[Marillion]

In-play - Flipkens to win set 2 (3.50) - 0.5 unit

[Marillion]

Burnett to defeat Krunic (1.61) - 1 unit
Elias to defeat Collarini (1.66) - 1 unit

[bosigga]

Are u watching the Sharapova match?

Assuming she can close out this set, who looks better for the third?

[Marillion]

No. I have just come home. It's just that the opening odds were maybe way too high for Flippers and they have reflected in the live odds as well. But since the Belgian has not been good since the beginning of the year and Masha crushed her in Paris (on a way faster surface, I admit), I didn't back her.

I'm also an Inter supporter btw.

[Marillion]

Btw, if I have to guess, maybe it's worth backing Kirsten for the third set. In several matches in Australian Open, Masha played well in the beginning (Knapp, Cornet, Cibulkova) and then, she started doing a lot of unforced errors... but I don't know.

[bosigga]

Yeah you really do never know with WTA. I threw Maria in a parlay, figured she spanked the Belgian in Paris..and now she's struggling to win a set. Oy.

Nice, yeah Ibra is my favorite player. This rebuilding period is rough, but at least we aren't doing as bad as AC Milan haha

[bosigga]

Was going to just let it ride for the third, but with how this match went I couldn't resist for a small hedge at the price of +335

[Marillion]

Damn, I entered the site, saw it was 3-3 and 4.00 odds for Lajovic and before I logged in and got to the in-play section, it was like 2.50.

[Marillion]

Velotti to defeat Lapenti (1.50) - 1 unit

[fcmb]

Velotti to defeat Lapenti (1.50) - 1 unit

Good play mate, i am also on Velotti(i was too late to post pick)

Good luck to us

[Marillion]

It's only 6-0 2-0... the match is not over!

[fcmb]

It's only 6-0 2-0... the match is not over!

Agree & I did not say that it is

[Marillion]

-2.77 units for these picks... I have posted 3 picks for today but I was feeling pretty sick the last day or two and couldn't do much research, so I thought I'd better make them 1 unit only.

Robredo to defeat Benneteau (1.72) - 2 units win
Lopez to defeat Murray (5.00) - 1 unit loss
Czink to defeat Hradecka (2.50) - 0.5 unit void
Cornet to defeat Cibulkova (3.25) - 0.5 unit loss
Rola to defeat Riba-Madrid (1.53) - 3 units loss -3.06
(in-play) - Cibulkova to take Set 1 at (2.25) down and 30-15 lead at 5-6 (0.5 unit)... win
In-play - Flipkens to win set 2 (3.50) - 0.5 unit loss
Suarez Navarro to defeat Kanepi (1.72) - 3 units win
Anderson to defeat Gasquet (2.00) - 2 units loss

Wins-Losses-Void
138-81-10

total units risked: 420.15 total units won: 464.05

YTD
+43.90 units

ROI
10.45%

[Marillion]

Fognini to defeat Bautista-Agut (2.10) - 2 units

With these odds, I think the choice is either Fognini ML or nothing (maybe the over, of course, but I kinda avoid overs).
I'd dare to make the uneducated guess that Fognini, who is quite a skilled, versatile player should be tough for Roberto and should have more than 50% of winning the match. Let's see.

[Marillion]

Cibulkova to defeat Radwanska (1.57) - 1 unit

I wouldn't call that fat value with 1.57 odds but still.. Domi should take in control things here with her good baseline game.

[Marillion]

Wawrinka to defeat Dolgopolov (1.28) - 1 unit

Dolgopolov is tired having been on the tour without a pause for almost 2 months and this is starting to influence his game. Stan the Man for small value is the game here, I think. I almost managed to put a bet at 1.30 but the odds felt down!

[Marillion]

Saitova to defeat Stefanou (1.50) - 1 unit
Py to defeat Bonadio (1.44) - 1 unit
Golubic to defeat Jabeur (1.90) - 1 unit

[Marillion]

Adding 1 more unit on Wawa to defeat Dolgopolov (now at 1.33) and 1 unit on Wawa -3.5 games at 1.90.

As stated in previous posts, I like money lines bets but let's try some other stuff from time to time...

