[bababooey13]

When did JC118 turn into a douchey ass troll? Did I miss something?

[Marillion]

Bosnia's coach has said they'll play very aggressively in every match regardless of the opponent.

[frugalgambler]

Good call on Flopez, too bad he flopped on the MP and then up 4-2 in the 3rd set. Swiss however look pretty bad early on. Just no quality on offense. Not that Ecuador is much better but they are up 1-0.

[kenz]

Good call on Sousa, very easy win

[Honeybadger44]

Bosnia's coach has said they'll play very aggressively in every match regardless of the opponent.

They all say that before the game

Good call on Flopez, too bad he flopped on the MP and then up 4-2 in the 3rd set. Swiss however look pretty bad early on. Just no quality on offense. Not that Ecuador is much better but they are up 1-0.

Yeah, I had little bit on ML as well. Too bad he couldn't get it done. But, the main thing was that he cover the spread.

Swiss have quality on offense, but they look compeltely disconnected at the moment. They are not fluid enough in the passing game, to get through Ecuadorian defense. They seem very tensed, so I hope their coach will find way to calm them down a bit in the half time. But yeah, so far, they didn't look good at all.

Good call on Sousa, very easy win

Thanks man!

[Honeybadger44]

Fu** 5 units. I am genuinly sad for Ecuador. Switzerland didn't deserve this one.

[NguyenImproved]

Fu** 5 units. I am genuinly sad for Ecuador. Switzerland didn't deserve this one.

Haha. High FIVE.

I loved seeing you pull that one outta the oven!!

[frugalgambler]

Swiss boys came through. Woo-hoo.

[Hardcoar]

Fu** 5 units. I am genuinly sad for Ecuador. Switzerland didn't deserve this one.

Didnt catch it. Could you sum shit up for me please?

[Honeybadger44]

Feliciano Lopez -4 @1.86 Pinnacle - 2 units
Schmiedlova +3,5 @2.01 Pinnacle - 2 units
Sijsling +2,5 @1.96 Pinnacle - 2 units
Roger Vaselin + Watson Parlay @2.02 Pinnacle - 2 units
Anderson/Evans over 22,5 @1.87 - 2 units
Evans ML @3.83 - 1 unit
Vandeweghe ML @1.87 Pinnacle - 2 units
Hantuchova +2,5 @1.87 Pinnacle - 5 units
Kudla +3 @1.99 Pinnacle - 2 units
Tursunov 2-0 @2.11 Pinnacle - 2 units
Flipkens ML @2.01 Pinnacle - 2 units
Roger Vaselin +2,5 @2.01 Pinnacle - 3 units
Wawrinka -2 @1.88 Pinnacle - 2 units
Mega Vizura +5,5 Pinnacle @2.00 - 4 units
Zahlavova Strycova ML @1.79 Pinnacle - 2 units
Riske +2,5 @1.85 Pinnacle - 2 units
De Schepper +3 @1.80 Pinnacle - 3 units
De Schepper ML @3.21 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Kimiko Date-Krumm @3.39 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Lu ML @3.64 Pinnacle - 2 units
Flipkens -2,5 @1.88 Pinnacle - 3 units
Brazil-Croatia draw @5.64 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Brown ML @4.00 Pinnacle - 2 units
Dellacqua -3 @1.83 Pinnacle - 3 units
Nishikori -4 @2.02 Pinnacle - 2 units
Berdych -2,5 @1.95 Pinnacle - 3 units
Federer/Lu over 20,5 @1.84 Pinnacle - 2 units
Mexico-Cameroon over 2 @1.94 Pinnacle - 2 units
Mexico to win @2.22 Pinnacle - 2 units
Chile -1 (AH) @1.91 Pinnacle - 2 units
Jaksic ML @2.16 Pinnacle - 2 units
Dellacqua -3,5 @1.83 Pinnacle - 3 units
Ormaechea ML @3.32 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Lopez +2,5 @1.97 Pinnacle - 3 units
Sousa ML @1.87 Pinnacle - 2 units
Switzerland - 0,25 (AH) @2.07 Pinnacle - 5 units


Record 57-51-5
Hit rate: 50,44%
Staked: 299u
Yield: +33.42u
ROI: +11,18%


Nice bounce back, after that rough period. Over 17 units of profit in past week.

