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Plays so far for tonight:
Watford/Millwall Both Teams to Score @ -187.
Watford have only kept two clean-sheets this season at home, while Millwall are highest scoring away team in league and have conceded as well as scored in every game that they've played away from home.
Parlay: Valencia moneyline & Milan PK (draw-no-bet) double (pays out about Evens)
First one looks nice.Originally Posted by Vaughany
Parlay looks good, too. Imho BATE should get nothing in Valencia, Valencia killed them 3:0 in their own stadium. Soldado alone should do the job. Milan pk should be the obvious choice, but Malaga always gives me a little headache.... But honestly, I think Milan wins this.
Give me some thoughts about first half over 1.5 in the City - Ajax game. Odds around @2.20 and I have to admit, that I kind of like the price.
Could you explane please ?
Arsenal PK or draw-no-bet...if Arsenal win you take the winnings, if it's a draw you get your stake back - a push
Hmm yeah +120 odds isnt bad. Depends how Ajax approach the game...waiting to see their formation, if they play a defensive midfielder particularly. Sometimes they play 3 attack minded midfielders (and is what has cost them in some games in the league such as against Heerenveen when they drew 2-2). I expect Poulsen will play tho. Im seeing Ajax to score Over 0.5, 1 goals at Evens on Pinnacle as well which is very tempting. Also Dortmund Over 0.5,1 at -124 and Arsenal Over 1 goal at +108...gonna have a think about those.
Also Ibrahimovic to score a goal is -137 on pinnacle...the best you can get it elsewhere is -200. Some sites have it -300 to -500 range!
Last edited by Vaughany; 11-06-12 at 08:12 AM.
sorry
i guess i was not clear enough!
i was asking him to explane why he chose this pick. What was his reason to decide to bet on this outcome, on this bet at this ammount of money
ha oh ok. I think he said earlier or elsewhere it's just based on value. You don't usually find Arsenal this big a dog against a team in CL
To keep a long story short: the reason is value. That's that.
Said it in another thread (RubberKettle):
Right now Arsenal AHC0 @3.51 at pinnacle, because I think it's value. Schalke didn't look good against Hoffenheim, I don't like the way Stevens changes his goalies every now and then and yes Arsenal didn't look good lately as well. But if I can get this price in a CL game for an AHC0 for Arsenal against a good but not THAT good team I have to take it. I think the price is at least 0.5 to high
thanks..
for what i understand, every bet is based on value..
my question was why do you think there is value on this play
but thanks for the insight
let us know if you have more info
Ah yeah, before I forget it: Remember the nice little extra bet365 gives out today. Place a pregame bet up to 25€ on any event you want and your first live bet gets a cashback up to this 25€ if you lose your live bet! Have fun guys and see you later.
Decided to NOT play the over 1.5 in the City game.
ha yeah a buddy just told me about this. Unfortunately I'm limited to £5 bets on Bet365 so wont be getting that!
Normal for successfull punters. You need a lot of friends and relativesNext time you create a new account there: only use the account for live bets! everytime I post odds from b365 in this thread as pregame picks, I wait until the game started to make my bet. Limits come MUCH slower, I'm not limited since april 2012 right now, even though I made thousands on this book.
I love Ajax, honestly I do. I can't even be mad that I didn't bet the over 1.5 1st half. They get City out, I LOVE IT
Looking EXCELLENT in Gelsenkirchen! Got it @ 3,03 DNB at NordicBet.I'm on over 3 in Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund.
You jinxed my game man....Looking EXCELLENT in Gelsenkirchen! Got it @ 3,03 DNB at NordicBet.
Now a Schalke win is the lock of the year
Maybe I'm just bad luck for your business.You jinxed my game man....
Now a Schalke win is the lock of the year
Or maybe the Arsenal defense is so stupid, my grandma could easily play with them. Fck this shit.
2:2 FT after 2:0. Now that's a push here and I'm pissed. Definitely pissed. What a fcked up thing.Thx guys
One early pick for the CL, maybe I'll have another one later, not sure right now. As you can see on the odds I'm also not sure on this one, but it smells like value to me, so I have to take it.
CL, Schalke - Arsenal, Arsenal AHC+0 @3.51 3/10 (Pinnacle)
21 wins, 18 losses, 5 push -----> +16.53 units
ha yeah got ex-girlfriends with accounts on StanJames and Skybet! Always makes me laugh when they text me sayin they've got messages off gambling companies asking to verify account!Normal for successfull punters. You need a lot of friends and relatives
I know man, this shit is too funnyha yeah got ex-girlfriends with accounts on StanJames and Skybet! Always makes me laugh when they text me sayin they've got messages off gambling companies asking to verify account!
Chile Cup, Union Temuco - CD Huachipato, over 3 @2.09 (Pinnacle) 2.5/10
Hit over 3 @ 2,25 in Braga - Man U.
Nice oneHit over 3 @ 2,25 in Braga - Man U.
Now I want the little guys from Chile to go crazy for goals in about 45 minutes and make some extra cash
It took some time to get these goals but they came, and that is important. Don't know if I should go with you in Chile. Look what happend yesterday.Nice one
Now I want the little guys from Chile to go crazy for goals in about 45 minutes and make some extra cashWhat's your % on the Chilean game?
Still can't believe the awful beat on the Arsenal bet yesterday. Brutal. Good luck on this game!
Couldn't find a line for Over 3... took them over 2.5. Shame. 3 in the first half. Good play!
At the moment I posted it (~2min after I played it) Pinnacle had a line for the over 3. Didnt they anymore when you were looking?
But whatever, your over 2.5 cashed easily, nice one
We are at 2:1 at halftime, so give us one more my little friends from Chile and we can ca$h in.
Last edited by zizoudane10; 11-07-12 at 05:56 PM. Reason: Typo
Good luck. Maybe you have some of those valuebets for tomorrow.At the moment I posted it (~2min after I played it) Pinnacle had a line for the over 3. Didnt they anymore when you were looking?
But whatever, your over 2.5 cashed easily, nice one
We are at 2:1 at halftime, so give us one more my little friends from Chile and we can ca$h in.
Good night everybody.
Thx man, I will have a closer look into tomorrows card in the morning. Maybe some EL picks coming up, we will see. Good night!
4:1 FT+2.725 units
22 wins, 18 losses, 5 push -----> +19.255 units
Decided to have another try with the over 3 in SJ. Last time it was a lousy game, but I still think both teams are more than capable of scoring. Only small though this time, because I don't trust myself :P
USA MLS PLAY OFFS, SJ Earthquakes - LA Galaxy, over 3 @2.3 (Pinnacle) 2/10
3 goals after 38 minutes for LA and we already have a freeroll. Gotta love that. One more guys, one more
Played the O2.5. Hope you hit four.
Thx pal, glad you cashed in already
SJ had some pretty nice chances, too, hit the post etc, I think should score at least once. Let's go for it
I doubt we are going to see another one now, but hey, a miracle may happen
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