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Let's say you're right and you bet -2 on what you say is a true -8 line. It's still so far off that a Book is well w/i its rights to cancel it before gametime. And the fact that other Books copied the error line is not relevant. By no means are you guilty of taking a shot, (I would have done the same) but don't act surprised that some Books canceled it. Just be thankful for any Book that allowed the bet to stand--because it would have been a gift. JMO.Originally Posted by Justin7
That would be absurd. It's fairly common for small market openers to be off by that much.
Completely obvious error for anyone who handicaps the sport.
An 11-2 team at home vs a 5-7 team and favored by by less than HFA with no significant injuries and nobody resting?
I could have told you that was a misprint before I was ten just on that tiny bit of info alone. Toss your model to the curb.
-2 ML in arena is around -120
-12 ML in arena is around -400 range
Line closed -11
280 cents isn't off?
The barrage all happened in about about a 6 minute span, then the line was corrected everywhere.
I think what is so frustrating for me is your unwillingness to admit it was a misposted line.
From everything I have read, you seem extremely fair in your arbitrations, except when it's YOUR money.
So how far off can a "small market" line be off before it's considered an error? What's absurd is that you think a bad line is okay because it doesn't involve the NFL, NBA,NHL, MLB etc....
A bad line is a bad line. And this error was obvious.
foul
they need to honor the bets.
They can cancel that prolly...i think what matters in this case is how they do it, e.g. how fast and if they notify per email.
The funny part however is how much it shows that all the copycats are not bookmakers.
They should be ashamed for not having a person with at least a slight glimmer of clue putting those copied lines up.
the real issue here is an issue that nobody at offshore is willing to address: namely, WHAT IS A BAD LINE?
in vegas, all bets honoured as written (j7 can claim a few exceptions, but that's how it should work)
at offshores, subjectivity is the main determining factor of claiming whether or not a line is bad. all the people here arguing whether the bad line is "obvious" or not is entirely missing the pt, namely, how can you claim a "bad" line when there is no explicit definition for it?
imo, book needs to 1.) explicitly define how large the threshold should be before a line can be called a "bad" line (10% move or more in implied win %)
and 2.) use rest of the market at the time of post as the benchmark for risk-neutral line
but since currently there is no standard definition of a "bad" line, the book can just void whenever they "opine" they've made a mistake, yet bettors always have to guess and get free-rolled
This is a great question!!!!
What exactly is the difference between a fair line that is slightly off and a bad line? what protective measure do players have against books free rolling them every time their model is less accurate than the market?
It is ridiculous that a book can cancel wagers when they make mistakes yet if a player accidentally confirms the wrong side of a wager they are not allowed to cancel it.
Most importantly I am appalled that the book who set the line honors the wager but copy cat books are allowed to claim bad line. How is it a bad line if the book who set the line grades it a winner????
Justin:
Although I disagree with your dispute, you are certainly welcome to fill out an SBR complaint. A link has been provided.
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Spor...Complaint.aspx
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You are acting as if they canceled a line where it wasn't 100% clear that it is bad.
-2 to -10 or whatever...come on, if they notify you fast that they won't honor this bet...that is fully within the rules.
HFA in arena is worth 1 point, not 3...At least it was before the restructuring of the league. I haven't calculated it since then.
Line closed 10.5/11. Call it 10.75.
If the fair line was 8, I would expect "resistance points" at 11 and 5 (a resistance point being where I would no longer bet on the game).
--Edit: 10.5 and 5.5 as resistance points; I would (and did) bet it for one salvo at 11+ or 5-
It was a good bet, but there have been many other lines I thought (in Arena and other sports) that were off more.
go back to "Obvious error". That is the rule that matters, right? Does it have to be obvious to me, or the sportsbook? Either way, it was not obvious.
For the record, Frank, who does Obvious error apply to?
Last edited by Justin7; 06-20-11 at 09:41 PM.
