Best bets for the Champions League final
Gus Elvin
ESPN INSIDER
It all comes down to Saturday night in Kiev, Ukraine, when Real Madrid and Liverpool -- two of the most historic clubs in European football -- compete in a one-off final for the world's most prestigious club football title, the UEFA Champions League title.
Holders Real Madrid are seeking to win a third straight European crown and become the first club to win three in a row since Bayern Munich (1974-76). Meanwhile, Liverpool are seeking to win a sixth European Cup and the first since that famous 2005 night in Istanbul. We'll see the most electric player in Europe this season in Mohamed Salah versus one of the best players ever in Cristiano Ronaldo.
With countless storylines and two of the most potent and attack-minded sides in Europe, the occasion promises to produce an unforgettable final. But who will win, and how should one approach it from a betting perspective?
Here's an in-depth look at the match and which lines and props to consider ahead of Saturday's kick-off.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of May 24.
Saturday, May 26 at 2:45 p.m. ET in Kiev, Ukraine
PickCenterEverything about this match points to it being an absolute cracker. Major cup finals have a tendency to be boring, cagey affairs, but at least on paper this one projects to be the furthest thing from boring. Liverpool and Real Madrid enter the final as the No. 2 and No. 3 attacks in the Champions League, with the Reds averaging 3.33 goals per game and Real Madrid posting a not-too-shabby 2.50 goals per contest.
Under Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool's high press has caused all sorts of problems for opponents this season. Their front line of Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane combined for an incredible 90 goals. Real Madrid endured an uneven season in La Liga, but their attack surely wasn't to blame. Los Blancos scored 94 goals in the league and another 30 in 12 Champions League games. Ronaldo has saved his best for the Champions League once again, having scored a competition-best 15 goals to date, including at least one in a record 10 consecutive games through the semifinal. With Isco, Karim Benzema, Marco Asensio and the suddenly in-form Gareth Bale, Real Madrid are more than just Ronaldo, and like Liverpool, possess an attack more than capable of putting three or four goals on the board in Kiev.
However, both teams are prone to issues at the back-end. Liverpool's defensive woes have been well chronicled the last couple of seasons, and although the addition of £75 million center-back Virgil van Dijk in January has helped, this is still a club well short of an elite defense. Liverpool's spotty defense has been on show at times during their UCL campaign, as the English club gave up four the last time out at Roma and previously squandered a 3-0 lead in the group stage to draw 3-3 with Sevilla. Need a reason not to trust Liverpool's defense? Look no further than Dejan Lovren. The Croatian has been the butt of endless jokes since arriving at Anfield in 2014, and despite his very questionable track record and propensity to commit egregious errors, he remains a sure-fire starter for the Reds.
While Liverpool's defense is the one usually being picked apart, Real Madrid's hasn't been much better this campaign. They had only the sixth-best defense in La Liga and have struggled protecting leads in the Champions League, allowing 15 goals in 12 games and notably nearly throwing away a 3-0 first-leg advantage against Juventus in the quarterfinal. Real Madrid's defenders are big-name players but also come with risk, with Sergio Ramos' discipline and Marcelo's tendency to prioritize attacking over defending often exposing Madrid to unwanted danger. Real Madrid are a far cry from the defensive unit they were the past two seasons, and that is one reason they look more vulnerable this time around.
Best bets, and who will win
Two free-flowing, attack-minded sides would be reason enough to like the over, but when you add in the defensive fragility of both clubs, over three goals seems like a slam dunk. It is hard to see a Liverpool defense featuring Lovren, Andrew Robertson and 19-year-old Trent Alexander-Arnold keeping Ronaldo and Real Madrid at bay. On the other side of the coin, Salah has been nearly impossible to stop this season on his way to 44 goals, and against a pair of offensive-minded full-backs like Marcelo and Dani Carvajal, the 'Egyptian King' and his running mates Firmino and Mane should find plenty of opportunities to score, as well.
Recent history backs this wager, as well. The Champions League final has produced at least four goals in three of the last four years, including two times in games involving Madrid. The safest play here is total goals, as two attack-minded teams loaded with star forwards, plus two questionable defenses, should equal a lot of goals in the Ukrainian capital.
Best bet: Over three combined goals (-140)
Proven champions Real Madrid and the moneyline is a decent move, as well. Liverpool's defense is still a major concern for me, and their path to the final outside of Manchester City was about as favorable as possible. Real Madrid are proven in this competition, having won two straight and three of the last four titles, and having survived a gauntlet this season that included Tottenham, Borussia Dortmunnd, PSG, Juventus and Bayern Munich to reach the final.
This one could really go either way as both teams are brilliant on the front foot and have similar issues on defense. That being said, experience matters, and while Real Madrid have rarely looked dominant this European campaign, they have continually found a way, a hallmark of a true champion. Liverpool have been a Cinderella story in Europe this season, and while I expect them to cause Real Madrid problems with their high-octane press, I think the clock is about to strike midnight on Klopp and his men. I'm not picking against Ronaldo, Zinedine Zidane and Co. in this competition. They know what it takes to get it done on Europe's biggest stage. The over on the total is the better bet, but I'd lean Real Madrid +120 here.
Prediction: Real Madrid 3, Liverpool 2
Other value bets to consider: first goalscorer
What about a value bet or potential low-risk, high-reward wager? Projecting the first player to score is often the best avenue. Ronaldo (3-1) and Salah (4-1) have the shortest odds, as would be expected, and while both are decent shots to be the first goalscorer, let's look outside the box a bit to find more value.
Gareth Bale, Real Madrid (13-2)
This is an enticing one to me and might be worth a small wager. Bale has a proven track record in big games, scoring the game-winners in both the 2013-14 Champions League final and 2013-14 Copa del Rey title game. Add in that after a trying and injury-prone season, Bale has scored in four straight starts (five goals overall), and the Welshman looks to be a decent bet based on recent form. He is expected to start for Zidane in Kiev, and based on his knack for the big occasion and timely run of form, don't be surprised to see him find the back of the net here.
Sadio Mane, Liverpool (9-1)
Mane has nine goals in 10 Champions League games this season, and going against Real Madrid's "attack first, defend second" full-backs, the pacy Senegalese winger could find an opportunity to strike early for Liverpool's first.
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Best Bets For The Champions League Final
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