and thats a winner
a rather easy one at that
knowwhaaMsay'n?
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06-07-17 04:57 PM #56561
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06-07-17 04:58 PM #56562
Hi PerfectGrape, (did I pronounce that right??) Welcome to the thread
Originally Posted by PerfectGrape
You seem pretty good at this betting stuff
Hope to see more of you
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06-07-17 04:59 PM #56563
Points Awarded:
KVB gave DiggityDaggityDo 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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06-07-17 05:12 PM #56564
Grapes, did you win or lose?
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06-07-17 05:22 PM #56565
The sharp forecast has Golden State winning 113-111. The public gauge says Golden State wins 119-111.
The Total is between those numbers and we’ve seen it move upward, toward the gauge on what’s likely that public buying. The spread is a bit closer to the forecast now, but again has moved toward the gauge on likely public pressure. Actually, that spread has moved significantly from the opener of Cleveland -2.
I think the books have anticipated the heavy betting on the Cleveland moneyline. Sure, if it’s GS, thinks the public, then it’s a cover. But if Lebronda has his back against the wall, he’s out for a win.
This hasn’t skewed the moneyline as much as we would think and the pressure to -3.5 and the moneyline with it seem in line. I think it’s strange, but perhaps there are some serious GS moneyline bets down. After all, getting the Golden State warriors for better than -160 seems like a great deal.
But it’s not good enough for the forecast. While the non-predictive public gauge seems virtually unchanged over the last three games, the sharp forecast has closed the gap for Cleveland at home. The true no vig line for Golden state is much closer to -115. The nature of push rates is often nebulous because of the argument about which stats to use, but that’s a good rough point.
In fact, the Cleveland moneyline is what shows to have value and betting value at that. This is cause for concern. If the focus is on Lebronda getting that win, and the market adds value to that bet, then it would take one of the cheapest GS moneylines in a long time to offset the bets.
It’s difficult to tell which side of the coin will fall. The cheapest GS moneylines all season resulted in GS wins. In late March they were 2 point favorites to OKC, and killed them. A week later they were actually underdogs to Houston and San Antonio, both Golden State wins.
They don’t lose often and I can see a contrarian trying to bounce that trend. The record setters, the best of the best, the dynasties, etc., tend to be the ones to spoil those bets. Remember the Tiger Woods effect and Tom Brady as well?
The Cleveland upset is the bet to make but clearly, it comes with peril as a lot of folks trying to see a bounce are making it. When we look at opening lines for the following games we already see an adjusting Golden State as a -5 as early betting drove it from a pick ‘em. Should they make it back to Cleveland for game 6, Cleveland is still favored, but betting is going to GS. This sort of tells us Cleveland can still matchup at some point.
It’s tough to tell, I would imagine Cleveland will play a defensive game at one point and slow the scoring down for an Under, but is it really being patient to jump on it in the first game at home? Metrics showing a “patience” factor, not unlike a due factor, but dealing more with groups of money, indicate it wouldn’t be patient at all. Yet, sometimes, the early bird gets the worm.
Such indecision and things like “sort of” leads to a pass for this game. If Cleveland gets the much anticipated win, then I missed it.
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06-07-17 05:32 PM #56566
Another problem with the NBA Finals at this point is that there is little opportunity left. There were a few big payouts already these playoffs and with the tease of last years Finals comeback still looming, it doesn't look too good for a Cleveland underdog settlement. That first game of the series should of shown a settlement, and if it didn't then, I doubt we see it in game 3 tonight.
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06-07-17 05:45 PM #56567
In a trade off I'm getting some special MLB plays from a friend for the month of June.
Not counting today, the numbers are up over 3.5 units for June. That includes a day that was 0-4.
Since going 0-4, the plays went 6-1.
Here are today's plays and prices he already locked in...
New York Yankees (Sabathia) -114 Baltimore (Miley) -145 Milwaukee (Nelson) -126 Colorado (Freeland) +101 Arizona (Greinke) -190
I got these this morning so prices have changed and looking at the market now, don't pay more than -200 for Zona (based on the numbers).
