The available MLB odds for home run props across our best sports betting apps continue to reward bettors who price shop. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has checked in on the market and offers his top MLB home run prop picks for Friday.
Looking to see some dingers on Friday? Cash-in on the best opportunities presented by Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos and Texas Rangers third baseman Josh Jung.
Here are our top MLB home run prop picks for Friday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday’s MLB home run props
- Nick Castellanos Over 0.5 home runs (+500 via BetMGM) ⭐
- Josh Jung Over 0.5 home runs (+500 via DraftKings) ⭐
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Friday’s MLB home run prop picks
Nick Castellanos Over 0.5 home runs (+500 via BetMGM) ⭐
Colorado Rockies lefty starter Austin Gomber has surrendered a 1.7 HR/9 with a 35.1% hard-hit rate to right-handed hitters at Coors Field since joining the team in 2021, so I like this matchup for Castellanos.
Castellanos' down 2022 campaign skews his numbers, but the vet has a long track record of success against lefties, including posting a .257 ISO and 42.3% hard-hit rate from 2015 through 2021. He’s also off to a solid start this year with respective .229 and 34.6 marks.
Castellanos is also locked in at the dish with five bombs and a 1.058 OPS across his past 16 games.
|+475||+340 ❄️||+500 🔥||+480||+475|
We’re landing a decent edge shopping across our best sports betting sites, too. The difference in the +500 available through BetMGM compared to the +350 FanDuel is listing checks out as a positive expected value of 33% and an additional $15 return on a winning $10 ticket.
If you’re looking for another market to take advantage of the favorable matchup for Castellanos, he’s priced at +140 to go Over 1.5 hits through both BetMGM and DraftKings.
Check out our MLB home run leader odds.
Josh Jung Over 0.5 home runs (+500 via DraftKings) ⭐
The emerging masher has a monster .366 ISO and 48.0% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitchers during his short career, and seven of his 13 homers in the bigs have come against southpaws in less than half the plate appearances he has against righties.
I also value the potential for positive regression given his current 5-for-30 stretch with a single extra-base hit across the past seven games.
Oakland Athletics starter Ken Waldichuk has been a pitching machine for righty bats to tee off on since entering the majors, too. His 2.56 HR/9 and 19.5 HR/FB rates are eye sores, and he’s allowed five bombs across his past three starts.
|+500 🔥||+360 ❄️||N/A||+400||+475|
We’re landing a similar edge with the available odds, and Jung is also trading at +125 to go Over 1.5 total bases through DraftKings, if you’re looking for a complementary or pivot play.
MLB home run prop picks made 5/12/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
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