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Indian Wells
Xavier Malisse - Radek Stepanek
Pick: Xavier Malisse @ 2.2 [+120]
Why: I give 50% of chance to both so it's right to go with the belgian with this odd. Another time I consider the surface; Malisse it's little better from behind, but it's a crazy horse and you never know how he will get into the court. Should be harder here for Radek to go to the net and do is peculiar game. They met in Indy in 2006 and Malisse won 6-1 6-1. Hope he will repeat this tonight.
BetVictor
Indian Wells
Feliciano Lopez - Marcos Baghdatis
Pick: Number of Games: Over 22.5 @ 1.75 [-133]
Why: This is the typical balanced match that can finish 6-3 6-2 or can be a very tough fight. Today I think it will be the second. I don't see anyone dominating here and for me it's very likely to have a third setter. They faced three times and always gave blood, remember a 8-6 for Lopez at fifth set at Wimbledon in 2008.
BetVictor
Monfils withdrew lol, the double becomes a single at ridiculous odd on Tipsarevic.
It seems that "I don't give a **** of Tennis" version of Malisse was in the court today.
Baghdatis easy in straights, Tipso won but it's a negative day.
Really wanted to play Bellucci with Melzer but then I heard he called phisio more times in first round and I passed. Obviously had nothing today and won 6-3 6-3.
It's all good Nikki!!! the DOGS are not doing good right now. If we had known Mchale would defeat kvitova against that odd, it would have given us some excitement. But no worries, I know with your studies, we will definitely bounce back tomorrow or so...keep up your good work Nikki!!!Originally Posted by Nikigreat
History
Parlays: 12-8 [+16.61]
Dogs: 5-12-1V [-7.17]
Favorites: 8-1 [+11.84]
Over: 2-1 [+5.78]
Handicap: 1-2-1V [-4.93]
Futures: 1-3 [+1.31]
Total: 23.44
Played Hampton in the night, couldn't post it, sorry.
Yeah mate, let's go.
Hope to get some good idea for tonight because I don't like any ML in particular for now.
I'll probably jump on some total or handicap but don't know what to pick yet.
Lets do some favorite ML parlays!!!....unless you have any dogs!!!
How are you feeling about the o22.5 for Roddick-Berdych? They seem to play longer matches against each other and Roddick has played well against him on US soil (though Roddick is different this year). I feel fairly good about it being a 3-setter or at least hitting a tiebreak. I definitely don't see Roddick running away with it but maybe stealing a set. Any thoughts?
It all depends by Roddick.
If he pulls out his fighter spirit we'll have a close match.
Tiebreak is very likely for me, and would be my best play if my book offered odds for it.
The only two things that can scare on the over is the stamina of Andy, that I don't know how much it is, and the superiority of Berdych on rallies.
By the way to pick over in this match is smarter than to pick the under, so go with it if you feel it.
Indian Wells
Lucie Safarova - Francesca Schiavone
Pick: Number of Games: Over 21.5 @ 1.85 [-117]
Why: Motivations? Well, I just see a war here. Safarova is well shaped but Schiavone can stay close to her because of the slow surface.
BetVictor
Indian Wells
Pablo Andujar - Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Nikola Cacic - Michael Berrer
Pick: Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Michael Berrer @ 1.92 [-108]
Why: Berrer shouldn't have a tough one with this young Cacic that wins now some matches at futures levels.
I really like this odd on Ramos. Picked him at 1.8, odds dropped in the meantime I added Berrer at 1.75. How unlucky lol.
Andujar is doing a good tournament, ok, but who has defeated? A poor player like Haase and then a Florian Mayer really far from the 2010-11 Mayer we knew.
Ramos won in a fight with Levine that is not to undervalue at home and on this surface, and then knocked out Gasquet making the biggest surprise since now.
He has bad head to head with Andujar but for me today will be different because Ramos is exploding in these month, is finding even a good serve, better than Pablo's, and would be a disappointing loss for him after beating a seeded player like Richard.