[Honeybadger44]

Didnt catch it. Could you sum shit up for me please?

very unconvincing performance by Switzerland. They scored an equaliser at the begining of the second half, had another scoring chance, or two after that. But when they had to do the final push for the win, in the last 20 minutes, they were nowhere to be found. They especially struggled to capitalise on their ball possesion and transform it into solid goal chances.
Ecuador was a constant threat from the counter-attacks. They had a scoring opportunity in the last minute, they didn't execute and got punished on the other side.
Switzerland was probably the better team, but played far below the expectations. Ecuador showed some heart on the other side, and that is why I felt they didn't deserve to concede a goal in the last seconds of the game.

[Hardcoar]

Tyvm!

[NguyenImproved]

To me Ecuador never looked like scoring after the opener.

The last minute illustrates the point. Dude gets a gilt-edged opportunity in the square after lovely cross to isolate him and the keeper. What does he do? He tries to get five touches in to square up instead of shooting. With 100 defenders looming down on his arse.

Ready. Aim. AIM.


8 seconds later Siwss duly meted out the summary punishment.
Swift Justice. (Or is that Swiss Justice)



I could hear the sound of HoneyBadger ejaculating from here in Vietnam.

No matter what he says about feeling 'sorry' for the losers.
5 units is 5 units.

Show those South Americans the f#ckin' Ecua-DOOR.

[frugalgambler]

Nice day today ! You seem to know more about WC soccer than all the posters in the soccer forum combined. I was wondering what you thought about the games tomorrow. My early leans are on 0-0 POR-GER 1H, USA pk, and Iran +0.5. I just think the African teams are not that great this year, maybe with the exception of Ivory Coast and Algeria. And I expect Portugal and Germany to start with a caution, although betting on an under right now seems like a bad bad move. But I gotta admit I do not know much about these teams, especially I have not much of a clue about Nigeria, Iran and Ghana.

[NguyenImproved]

Nice day today ! You seem to know more about WC soccer than all the posters in the soccer forum combined. I was wondering what you thought about the games tomorrow. My early leans are on 0-0 POR-GER 1H, USA pk, and Iran +0.5. I just think the African teams are not that great this year, maybe with the exception of Ivory Coast and Algeria. And I expect Portugal and Germany to start with a caution, although betting on an under right now seems like a bad bad move. But I gotta admit I do not know much about these teams, especially I have not much of a clue about Nigeria, Iran and Ghana.

It's generally not the correct line of thought as each match is an independent event..
But I'm thinking a DRAW or and UNDERS result must surely be just around the horizon.

Portugal-Germany looks the ideal candidate.
They seem evenly matched although Germany is my pick to win the whole thing.

Ghana-USA is also a great chance of a bore draw.

[Honeybadger44]

Davis ML @2.32 Pinnacle - 2 units
Pliskova draw attention in Nurnberg, few weeks ago, where she punched her way to the finals, with some heavy hitting. Looking at here game, you must assume that she should do well on fast surfaces, with big serve and good ball striking. Still, I see some of the flaws in her game, which can be exposed on grass courts. Her movement is pretty poor. If opponent find a way to make her run around, it is on a very good way, to win it. Also, Pliskova likes the higher bounces, where she can stand tall and hammer down winners with her forehand. I am not so sure about her ability to bend her knees and get down for the shots and also hitting them on the run, because she will have to do that on grass.
Lauren Davis very often underrated, like in this case. Value with the "dog".

[Honeybadger44]

To me Ecuador never looked like scoring after the opener.

The last minute illustrates the point. Dude gets a gilt-edged opportunity in the square after lovely cross to isolate him and the keeper. What does he do? He tries to get five touches in to square up instead of shooting. With 100 defenders looming down on his arse.

Ready. Aim. AIM.


8 seconds later Siwss duly meted out the summary punishment.
Swift Justice. (Or is that Swiss Justice)



I could hear the sound of HoneyBadger ejaculating from here in Vietnam.

No matter what he says about feeling 'sorry' for the losers.
5 units is 5 units.

Show those South Americans the f#ckin' Ecua-DOOR.

It seems we saw the game bit differently . I really think that despite Switzerland dominated with ball posession, Ecuador was at least equally dangerous to score. Those three wingers (Valencia x2 and Montero) are damn fast and they were a constant threat from the counter-attacks. Imagine what could happen, if Djouru wouldn't tackle Valencia when he broke away, just about to recieve that through ball into space, and only goalie left to beat... Well, it doesn't matter anymore now, game is over. Moving on to the next bets.

And regarding my feelings at the end of the game. Belive it or not, I didn't jump up an down, celebrating the win. I believe that those lucky/unlucky wins/losses levels each other out, in the long run. So, I will probably give that one back, with some sick sh**, which is going to happen to me, probably in some WTA match

@frugalgambler

Thanks! I am going to write my thoughts about world cup games, little bit later, after I finish capping the tennis matches.

