NBA Draft Over/Under Player Picks: Odds, Payouts for Most Likely Scenarios

The NBA draft begins on Thursday, and there are still plenty of questions about where the top prospects will fall. Let's examine how the first round could play out with our NBA draft Over/Under player picks.

The theme of this year’s NBA draft is uncertainty. Who will be selected with the first two picks? What will the Sacramento Kings, Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers, and New York Knicks do on draft night? Whose stock will rise and fall the most prior to Thursday’s main event?

With so many question marks from top to bottom, we can get some great value on player props for the big night.

Let's take a look at the top NBA draft Over/Under player picks (odds via X and Y).

NBA Draft Over/Under Player Picks

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NBA Draft Over/Under Player Breakdowns

AJ Griffin: Under 11.5 (Caesars +115, FanDuel +112)

Griffin’s line is set at 10.5 through DraftKings and PointsBet. Caesars and FanDuel offer better value at 11.5.

Many view the sharpshooter from Duke as a top-10 selection at best and a late lottery pick at worst. Take the line movement value and get some juicy plus-money action.

Dyson Daniels: Over 6.5 (-275 via PointsBet), Over 7.5 (+160 via DraftKings)

The first three picks are pretty much set with Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren, and Paolo Banchero in some order. Jaden Ivey and Keegan Murray will be next, then the group of Shaedon Sharpe, Benn Mathurin, and Daniels.

That means there are at least five players likely to go before Daniels, with probably two more vying for the sixth spot in the draft. Using PointsBet to take the safer line of 6.5 is wise, but you can get a little action on his appealing 7.5 line through DraftKings, which offers plus money for moving up just one spot.

Jalen Duren: Under 10.5 (Caesars -135, PointsBet -115, DraftKings -110, FanDuel -108)

The big boy out of Memphis used size, strength, and athleticism to dominate and become the ACC's Rookie of the Year last season, and NBA general managers will highly covet his skills.

San Antonio needs some frontcourt depth and a future replacement for Jakob Poeltl, so Duren makes sense at No. 9. The Thunder might try to move up from No. 12, and the rebuilding Trail Blazers at No. 7 would also be a good trade partner. Will Oklahoma aggressively seek some much-needed help up front?

https://twitter.com/johnewing/status/1538884378603900933

Johnny Davis: Over 10.5 (FanDuel -102), Under 10.5 (+200 DraftKings)

The odds on Davis’ Over cashing were listed at plus money earlier in the week, but that price has risen to -102 through FanDuel. His Under odds can be found at +200 through DraftKings, meaning the books are leaning toward him going at No. 11 or later.

Davis isn’t likely to be drafted before guys like Mathurin, Daniels, or even Sharpe. There are also other better top-10 candidates like Duren, Griffin, and Jeremy Sochan. It will be difficult for the Under on Davis to cash, so take the Over while there's still good value.

Keegan Murray: Under 5.5 (Caesars -190, DraftKings -175)

Will the Kings take Ivey at No. 4? Will they trade the pick to the highest bidder? Or will owner Vivek Ranadive put his foot down and draft Keegan Murray?

There are questions tied to Sacramento, but all of that won't matter for this prop. If the Kings take Ivey or trade the pick to a team that will, Murray is the most likely selection at No. 5. Or Sacramento taking Murray at No. 4 is also very possible. There aren’t many realistic scenarios that feature him falling out of the top five.

https://twitter.com/JandersonSacBee/status/1537472083860434944

Mark Williams: Under 13.5 (FanDuel +132, Caesars +150)

Conveniently, the Hornets pick at No. 13, so hammer the Under here. Charlotte is rumored to be a suitor for Williams, as are the Knicks (No. 11) and Wizards (No. 10).

The Spurs could take him over Duren at No. 9. There’s a lot of smoke tied to Williams’ draft position, and where there’s smoke, there’s fire. This is one of my favorite value picks for draft night, especially at plus-money odds on both sites.

Ochai Agbaji: Over 13.5 (Caesars -130, FanDuel -122), Over 14.5 (+145 DraftKings), Under 14.5 (-175 DraftKings)

Agbaji will probably be selected in the 10-18 range, but the most likely scenario is No. 14 or later. That would result in value plays through Caesars and FanDuel, which have set the line at a friendly 13.5, making the Under a safe selection.

Taking the Under at DraftKings leads to the opportunity to win on the Over at 13.5 and the Under at 14.5 if Cleveland selects Agbaji at No. 14. The Cavaliers have been a rumored destination.

Where to Bet on 2022 NBA Draft Over/Under Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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NBA Draft Over/Under picks made on 6/21/2022 at 11:05 p.m. ET.