BetVictor
After asking about and liking the over in the Roddick match, Betonline closed the line a few minutes early and I just missed it. It dropped a half game from night to afternoon and I forgot to put it in.
Sorry guy, hope you will cash today
Hey niks, Are you playing anything tonight? Here are my thoughts on building a safe parlay:
1) Ferrer to bt. Istomin. Ferrer's been on fire winning all but one of his last games in two sets. Istomin just played a hard long three-setter against Chela. I think Ferrer takes this in two.
2) DePo to bt. Verdasco. Juan Martin leads the h2h 3-1 and last time bet Verdasco on clay 2-0 which is Verdy's best surface. Both are actually playing well but DePo is the deserved favourite here. His only losses are to Fed which is no surprise. The only potential upset I can see is if Verdy takes a set but I doubt that will happen.
3) Tsonga to bt. Stepanek. I'm usually quite skeptical of Tsonga and he lost the last matchup 0-2 on grass. I think this is the most risky play out of the ones I've chosen but Tsonga's losses in recent times are only to DePo who he historically can't beat anyway.
I'm also looking at the Davydenko/Bellucci play but I feel that is more risk than I am comfortable with. I would rather bet Ferrer 2-0. For WTA I'm looking at:
4) Radwanska to bt. Hampton. I think I told you before I don't like playing WTA because it is more unpredictable (or maybe its because I keep betting on Lisicki) but I think there are a few safe plays for tonight. Radwanska nearly bageled Hampton last year 6-0 6-1 and is playing amazingly well. She should win in two sets but I'd rather not risk Sets Betting in WTA.
5) Azarenka to bt. Goerges. Number 1 rank leads the h2h 2-1 and in the one she lost by retirement. I think she should win easily here. Goerge lost to Radwanska in two *shrug*
So what do you (or other posters reading) think? Parlaying all together gives decent odds for me, but I would rather take out any potential upsets.
Don't know if I'll play today because I am pretty unlucky at this moment, but I like many things:
Baghdatis over Dolgopolov
Verdasco Handicap games (or over if it's 20.5 like I saw in some books)
Raonic Handicap games
McHale over Kerber
Ferrer over Istomin (to put in a parlay)
Davydenko - Bellucci over games
Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm sure it will be a closer match than odds say.
Verdasco is playing good in Indy and the surface perfectly suits to him. Delpo wasn't extraordinary with Matosevic and the australian had some chances in the first set, before falling in the second for the fatigues of all his matches in a row.
For me if over line is playable at 20.5 games is a gift, if Verdasco loses it will be something like 7-6 6-3/6-4 or he can really take a set or more in this match. Obviously it's my feeling and feelings can be trusted like not.
Ok, let's see what we have today.
Indian Wells
Fernando Verdasco - Juan Martin Del Potro
Pick: Number of Games: Over 20.5 @ 1.85 [-117]
Why: Found it on Bet N°1 with line set at 20.5, now everyone gives this at 21.5. Just talking about this match in the previous post. Del Po didn't show perfect shape in his first round while Verdasco had a promenade with Sweeting. Watched Fernando in Acapulco and seems to be back in track, at least for me he has all what he needs to do a 50-50 match against this Del Potro; if the argentine will raise his level and will crush him in straights it's ok, but I don't know if he has the right energies to not conceed anything to the spanish today.
Bet N°1
Indian Wells
Milos Raonic - Roger Federer
Pick: Number of Games: Over 21.5 @ 1.85 [-117]
Why: On that same site, Bet N°1, this opened at 20.5 and I was like 0_0 when I saw it. Didn't have the time to take it and minutes after it went to 22.5. I found the line set at 21.5 on Eurobet and that seemed to be the best offer in that moment and I picked it.
Sounds stupid to remember that Raonic has a devastating serve and it's really hard to break him if it works at 100%, even for Federer. Moreover the swiss admitted to have contracted the intestinal virus that hitted many players here in Indian Wells and to not feel himself in his best physical condition. I think this game will follow the rule of serve and I see two close set (7-5 7-6) or maybe three.
