[kenz]

$150 on Kubot - Lajovic over 39 @1.80

+$120

[Marillion]

Hey Kenz, good luck, this is going to be a bit berating but I just wanted to share my thoughts.

I really hate the Nadal play, I think going against him on Wimbledon (both in first round and now... and maybe in future rounds if he wins today) is +EV.

I've been reading this forum for a few months now and in my opinion, maybe the most common mistake bettors make are building their reasoning on psychological stuff like "This player is going to be motivated/desperate to win", "That player is going to be scared" and stuff like that.

Anyway, I do believe chances that Rafa will turn this match the other way round are pretty good, he was OK versus Klizan and Rosol is a bit of a nutcase.

[kenz]

$400 on 3-0 Rosol @5.50

Bought this at 2-2 0-30 Nadal serving @2nd set

[kenz]

$50 on Bolelli +2.5 sets @1.95
$50 on Bolelli - Kohlschreibber over 35 @1.85
$50 on Bolelli - Kohli tiebreak @1.64

+$47,50
+$42,50
-$50
=+$40

[kenz]

Hey Kenz, good luck, this is going to be a bit berating but I just wanted to share my thoughts.

I really hate the Nadal play, I think going against him on Wimbledon (both in first round and now... and maybe in future rounds if he wins today) is +EV.

I've been reading this forum for a few months now and in my opinion, maybe the most common mistake bettors make are building their reasoning on psychological stuff like "This player is going to be motivated/desperate to win", "That player is going to be scared" and stuff like that.

Anyway, I do believe chances that Rafa will turn this match the other way round are pretty good, he was OK versus Klizan and Rosol is a bit of a nutcase.

Could not disagree with that

[kenz]

Wish I did not watch that shitfest. This is how Rosol loses a set. Hope Nadal does not lose this.

[kenz]

$1500 on Fognini ML @1.23 * Dimitrov ML @1.32 marathonbet = @1.722

[kenz]

$1500 on Nadal @1.11 * Feliciano Lopez @1.18 * Kei Nishikori @1.10 * Denis Istomin @1.23= @1.77 @Tempobet

Nadal = Revenge at all costs, cant afford to lose to Rosol here again
Feliciano Lopez = Great on grass, master of tiebreaks
Kei = Fade Kudla who barely beat Marsel
Istomin = Fade Reister who is a scrub + Istomin having his best season

Lopez is my biggest concern here, to be honest. But he should win

+$1155

[kenz]

$400 on 3-0 Rosol @5.50

Bought this at 2-2 0-30 Nadal serving @2nd set

-$400

[kenz]

$100 on Mannarino +2.5 games @1.78

-$100

[kenz]

Day Total: +$120 + $40 + $1155 - $400 - $100 = +$815

Total: +9,195.95

[karpo13]

Anything for byrdych cilic or cibulkova safarova?

[kenz]

Thinking about Cilic +1.5 sets @1.99 or +3.5 games @1.80. Women I have no idea

[kenz]

$600 on Cilic +1.5 sets @1.99 * Dimitrov ML @1.32 = @2.63

[zec]

$600 on Cilic +2.5 sets @1.99

Surely +1.5 sets?

[kenz]

Surely +1.5 sets?

Yeah +1.5 sets. Also decided to parlay with Dimitrov ML so If this parlay hits I will have a slight positive day

[Nick_685]

$1000 on Kevin Anderson @1.39 * Grigor Dimitrov @1.37 = @1.90

$1500 on Fognini ML @1.23 * Dimitrov ML @1.32 marathonbet = @1.722

Hello Kenz. Why did you do that?

[kenz]

Watched the game Kev looked helpless, cant run, got a massage, cant win long rallies, going to net and losing all those net points, cant hold when down 0-30, got broken 3/3 in first occasions. So when it was 15-40 on his serve on 4th set I thought Fogna cant lose.

WHen I watch shit happens at times. Now I need Dimi and Cilic to save me from shithole, too bad just could be an awesome day.

[kenz]

Whoa WTF with Dolgopolov's stats? Either wrong or Dolgo is actually an X-Men

His scorelines are close but his stats are sick.

Against Groth 50 winners 9 unforced errors
Against Becker 84 winners 29 unforced errors + 42 aces

However I watched their Basel indoor clash last year and Dimitrov was a notch above in quality. Still he is the better guy, hope he does not choke

Now I get it

[kenz]

[kenz]

Now come on Ciliccccccccccc!!!

[Simon Gruber]

He needs a coaching presence at his matches. He has the killer instinct of a dolphin. One of the biggest chokers ever

[kenz]

$1000 on Kevin Anderson @1.39 * Grigor Dimitrov @1.37 = @1.90

+$900

[kenz]

$1500 on Fognini ML @1.23 * Dimitrov ML @1.32 marathonbet = @1.722

-$1500

Faking livebetshitfest

[kenz]

$600 on Cilic +1.5 sets @1.99 * Dimitrov ML @1.32 = @2.63

+$978

[kenz]

Day Total: $900 - $1500 + $978 = +$378

Total: +$9,573.95

[kenz]

Great turnaround after dumb livebet. Lost 1.9K of my profit from dumb livebets on Fogna and Rosol

[kenz]

Tomorrow's lock is tiebreak in Lopez - Isner but I expect @1.20 odds for this

[AceKingHigh]

Good job Kenz. waiting to hear what you have in mind for tomorrow.

[kenz]

@AceKingHigh

Lopez - Isner should see some tiebreaks. Every set 10.5 over/12.5 over can be played. I dont like anything else tomorrow.

[AceKingHigh]

Cool, do you play anything else? MLB SOCCER ...? :P looks like you're doing an impressive job so far, keep it up!

[kenz]

Cool, do you play anything else? MLB SOCCER ...? :P looks like you're doing an impressive job so far, keep it up!

No nothing else. I would def cash Turkish Basketball Championship game but my team Galatasaray did not show-up for the game I dont enjoy watching/capping any other sports than tennis but Ghana-Germany was a nice game in WC, that I accidentaly catched. Thanks and BOL

[Robin Van Rogan]

Nice kenz, good to see that you managed to get out on green after all.
I'm doing quite the profit following your plays, although I didn't bet Rosol nor Fognini hahaha

Thanks so much for putting your plays here so people like me can tail and learn

[tipsadontlikehim]

Tomorrow's lock is tiebreak in Lopez - Isner but I expect @1.20 odds for this

Oh man that's the kind of bet I could play 5K easily on it, but 1.20 I think you are dreaming! Do you have the odds ? I can imagine 1.10 or something like that.

[tipsadontlikehim]

LOL i was too optimistic best is 1.062 on Betfair http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wi...break-in-match
You get 1.03 on bet365