[Marillion]

-1.14 units for today... it could have been an awesome day but it wasn't, so let's learn lessons and move on.

Burnett to defeat Krunic (1.61) - 1 unit loss
Elias to defeat Collarini (1.66) - 1 unit win
Velotti to defeat Lapenti (1.50) - 1 unit win
Fognini to defeat Bautista-Agut (2.10) - 2 units win
3 units lost - 3 bets on Wawrinka match
Saitova to defeat Stefanou (1.50) - 1 unit win
Golubic to defeat Jabeur (1.90) - 1 unit loss

Wins-Losses-Void
142-84-10

total units risked: 430.14 total units won: 472.90

YTD
+42.76 units

ROI
9.94%

[Marillion]

Bertens to defeat Brengle (1.50) - 2 units

[Marillion]

Buyukakcay to defeat Smitkova (2.00) - 3 units
A. Benneteau to defeat T. Simon (1.33) - 1 unit
Erakovic to defeat Rodina (1.25) - 1 unit

[Marillion]

Adding 1 more unit on Cibulkova... odds have risen to 1.72, which is significant.

[MartyFR]

Adding 1 more unit on Cibulkova... odds have risen to 1.72, which is significant.

Explanation please?

[Marillion]

I think since Dominika has been so good and precise with her baseline game recently, she should be able to take in control the match versus Aga and overpower her (like in Australia). The Slovak seems to be in super form, very motivated (she has for example said that she won't be playing for Slovakia this year, as she wants to concentrate on her career now... and I think she didn't bother to play at 100% in the matches against Germany).

Of course taking number 11 in the world at 1.57 against number 3 should always raise a shitty odds alert no matter who the players are (and I should have learnt something from my Wawa bets yesterday) but I hope it's good.. at least unless Wawa, Domi hasn't recently lost to an inferior player. Adding one more unit after such a change in the odds is logical.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Looking to tail some of these...which would you suggest?

[Marillion]

Sorry man I really can't say one over the other.
Good luck if you do.

[Marillion]

Pretty bad my biggest bet Buykakcay lost. At least I think Antoine Benneteau won.

Razzano to defeat Larsson (2.25) - 1 unit
Based on the good play of Virginie in Miami. She has had some very tough times behind her but I definitely think she can win this one.

Btw my record above is slightly wrong and I'll fix it now. I thought Py has won because the match was no longer in the in-play section while he actually lost the second set and then the play was delayed for today (or something like that).

[Marillion]

Llodra/Mahut to defeat Bryan/Bryan (3.25) - 1 unit

Pretty brave play, of course, but I think they can do it.

[Marillion]

1 more unit on Domi at 1.80. Let's get buried!

[Marillion]

Barty to defeat Cepelova (1 unit, in-play at 30-30 in the first game) - 2.75 (odds were the same as the opening ones... I had just noticed this match and the odds)

[Marillion]

Put 1 unit on Cepelova at 2.00 (1-1 sets), so it's either a push or free $.

[Marillion]

OK, I won't post in-play stuff any longer, if I do any from time to time, I'll keep them for myself, that makes the thread really messy. Here is one more play and a results update will follow:

Dutra Silva/Olivo to defeat Zverev/Zverev (1.53) - 1 unit

[Marillion]

Cibulkova to defeat Radwanska - 3 wins (1 unit each) at 1.57, 1.72 and 1.80
Bertens to defeat Brengle (1.50) - 2 units win
Buyukakcay to defeat Smitkova (2.00) - 3 units loss
A. Benneteau to defeat T. Simon (1.33) - 1 unit win
Erakovic to defeat Rodina (1.25) - 1 unit win
Razzano to defeat Larsson (2.25) - 1 unit loss
one win and one loss (in-play) for a return of 0 units on the Cepelova-Barty match, 2 units in total

Wins-Losses-Void
149-87-10

total units risked: 443.14 total units won: 486.57

YTD
+42.43 units

ROI
9.57%

[Marillion]

Lacko to defeat Kudla (1.57) - 2 units

[Marillion]

Dolgopolov to defeat Berdych (3.00) - 0.5 unit