Let's assume all the given facts in this thread, but a first-time poster is bringing this case to light. Let's further assume that the Book deleting the bet is 5 Dimes. How would SBR, or Justin for that matter, rule?
Maybe books software should have a "confirm this line" button and require them to enter a password before they submit their lines
The book doesn't matter. I have no qualms with shredding an A+ book, although I typically give them a very fair chance to fix it. In fairness, disputes with A+ books while rare, don't get reported. I think Dozer and the SBR staffers gets a little unsettled when I get involved in disputes with those books. I had a pretty strong disagreement with an A+ book a few weeks ago... I said they owed a player on a voided wager, and they said they didn't even after I explained it to them. They eventually paid the player.
As with any contract, you have to focus on the terms. The issue is: "Was it an obvious error?"
Reading the rules of most books, "obvious error" is not defined. Everyone knows that if a book puts up +3.5 on an NFL game when the market is -3.5, that is an obvious error. In every single dispute I have ever seen with SBR, the market price is a starting point to determine whether there was an obvious error. What if there is no comparable market, like in props? The legendary Henry chewed me out once for voiding wagers once. I screwed up, and a price was set at pick when the fair price was about -500. But, there was no market. Per Henry, "When there is no market, you can't void bets for a bad line".
The market price is the standard for whether there is an obvious error. If you start looking at line movements to determine this, you are suggesting that a weak line put up initially can be voided if there is a big move. There was an NBA game with a 6-point move near the end of last season. Was that bad?
I once wrote for the Pinnacle Pulse about bad lines. Let me quote myself... "A general rule of thumb is that a number is bad if it gives you a 7% EV (expected value) versus the market price." (Pinnacle Pulse #25, incorrectly listed as #24 here: http://www.bettorsworld.com/pinnacle-pulse/24.htm )
The market has always been used to determine whether a line was bad. I have never seen a sportsbook claim the entire market was retarded, so they should be able to void a bet.
I've had two bets cancelled at Pinnacle, presumably for being bad lines.
In the first case, Pinnacle was the only book who had a line up for that event. Apparently, in that particular case, "When there is no market, you CAN void bets for a bad line".
In the second case, my bet was far less than 7% EV versus the market (more like 2-3%). Nonetheless ... cancelled by Pinnacle. This one still baffles me as to why it was cancelled.
Bizar.
Please list how each of the books involved resolve this.
If all the books had the same line up, the bets should stand.
Bad lines are for clerical errors - putting up -20 instead of -2, putting up +5 instead of -5.
Bad lines are not for when a whole bunch of books are clueless and copy one book who screwed up setting a line.
Bullshit not to honor the bets. This is why books have such low limits on sports they dont know
Did you file a complaint?
I wonder if Henry is still running the show. He'd crack some skulls over stuff like this.
Not sure how 7% difference as bad line should be accepted universally. A line -1340 (93.05%) for world not ending in year 2012 is certainly a bad line to me.
The point is there is no need to argue what is a bad line. Everybody has their own definition. The solution though, should at least include a choice for bet to stand, like Pinnacle usually does.
Last edited by wrongturn; 06-20-11 at 11:18 PM.
This.
And I would add that if books can get away with voiding these bets under the "bad line" doctrine, we are the sliding hopelessly down the slippery slope that
will land us at a place where books can void any wager under a claim of a "bad line."
Is an opener really "the market?" That's a pretty big stretch.
Would you rather that they not offer them at all?
If you still using 1 as HFA then your model's numbers are way off in the first place.....good luck to you.
Why do you keep saying -8 was the fair line?
I don't understand where that came from.
This all happened in a 6 minute span where books got hit, moved on a few hits, then realized WTF was going on and took the game off the board.......all of them.......everyone.
Then put the game back up exactly 10 points higher than it was 9 minutes before.
It didn't climb the ladder.
THAT DOESN"T HAPPEN ON OFF LINES.....IT HAPPENS ON BAD LINES
It was "clearly obvious" CRIS meant to put up -12
If you have experience watching how sports markets move, and I think you do, then you know this.
