1. 01-26-13 01:02 AM #1
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Azarenka will win the title over Li tonight.....take Azarenka -140

    Oddsmakers are putting too much weight on Li's win over Sharapova. Sure that was an impressive win and so was the win over Radwanska. However to beat Azarenka after beating those two would be a MONUMENTAL task for Li tonight.

    This line should be close to -200 range and to get Azarenka at only -140 is an absolute steal. Sure, oddsmakers are accounting for the recent controversy and hoping that the crowd can boost LI's confidence.......the bottom line is Azarenka is the much better player and should be favored by considerably more.

    Keep in mind, Stephens didnt "almost came back" and beat Azarenka. Vika dominated the match and Stephens had her few moments of glory but the reality is she got straight setted.

    Azarenka has a better serve, much more consistent groundstrokes, moves better, better defense and mentally owns Li.     Azarenka has the number one ranking for a good reason. She plays great defense for a player with her power and size.

    Just like last night, casual bettors will be jumping on the wrong train.
    Azarenka will take the trophy tonight and win the 2013 Australian Open.


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  2. 01-26-13 01:09 AM #2
    One2envy78
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    Nice write up MDF! Thoughts on games spread of -2 Azarenka?
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  3. 01-26-13 01:12 AM #3
    ohumad
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  4. 01-26-13 01:14 AM #4
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by One2envy78 View Post
    Nice write up MDF! Thoughts on games spread of -2 Azarenka?
    I think she can definitely cover the 2 games. If you can get that close to a pick, I would take that also. The Azarenka -1.5 sets +175 is also another line with value if you want to put a small unit on that as well. Straight sets tonight will not be out of the question with Vika on the court.

    Best of Luck
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  5. 01-26-13 01:16 AM #5
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by ohumad View Post
    nice vid ohumad
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  6. 01-26-13 01:23 AM #6
    Dr.Gonzo
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    Looking at the futures betting before the semi finals, Azarenka was +120 and Li was +1200. I can't recall what the Azarenka future was after the Li win, but I'd imagine she would have been shorter odds then we see tonight.

    Sure Li was impressive against Sharapova but if I were setting the line I couldn't justify such an enormous swing in the market.

    This line is an over reaction to the "choking time out".
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  7. 01-26-13 01:24 AM #7
    Optional
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    "mentally owns Li" <-- Azarenka has it all to lose, on top of the raw memory of a panic attack in her last match.

    Agree with everything else but think mental is the one area Aza is the dog here.

    I suspect sections of the crowd will give her heaps too.
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  8. 01-26-13 01:28 AM #8
    Dr.Gonzo
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    If I were Azarenka I'd take an injury time out at the first real advantageous part of the match

    #heel
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  9. 01-26-13 01:29 AM #9
    Optional
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    ^^^ that would be awesome. The crowd would go ballistic
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  10. 01-26-13 01:30 AM #10
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    "mentally owns Li" <-- Azarenka has it all to lose, on top of the raw memory of a panic attack in her last match.

    Agree with everything else but think mental is the one area Aza is the dog here.

    I suspect sections of the crowd will give her heaps too.
    Recent last four matches between these two ......Azarenka 4-0 ....two of those matches were total domination. She's got the mental edge over Li knowing that she's pawned her the last four times.
    Last edited by MagicDiceFlow; 01-26-13 at 01:35 AM.
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  11. 01-26-13 01:35 AM #11
    Optional
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    We are just looking at the same data and seeing it differently. But I'd say being taken to 3 sets in 2 out of 3 matches last year would put more doubt in Azarenkas mind than build her confidence.

    I don't think mental is everything here, but a grand slam final is going to bring out those weaknesses more than any other match she will play.
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  12. 01-26-13 01:39 AM #12
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    We are just looking at the same data and seeing it differently. But I'd say being taken to 3 sets in 2 out of 3 matches last year would put more doubt in Azarenkas mind than build her confidence.

    I don't think mental is everything here, but a grand slam final is going to bring out those weaknesses more than any other match she will play.
    The mental aspect will only come into play should it go to a final 3rd and tight set. For the most part , it will be decided by who can sustain the rallies the longest and close out with the big shots.

    Good Luck on whoever you bet Optional.
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  13. 01-26-13 01:40 AM #13
    kenz
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    Na Li +1.5 sets is the lock.

    Be prepared for an upset also. She is very different in Aus. Open. She beat Azarenka here 2 years ago 6-3, 6-3.

    Their all matches were very tight in points earned, bps earned and converted.