Eurobet
Double
Marcos Baghdatis - Alexandr Dolgopolov, David Ferrer - Denis Istomin
Pick: Marcos Baghdatis, David Ferrer @ 1.88 [-113]
Why: Baghdatis gives me many more reason to pick him instead of Dolgo. He won an easy match in straights with Feli Lopez and since Rotterdam and in Dubai then he showed some good Tennis. The ucraine is really having trouble to win a match and I don't trust him for nothing. The surface helps him to avoid Dolgo's rap serve and to better handle rallies from the baseline. The same surface it's perfect even for Ferrer that can really lost to Istomin if putting the match on regularity.
Bet N°1
With a great fatigue the over came out in Verdasco - Del Potro.
Really fun to lose the parlay because of Ferrer who clearly was ill today and still decide to go in the court unlike everyone else. Oh, and in spite everything, he wasted a 3-1 and serve lead in the second.
I know. Can't believe that Ferrer game but I heard there was a bug going around over there and a some of the players pulled out. I guess in a way I was lucky. Lost track of the time and was literally about 30 seconds too late to place my bet! Close shave!
History
Parlays: 12-10 [+13.99]
Dogs: 5-12-1V [-7.17]
Favorites: 8-1 [+11.84]
Over: 4-1-1V [+10.00]
Handicap: 1-2-1V [-4.93]
Futures: 1-3 [+1.31]
Total: 25.04
Update of two days.
Well done with the overs yesterday, Baghdatis + Ferrer to forget.
Indian Wells
Novak Djokovic - Pablo Andujar
Pick: Number of Games: Under 18.5 @ 1.83 [-120]
Why: This not much known bookmaker gives lines quite different than normal. Everyone has 16.5 or 17.5 and when I saw this I jumped on it. Novak did 6-2 6-3 with a great server like Anderson, I can't see him not winning with the same or maybe better score today.
Bet N°1
Last edited by Nikigreat; 03-14-12 at 12:34 PM.
Lucky you...I have it at U17 in my book, so cant risk on that, but what do you think of Nadal U19. He is playing great. I think he should win with 6-2 6-4 or 6-3 6-3.......thoughts????
Lol after what happened today with Andujar I don't feel ok to predict anything.
For me it's under but never know.
Don't like anything in particular today, just wait for the Nadal in the semis prop that I played at the start of the tournament and then we'll see.
2 match ups for later on....I need some thoughts plz...
IMO, Isner and Djok match will go over 21 1/2 for sure since Isner can most of the times save his serve with his aces if he gets them at right times when needed...n the way Djok is playing I think he might even drop a set which would be easy 28-30. So, I am going over on this match.
Rafa/Fed....I am almost certain that Nadal will win this match but he already dropped 1 set against Nalbandian today so am not sure if he is going to win in straight sets or will take 3....so am going with ML on this one...
Comments will be highly appreciated....
Novak Djokovic - John Isner
I still find the line of games set at 20.5 on BetVictor. That should be an easy thing if John manages to bring a set at least to 5-5. This has to be the best play. What can scare the over? A possible debacle of Isner after losing a very close first set. In QF lost second set 6-1 with Simon, but we must say he let it go after losing the serve and putting his mind focused on third even before that the second was ended. Novak can really make Isner exhaust moving him all around the court and we'll see John trying to make rallies shorts as soon as he can. Anyway a tiebreak is enough for the over.
Roger Federer - Rafael Nadal
The quarter finals won't change my thoughts on this one.
Roger faced a very poor and tired Delpo.
Nalbandian played first set like only gods, perfect timing, ball hitted so well, deep shots, sweet drop shots and very good percentage with serve and managed to hold that level in the second. Rafa was so strong mentally and that's the key today with Roger. He was always faultless in important points. For who thinks last match can create some doubt in Nadal's head, I think the opposite: he came out winner of a match where he met the best player so far, because nobody in Indy played the Tennis David played yesterday, and he clearly knows it.