And to the argument that the books moved a few times before realizing, some books auto-move on action and some auto-move to different books. Only when thresholds are met they take a closer look.
Go send Loshak to do an interview with CRIS and ask if they meant to put up -2 or -12
Where have I said it's because it doesn't involve the big 4 NA sports? If you read my posts I actually gave an example from NHL props. You can see from the line moves that linesmakers either have no clue about small market stuff or they just don't care because limits are low. Either way, there are lines that are off by more than this on a semi-regular basis. It's also pretty clearly not an error on the part of the books that copied. They made zero error, they just are too cheap to do their own homework.
Frank,
You are not reading. Until you read and respond to what I wrote, discussing this with you will only make the readers dumber. If you want to discuss this intelligently, go back and read what I've posted. I've spelled it out.
The obvious error is when the entire market, at the time maybe 40%, took the game OTB when no new information was available, only the realization of a mistake.
Your late season NBA examples are line hops when new information IS available usually due to rest.
Whole different ball game.
The only book that could argue that the line was bad is CRIS. None of the followers can argue that. There's a price to pay for following blindly. Very widespread phenomenon. It's not the players problem that these books are too uninformed, or lazy, to set their own lines. And it was not obvious to all that the line was bad, because if it had been that obvious none of these 'knowledgeable' books would have copied it. If these books don't want to get caught with their pants down again, they should rely less on CRIS and hire better linesmakers themselves. As long as they follow another book, they should take the downside with the upside. If it saves them money not to have linesmakers, they should pay the players from the money that has been saved.
"If these books don't want to get caught with their pants down again, they should rely less on CRIS and hire better linesmakers themselves."
But they're not going to hire better linesmakers of their own.
They'll stop offering small market sports rather than do that.
Then you'll encounter more BetJM type books, with almost no offerings at all in small markets, and when they do put them up it'll be close to gametime.
If you consider this a moral issue, you may ask "What would Jesus do"? I think of it more as gambling issue, so I'd ask "What would Tony do"? Can you imagine how that live chat would go?:
Me: May I speak to Tony please?
Tony :How can I help you?
Me: Why has my arena bet on Arizona canceled?
Tony: Obvious bad line.
Me: Obvious?
Tony: Very.
Tony: Correct line is 12 not 2
Me: Arizona was -2 at all my other Books, so it was not an error.
Tony: You think 2 is a fair line for an 11-2 team at home?
Tony: Versus a sub .500 team?
Tony: You took a shot.
Me: No I didn't. It's a small market event, so a larger line variance is to be expected.
Tony: 10 point variance?
Me: Justin7 and other respected SBR forum members think AZ-2 is a fair bet.
Tony: I could care less what the forums say.
Tony: Anything else?
Me: Yes, you can reinstate my AZ-2 bet.
Tony: No can do.
Tony: But I can disable your account if you persist with this nonsense.
Me: Never mind
Tony: Good. Take another shot and your account will be closed.
Tony: Now get off my live chat.
Last edited by HedgeHog; 06-21-11 at 08:05 AM.
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I think the books that copied the line should have to honor the wagers they took.
Wasn't a paper published in the Canadian Journal of Arbitrary Insight, volume XVI, issue 9, showing that the threshold is actually closer to 8.16%?
Based on this one instance? Nah. They're happy to accept the risk that the CRIS opener is off. What are the odds?
If it's profitable for them to offer small markets, they'll keep doing so.
It's funny how people who blindly follow the official opinion, instead of forming their own, are so willing not to take responsibility and accept the consequences when that opinion is shown to be wrong. Bleating sheep syndrome. If you want to know which of these books is standup and which is not, see if they blame someone else for their opinion.
Of course they could add a rule: if the opening line that we blindly follow is wrong, we are not responsible.
LVSC and MRG, where the line originates... CRIS does'nt make the line, they just post it first.
If CRIS actually used those guys' lines some of us would be a lot richer.
gotta know when they do and don't then.
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Justin7 gave HedgeHog 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