    Dont be too surprised if Azarenka loses here.
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  14. 01-26-13 01:45 AM #14
    kenz
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    Stephens wasnt aggressive against Azarenka. If she was aggressive at her own services she could take the 2nd set.

    Hampton was aggressive look at what happened

    Na Li is 100% fit, has amazing backhand, has the heart of a warrior and if she does not make a lot of unforced errors she is the favorite here.

    I dont like Azarenkas serves this year. I watched her against injured Pervak, Lisicki, Hampton and Stephens.

    Na Li will win a set and the match is 50-50
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  15. 01-26-13 01:57 AM #15
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by kenz View Post
    Na Li +1.5 sets is the lock.

    Be prepared for an upset also. She is very different in Aus. Open. She beat Azarenka here 2 years ago 6-3, 6-3.

    Their all matches were very tight in points earned, bps earned and converted.

    Dont be too surprised if Azarenka loses here.
    After Li beat Azarenka here in early 2011, Vika has never been beaten here since .....winning 13 straight matches now. Azarenka is a much different player than that Vika of early 2011 and has not lost to Li since.
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  16. 01-26-13 02:01 AM #16
    kenz
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagicDiceFlow View Post
    After Li beat Azarenka here in early 2011, Vika has never been beaten here since .....winning 13 straight matches now. Azarenka is a much different player than that Vika of early 2011 and has not lost to Li since.
    I know. But the games were very tight in all statistics and Azarenka ML was never @1.70. it is due time Still my bet is Na Li +1.5 sets. ML is 50-50 for me, I am not gonna take the risk

    I still think Na Li will win though
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  17. 01-26-13 02:11 AM #17
    shari91
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    Seems like every bloody commentator here is on Li Na. GL with your bets everyone - I just want a dramatic 3 setter.
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  18. 01-26-13 02:44 AM #18
    Optional
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    GL to you too MDF

    Ended up going Over 22.5 here
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  19. 01-26-13 02:48 AM #19
    shari91
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    OK MDF - I'm going to use your thread to cheer on Aza for my points bet.
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  20. 01-26-13 02:49 AM #20
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by shari91 View Post
    OK MDF - I'm going to use your thread to cheer on Aza for my points bet.
    Good luck , let's win this........Aza with the early break
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  21. 01-26-13 02:49 AM #21
    suicidekings
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    Love the Azarenka impressions already filtering down from the crowd, haha.
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  22. 01-26-13 03:10 AM #22
    Optional
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    I was about to type "Aza focused as hell" just before that 6th game she was broken in.

    I'll get to see if she really is now!
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  23. 01-26-13 03:13 AM #23
    shari91
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    The way Li's painting the lines I think this is going to be a quick match.
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  24. 01-26-13 03:21 AM #24
    shari91
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    Vikaaaaaaaaaaa... hold serve!!!
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  25. 01-26-13 03:22 AM #25
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Vika showing some heart .....just broke Li again.
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  26. 01-26-13 03:24 AM #26
    Optional
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    Wonder if the wind has picked up. Just noticed both players hair is flapping in it now.
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  27. 01-26-13 03:25 AM #27
    Sharp Snake
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    This match has been pitiful. To not be able to hold your own serve or to even have a chance to win a set with only 2 winners is just poor overall.
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  28. 01-26-13 03:29 AM #28
    shari91
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    Oh Vika you dumb bloody woman.
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  29. 01-26-13 03:30 AM #29
    Sharp Snake
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    What a fitting way to end the first set. A double fault! Perfect ending.
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  30. 01-26-13 03:31 AM #30
    Frenchy616
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    Well Azarenka just ****** all of us
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  31. 01-26-13 03:31 AM #31
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Aza's leaving her groundstrokes too high. She needs to flatten out her shots more.
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  32. 01-26-13 03:32 AM #32
    Tmuston Beltics
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    lol "#1".. pathetic. hope she loses now.
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  33. 01-26-13 03:44 AM #33
    Tmuston Beltics
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    Wow they can't hold serve. Could get -145 for Aza to hold her serve. Nearly a break by Li again. Phew she held her serve omg.
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  34. 01-26-13 03:45 AM #34
    shari91
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    Just saw on Twitter: In 24 of the last 25 last Slam finals the player who won the first set won the match. Only exception is Li Na here in 2011.
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  35. 01-26-13 03:47 AM #35
    Sharp Snake
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    Azarenka's best shot is her return serve. Seems to be the quickest and flattest shot she has. How does that make sense?
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