[Honeybadger44]

Kirilenko +4 @1.93 Pinnacle - 2 units
I feel that Kirilenko is being undervalued here, because of her rare appearances on the tour. She often has some injury problems, so we don't have much opportunity to see her pretty face. But don't make mistake about it, this girl can play. And I think that grass is probably her favorite surface. She has the serve, flat shots from the baseline and is comfortable at the net. +4 for is too big of a line.

Evans +2 @1.84 Pinnacle - 2 units
I don't really understand these odds. I really like Evans on grass, because he has the game for this surface and I feel that he has the edge, over the competitors, which are somewhere close to him, in terms of quality. Kamke is one of them, imho.

Peng + 3,5 @1.86 Pinnacle - 2 units
Not always a smart move, to go against the defending champion in the first round, but I can't help myself. I simply feel that the value is there. Peng is a very tricky player to play on grass. She serves well. She takes the ball on the rise, with her groundstrokes and simply has the game, which suits this surface well. I see this match pretty evened up. Vesnina is favored this much, becuase she is defending champion.

Klahn ML @5.40 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Dimitry Tursunov is a guy, who can go from his best, to his absolute worst, in just couple of days. Tanking a match, week before Wimbledon? Why not.

[Honeybadger44]

Klizan + Ante Pavic (parlay) @2.05 Pinnacle - 3 units
Delbonis playing under expectations this season + he doesn't know how to play on faster surfaces. Parlaying it with Pavic in Wimbledon qualifiers, ebcause he has the game, which suits the grass courts, much better, then Dzumnhur.

Granollers ML @2.16 Pinnacle - 2 units
Yeah, yeah. Becker having a big serve and all. But I think that the odds are not set the right way. Granollers was more of a clay courter in past, but with all the experiance, which he got, playing the doubles, week in and week out, he should do fine on grass. His serve is good. With a lot of variation, where opponents has to keep guessing, what is Granollers next move. He can serve&volley and has a great touch at the net. I feel that there is some value with him in this spot.

Garcia +3 @1.93 Pinnacle - 2 units
Fadeing Stephens, after the dissapointing performance, in the semis of Birmingham. She might just tank this one and move on to Wimbledon. She had enough matches on grass now, and I don't believe she has any ambition to go far int this tournament. Not to mention that Garcia is a tough opponent.

[Honeybadger44]

Nice day today ! You seem to know more about WC soccer than all the posters in the soccer forum combined. I was wondering what you thought about the games tomorrow. My early leans are on 0-0 POR-GER 1H, USA pk, and Iran +0.5. I just think the African teams are not that great this year, maybe with the exception of Ivory Coast and Algeria. And I expect Portugal and Germany to start with a caution, although betting on an under right now seems like a bad bad move. But I gotta admit I do not know much about these teams, especially I have not much of a clue about Nigeria, Iran and Ghana.

It is really difficult to choose the side in Germany-Portugal game. Both teams are just so good. I like your idea, about the cautious approach, because neither of these two teams wants to lose this one, and put pressure on themselves for the next two games. That being said, I kinda lean towards the draw, like in the England-Italy game.
Portugal ont he spread, might be worth of a look as well. Whole thing about them being one man band, is a BS, imho. Yes, Ronaldo is a great player, but they are loaded with talent in other positions as well. If I am going to make a bet on this one, I will wait for announcing of the starting 11. There are news that Germany struggles with injuries. So, for example, if Schweinsteiger will not be ready and their coach deicide to put Lahm from DR to defensive midfielder (instead giving the nod to Kroos), then you will have Lahm, playing out of his position in midfield (meaning someone else will have to match up against Ronaldo), alongside Khedira, who was injured, for most of the season. That makes complete mess in the midfield and could be deciding thing in such a close game. Also, read some rumours about Ozil playing a "false 9". If coach Low decides to do that, he will overcomplicate his case, which will probably cost him 3 points in the end. He looks like a guy, who could be too smart for his own good. If he wants to do that, he can be my guest. I will be waiting...
And about your idea of 1H 0-0 score. It might hit, but considering the talent, on both teams, up front, I wouldn't dare...

I like Iran +0,5 as well. I don't know much about that team to be honest, but I just don't see Nigeria as an african force, which they once was. They have bunch of solid forwards, but you can use only 2 in the match. While at other positions, they are pretty questionable (expect Obi Mikel in central midfield). Iran is probably going to look to try to keep Nigeria scoreless and they might succeed. under might be worth of a look as well.

