervalued here.

[cigar]

sunday night baseball has been owned by home teams whether dogs or favorites no matter, doubt it changes tonight, Red Sox are the play

[illfuuptn]

sunday night baseball has been owned by home teams whether dogs or favorites no matter, doubt it changes tonight, Red Sox are the play

So you're on the Red Sox tonight because home teams magically win on Sunday night baseball? Good one bro.

[shaq diesel 75]

I do feel like you never winning as much +money as you should on the underdogs as you should, it seems like back in the day there were always 2 to 1 favs out there. Now it seems like the books are afraid to lay it out there cause they know guys will take the 2 to 1 dog. Which leads me to believe that more people are taking dogs nowadays than 10 or 15 years ago.

[cigar]

you can call it magic if you want, that much domination is defintiely not luck.......

[warriorfan707]

Favorites are not the underdoggie what kind of nonsense is this

[cigar]

Its a square wrestling with his mind... When he learns to react instead of think he'll see magic

[jorge1]

You said open for discussion so here goes my take:

First let me say that I'm a plus money type guy. So far this year I average +120 line price. However I gotta say that anyone that says that value is on dogs is generalizing. Value is where there is an edge. The edge is used long term! Not just on a one game basis. So if there is value on a fave then there is value! And u bet it.

I think that the best thing is to pick games that are from -130 to plus money. Once u get into -150or higher u gotta win a high percentage to cut profit.

Its good to look for good dogs or cheap faves. That's pretty much it. For example why not bet on nyy when they are -110 but bet them when they are -160? Obviously they should b in different situations at each given price but if I know they r good then I bet them cheaper rather than bet them more expensive.

Like example. Tomorrow texas is underdiog to detroit. To me the is definite value betting texas agasints anyone at. Plus value. But what is a value play on verlander? -145 or so seems to be a fair price for him against any team. But agaisnt texsas? It should be -120 or so. Then I'd think the edge is on det side.

So yeah. Bottom line favorites have value when in the right spot. But to me its never a good ide to be in the - money. It makes me money to bet + money everyday.

[illfuuptn]

You said open for discussion so here goes my take:

First let me say that I'm a plus money type guy. So far this year I average +120 line price. However I gotta say that anyone that says that value is on dogs is generalizing. Value is where there is an edge. The edge is used long term! Not just on a one game basis. So if there is value on a fave then there is value! And u bet it.

I think that the best thing is to pick games that are from -130 to plus money. Once u get into -150or higher u gotta win a high percentage to cut profit.

Its good to look for good dogs or cheap faves. That's pretty much it. For example why not bet on nyy when they are -110 but bet them when they are -160? Obviously they should b in different situations at each given price but if I know they r good then I bet them cheaper rather than bet them more expensive.

Like example. Tomorrow texas is underdiog to detroit. To me the is definite value betting texas agasints anyone at. Plus value. But what is a value play on verlander? -145 or so seems to be a fair price for him against any team. But agaisnt texsas? It should be -120 or so. Then I'd think the edge is on det side.

So yeah. Bottom line favorites have value when in the right spot. But to me its never a good ide to be in the - money. It makes me money to bet + money everyday.

Thank you for the intelligent post. I think people got the wrong idea fro my thread and it's understandable. I too bet mostly on underdogs. But, unlike many plastic sharps, I'm not afraid to bet a favorite because I think it has value. Personally I think I'd take detroit in tomorrow's game against Texas. That's a typical spot where I think people lose focus. They think Texas at +money is just a total gift, but in reality Texas is an overrated team with bad pitching. I feel like that's a spot where the books know they can handle a lot of action on Texas because they have a good, true line. I could be wrong but it's just my opinion.

[Hoja Verdes]

Its a square wrestling with his mind... When he learns to react instead of think he'll see magic

Yep, you nailed it. Gotta learn to your inner square in its cage and only let it out to bet betpoints.

[Whippit]

Unders are the new Overs

[ZetaPsi808]

[ZetaPsi808]

[BettingWizard]

I think it's just a lot easier for people to find in value in dogs

you think a team will win , and you see the + sign. Easy bet to make.

you think a team will win and you see -150? Usually a lay-off game.

[illfuuptn]

I think it's just a lot easier for people to find in value in dogs

you think a team will win , and you see the + sign. Easy bet to make.

you think a team will win and you see -150? Usually a lay-off game.

That's a good point

[Hoja Verdes]

I think it's just a lot easier for people to find in value in dogs

you think a team will win , and you see the + sign. Easy bet to make.

you think a team will win and you see -150? Usually a lay-off game.

Yep, pretty much sums it up.

[HoulihansTX]

Wins are the new losses.

[nobodyukno]

Wins are the new losses.