As said at the start of the tournament, the surface helps Rafa and can be decisive against the swiss. Roger seemed to have fully recovered from the virus, but Rafa's legs are really working well and I consider the spanish a little better under the phisyque aspect.
Rafael Nadal ML is the best play for me in this one.
Cannot motivate today, sorry.
Marrakech Challenger
Stephane Robert - James Duckworth
Pick: James Duckworth @ 2.5 [+150]
BetVictor
Marrakech Challenger
Paul-Henri Mathieu - Inigo Cervantes-Huegun
Pick: Inigo Cervantes-Huegun @ 2.62 [+162]
BetVictor
Double
Yannick Mertens - Timo Nieminen, Federico Del Bonis - Daniel Gimeno-Traver
Pick: Yannick Mertens, Federico Del Bonis @ 2.35 [+135]
BetVictor
I missed all of these plays...Kinda broke-even a last couple of days. Hit an easy over on Djokovic-Isner game, but lost on Nadal ML (STILL CANT BELIEVE HE LOST IN STRAIGHT SETS TO FED). Had Isner saved one game on his serve after making 3-3 in 2nd set (finals), I would have hit over 22.5 but the match ended in 22, so tough luck. I knew something like this would happen when Fed's in mood. Well, just looking forward to your plays now. I think you have not been playing a lot lately, Niki. I think it's time you go strong with parlays that you have done good with. BOL!!!
History
Parlays: 13-10 [+16.42]
Dogs: 6-13-1V [-7.03]
Favorites: 8-1 [+11.84]
Over: 4-1-1V [+10.00]
Under: 0-1 [-4.00]
Handicap: 1-2-1V [-4.93]
Futures: 1-3 [+1.31]
Total: 23.60
2-1 with Challengers yesterday, Cervantes really disappointing.
WTA Miami
Outright Winner
Pick 1: Agniezska Radwanska @ 21 [+2000]
Pick 2: Caroline Wozniacki @ 23 [+2200]
Why: These prices are out of the world, especially for Agniezska. Then Azarenka will take the crown another time, but those odds deserve an attempt.
BetVictor
Up later with first Miami picks.
Miami
Nicolas Mahut - Fernando Gonzalez
Pick: Fernando Gonzalez @ 2.4 [+140]
Why: This is the last tournament of Fernando, he will give everything he has and has a shot to take this since Mahut is not in a great moment and the motivations of the chilean can make the difference here.
BetVictor
Miami
Guillaume Rufin - Tommy Haas
Pick: Guillaume Rufin @ 2.8 [+180]
Why: Haas seemed to have found a good shape in the last tournaments, especially in Dallas, but he had a problem to the chest and I don't think he is at 100% now.
Rufin played very solid in qualies, winning even 6-1 6-0 in last round with Bagnis.
BetVictor
Miami
Ivan Dodig - Philipp Petzschner
Pick: Philipp Petzschner @ 1.83 [-120]
Why: Two players in crisis, I go with the one I "trust" more and who has more variations and solutions in this match for me.
BetVictor
Miami
Guillaume Rufin - Tommy Haas, Alejandro Falla - Denis Istomin
Pick: Guillaume Rufin +3.5 games, Falla +4.5 games @ 3.31 [+231]
Why: Rufin: see up.
I expect Istomin a little tired, played many matches in last tournaments; Falla can have a chance if plays his best tennis but at least one close set and not more than a break in the other is enough for this handicap.
BetVictor
Miami
Andreas Seppi - Roberto Bautista-Agut
Pick: Number of games: Over 21.5 @ 2.05 [+105]
Why: Bautista qualified here and has already found the feelings with the surface. Seppi usually starts slowly, he can drop at least a set but I don't think he will lose in two. I see a three setter and a close match by the way.
BetVictor
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