[WillyBoy]

As the most frequently cited source for Covid 19 “projections” by the White House, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), is the closest we can get to “official” numbers on just how bad the Trump-Virus will become. Currently IHME’s death projection for the U.S. by October 1^st (when it’s believed the 2^nd wave will begin) is 175,168. This number, as are IHME’s numbers below, are based in part on past performance, as well as on a set of informed assumptions about political and medical responses to the continuing pandemic.

My own projections are based solely on past performance, which accounts for the number variations – in some cases, very wide variations – but, in general, mine are the more optimistic numbers, as I don’t believe Americans can get much dumber than they’ve been thus far.

Anomalous numbers: The largest variation in projections is Florida’s, where – apparently – IHME sees stupidity running rampant the next few months. Texas is another, where IHME sees a poor response, but I tend to view both the governor and Texans in general, as performing better than how IHME sees them doing. On the other hand, I’ve seen no evidence that makes me think Maryland’s response will improve a single iota, but IHME projects a miniscule increase, and that’s the same for Virginia. In terms of percentage increase, IHME’s projection for Arkansas of a 266% jump in Trump-Virus deaths is a little hard to credit, while projection variations for the rest of the southern states seem minimal.

[flyingillini]

I think there will be 15-20 million deaths by the time we are all said and done.

[Foxx]

Willy changing up the color scheme. Impressive.

[Foxx]

I think there will be 15-20 million deaths by the time we are all said and done.

Globally? Or USA?

[WillyBoy]

Globally? Or USA?

I’m sure he means “globally”, but those kind of numbers can be achieved only if it mutates beyond the mitigating capacity of a vaccine that I’m certain will be available in late 2020 or early 2021. The Spanish Flu, if I recall correctly, mutated twice into more virulent strains, but today we – globally speaking - are far better equipped to deal with such an eventuality. However, and speaking as an American, I’m less optimistic that we will be able to avoid unnecessary deaths in the immediate future. Americans, everywhere, are proceeding with the kind of reckless stupidity that puts drunk drivers behind the wheel. Bottom line: half a million dead by xmas is completely doable.