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06-07-17 05:45 PM #56568
Grapes always loses
even when he wins
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06-07-17 05:46 PM #56569
Reported Originally Posted by KVB
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06-07-17 05:46 PM #56570
I'll post them sooner each day, I was just taking a little time off this first week of June, being a little lazy.
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06-07-17 05:47 PM #56571
Originally Posted by Fidel_CashFlow
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06-07-17 05:48 PM #56572
Originally Posted by Fidel_CashFlow
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06-07-17 05:52 PM #56573
Originally Posted by KVB
i want to make her squeal
squeal like a walrus
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06-07-17 05:57 PM #56574
lol I never even thought of it like that, with those plays. He's got some winning numbers right now and he's passing them over. Let's see how he does.
I'm betting with him, but in a side roll. I'm also getting betpoints down as well. Maybe I'll put them in one of those contests.
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06-07-17 05:59 PM #56575
Chilling at my moms tonight
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06-07-17 06:04 PM #56576
Originally Posted by Fidel_CashFlow
Nomination(s):This post was nominated 2 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Fidel_CashFlow, and KVB
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06-07-17 06:04 PM #56577
Is it just me or does Adam Silver look like Steve Jobs AFTER he died of AIDS
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06-07-17 06:07 PM #56578
cavs win tonight guaranteed
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06-07-17 06:11 PM #56579
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06-07-17 06:13 PM #56580
People who cheer for a fraud like Kevin Durant were raped by their Aunts
guaranteed
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06-07-17 06:13 PM #56581
Originally Posted by PerfectGrape
WagerType: Date: Team: Risking / To Win Ticket#: STRAIGHT BET Jun 07 NBA [706] CLEVELAND +140 175.00 SBR / 245.00 SBR 3520268
My trivia win is with you.
Points Awarded:
Fidel_CashFlow gave KVB 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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06-07-17 06:14 PM #56582
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06-07-17 06:15 PM #56583
I blame Jr Smith
hes gotta be their weed man
no other reasonable answer for him being on the team
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06-07-17 06:19 PM #56584
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06-07-17 06:19 PM #56585
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06-07-17 06:22 PM #56586
Originally Posted by Fidel_CashFlow
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06-07-17 06:23 PM #56587
welcome aboard Originally Posted by KVB
WagerType: Date: Team: Risking / To Win Ticket#: STRAIGHT BET Jun 07 NBA [706] CLEVELAND +140 175.00 SBR / 245.00 SBR 3520268
My trivia win is with you.
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06-07-17 06:29 PM #56588
I'd like to think the Cavs win tonight..........
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06-07-17 06:37 PM #56589
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06-07-17 06:46 PM #56590
Unbelievable. Originally Posted by PerfectGrape
But true, watch those Cavs lose by a bucket and cover he spread.
Leading us all to slaughter...
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06-07-17 06:47 PM #56591
cavs winning is wishful thinking
those crowded train videos are crazy, never knew how crazy trains are in other countriesLast edited by PerfectGrape; 06-07-17 at 06:51 PM.
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06-07-17 06:52 PM #56592
everyone eats kfc for christmas in japan
From December 1974, KFC Japan began to promote fried chicken as a Christmas meal, with its long running "Kentucky for Christmas" (Japanese: クリスマスはケンタッキー) advertising campaign.[4] Eating KFC as a Christmas time meal has since become a widely practised custom in Japan.[5][6][7]
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06-07-17 06:52 PM #56593
And finally
Points Awarded:
KVB gave Fidel_CashFlow 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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06-07-17 06:55 PM #56594
Originally Posted by PerfectGrape
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06-07-17 06:56 PM #56595
Originally Posted by PerfectGrape
everyone eats kfc for christmas in japan
From December 1974, KFC Japan began to promote fried chicken as a Christmas meal, with its long running "Kentucky for Christmas" (Japanese: クリスマスはケンタッキー) advertising campaign.[4] Eating KFC as a Christmas time meal has since become a widely practised custom in Japan.[5][6][7]
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