Ghana-Usa is another very tough one to call. Looking at how the group looks, draw wouldn't do much for either of these teams. So, I am guessing that they will try to get a win, no matter what. That obviously mean more attacking approach and lean towards the over.
When you have a such a close matchup, usually a brilliant move from certain individual, decides the winner. Because I have major respect for Clint Dempsey, I say he might be the one, to put this one in the bag for his team. Ghana does have some big names on their team, but they are well past their prime. I see USA as a more team-play oriented and usualy I lean to such teams. But, I am definitely not making a play on the side, for this match. It is just too close. Good luck!

[Hardcoar]

Peng @ 2.7 and Evans @ 2.55 both seem high to me.

Peng just won Roland Garros so she couldn't've been that whoreshit, plus Vesnina is always a good fade. What's not to like at these odds besides bitches defending??

[Honeybadger44]

Peng @ 2.7 and Evans @ 2.55 both seem high to me.

Peng just won Roland Garros so she couldn't've been that whoreshit, plus Vesnina is always a good fade. What's not to like at these odds besides bitches defending??

I can understand the odds for Peng. She was not that great in singles lately + Vesnina is a defending champion. But Evans is suspiciously high, to me.

[Hardcoar]

I agree there's more "reason" to Peng's odds. I just mean I find both high at the given values. Obviously you agree personally to some extent. In my opinion it's a July-miracle that Vesnina ever won anything in her life.

[Hardcoar]

Evans absolute whoreshit. Kamke rock solid. Tough shit. -7.5 was the obvious pick after all.

Cepelova line seems very trappy.

[Honeybadger44]

Evans absolute whoreshit. Kamke rock solid. Tough shit. -7.5 was the obvious pick after all.

Cepelova line seems very trappy.

Yeah, Kamke impressive today. Commited very few errors and ran down pretty much every single shot, which Evans threw at him.

[Hardcoar]

Bitches f*cking bitches up... what else is new??

[Hardcoar]

First bitch to hold loses. This is the WTA after all.

[frugalgambler]

Thanks for taking the time to respond to my soccer questions with detailed writeups. There have been no 0-0 first halves at this WC, which is crazy. I feel like Germany-Portugal and Iran-Nigeria are excellent matches to break that spell. In the first one, I think both teams will be very cautious early on, while in the second one Iran will probably park the bus and Nigeria does not seem to have real talent up front. Also, liking the over in the USA-Ghana match. Let's see how it goes.

[frugalgambler]

LOL. Another early PK. That one was probably deserved. I dunno if it is the air in Brazil or what, but even the best defenses look like Jamaica's defensive line.

[frugalgambler]

Hey man. I am going to take some more space in your thread, if you do not mind (if you do, let me know). I appreciate your soccer writeups and I wanted to bounce some ideas off you.

Brazil-Mexico. I was surprised to see the line so low for Brazil. Yeah, Mexico looked decent against Cameroon, but Cameroon is probably the bottom three team this year, along with Nigeria and Iran. And Mexico did not really dominate that game. Brazil got their first important win against a tricky opp and I expect them to win by 2+ goals in a more relaxed manner. It would also help if Hulk is injured and will not play. So I like Brazil -1/-1.5.

I have looked into Group H quite a bit because I follow the Russian league pretty closely and I already have a decent-sized futures bets on Belgium to win the group. I also think that Korea might finish last and Algeria might possibly produce a surprise and qualify. The Russian squad is made only of players from the domestic league and so far none of the "star" players from that league looked that great on other squads (Noboa, Musa, Emmenike, Hulk, a couple of Portugese, etc.). On the other hand, Korea looked very hapless just before the WC. They run fast and are pretty athletic, but they lack finesse to score. Russians lost their best offensive midfielder and they have no great strikers on the team (just like Korea). So I am leaning under2/2.5 and 0-0 1H for Russia-Korea. I think both teams will play a defense first game and will struggle to score.

Belgium-Algeria: Belgium is loaded with talent although they lack the big-stage experience (just like Brazil). On the other hand, Algeria has a pretty decent roster, seems to like attacking and it looks like they can score. I am liking o2.5 in that one.

I hope you'll have time to share your opinion. GL with your picks.

[Honeybadger44]

Lepchenko +3,5 @1.91 Pinnacle - 2 units
With Zhang reaching semis last week in Birmingham, she instantly became overvalued imho. Imagine, not factoring in, that result. I believe that in such case, Lepchenko would be the favorite. That being said, these odds are overreaction to the results from last week. Value with the underdog.

Duque Marino ML @4.33 Pinnacle - 2 units
I have a hunch that this south american, should do just fine on grass, and should not be such an underdog. She has very good serve and good ball striking.

Giraldo ML @2.04 Pinnacle - 2 units
Nieminen did play well, last week in Queen's club. But, he got injured as well. He started to train at 100% just recently. Worrying about recent injury, on a slippery grass, less then a week before Wimbledon, could be a serious distraction.

[Honeybadger44]

@frugalgambler

We have identical thoughts, on how will things end up in group H. Belgium is too strong. South Korea doesn't seem to have quality, like in previous world cups. Russian are their own worst enemy. They have some decent players, but I expect them to shoot themselves in the foot, somewhere. So, Algeria might sneek into the second place. I've seen them play in African cup of nations, last year and they played some good football. So, Belgium, Algeria, Russia and South Korea is my prediciton.
Speaking of today's games... Belgium has a mean squad, on paper. World class players, on every single position, except those full-backs, where they will put probabyl some centre-backs, which will play out of there position. Vertonghen or Vermaelen are predicted to start on the left side. That might not sound like a big deal, but it could make quite a difference. That position is not very easy to play. If you have great players there, you cna provide a very good support to your attack. But, if there play guys, who are naturally centre-backs, I don't know how much can they help on offense. Also, centre-backs are not used of playing in space, running around, chasing quick opponent's wingers... Also, Belgium has world class team, but zero experiance in such competitions. That is an important factor, to consider
That all being said, value is definitely with Algeria, at these odds. I am just little bit worried about them being too attacking minded. Because, against a team, which have Hazard, Mirallas and Lukaku, threatening from counter-attacks, there is no room for mistakes. But, since they have very experianced coach, they should be fine, in terms of tactical discipline. Also, slight lean to the over, but not too excited about this line, which is at 2.75 at the moment.

Russia-South Korea. I don't think that this is the game, where Russia will shoot themselves in the foot, but also, I am definitely not trusting them enough, to back them at these odds. I would lean toward the under as well. South Korea lacks talent, while Akinfeev is pretty solid, between the posts. On the other side, Russia also doesn't have great strikers. Kerzakov is their option for almost a century now. Him and Gekas seems like competing, who is going to play longer for their national teams. Combined, they are like 500 years old, now...

Brazil-Mexico. I can see you leaning toward Brazil covering the spread. I disagree there. It is not that low, for no reason. This Brazilian team is not build, to play their traditional football. It is built in Scolari's way, to have tactical discipline, strong defense and to win tournaments like this one. Even if the price is to play boring. Think about this. They scored 3 goals in the opener. How where they scored? One from he penalty. Other one from the shot 25 meters away, and the third one, after a obvious foul in the midfield, quick counter and not good reaction from Pletikosa. Those were not very well built attacks, imho. And how many good opportunities to score, did they have beside those goals? Not many. AT least I don't remember them.
On the other side, Mexico was way better then Cameroon. But they looked way better then they really are, imho. Cameroon didn't put any pressure on their passing game, and they were able to do whatever they want with the ball. That will not be possible in this game and I didn't see enough qulity up front, that they could make their way, through that tough defensive midfield and defense, which Brazil has.
I think that under/over line is too high. under 3 is my play here and a prediction 1-0 for the correct score. Good luck!

[Honeybadger44]

Brazil/Mexico under 3 @1.79 Pinnacle - 3 units
As I wrote above, this line is way too high. This Brazilian team is not built to play attractive football and score bunch of goals, but to get the job done, at any cost. Mexico will probably have their little finals against Croatia in next round, which should decide, who is getting the spot in next phase. It would be crucial to get some kind of adventage over Croatia before that game, so 1 point from this game, would be huge. They will probably park the bus and do everything defensively to keep their net untouched. Can they succeed? I am not sure, but I definitely don't give them much chances to scre themselves. Correct score 1-0, or 2-0.

[frugalgambler]

Thanks for the reply. We seem to agree on most points, just a couple of thoughts. I think Croatia played really well in the opening match while Cameroon did not really test Mexican defense, which therefore appears more solid than it is. In short, I am still liking Brazil to win by 2+ goals. Hulk might not start which should improve Brazil's chances. But, I might put a little on 0-0 1H, just in case the Mexican bus proves to be more solid than I think. As for Russia, I do not think Kerzh will be starting today. I think Kokorin will be their starting option, he is a bit more talented than Kerzh but still he is not a world-class scorer.

[frugalgambler]

Also, I am seeing Spain to qualify @-110, and I think those are good odds. All they have to do it beat Chile and expect Holland not to lose to Chile. I think that will happen with more than 55% probability. Portugal is +110 which is also a nice line I think.