Originally Posted by
KVB
We are only in week 4 of the NFL but I think I’ll suggest a play tonight. For tonight’s game my early (not necessarily really sharp) metrics indicate Seattle winning this game with 31 points to Detroit’s 20. Seattle just plain has a better offense and defense. This line opened with Seattle -9.5 and none of us should be surprised that it is at 10, as it seems much of the public is on Seattle.
There has been much discussion on SBR about consensus numbers and bet totals often listed on the internet. Bettors often like to see who the “public” is on and think this information can help them. Sometimes it can.
I’ve posted a few times about how these numbers don’t have to be accurate and the sources often can be questioned. I’ve mentioned that nobody has any responsibility towards the accuracy of those numbers.
Let me clarify something. Many websites put up “consensus numbers” which is simply a tally of posts, contests, etc. of where the traffic on that website, or group of websites, would be betting, if they were placing money.
I shouldn’t have to explain too much about the difference between what one would play, if one were betting, and what one would actually play if money was at stake. Often times there is a difference between picking a team for fun or contest, and actually putting your money where your typing fingers are.
This difference makes many of these consensus numbers worthless. A more valuable piece of information would be what bettors are actually buying. SportsInsights offers a service that gives you the actual percentage of bets placed, not the dollar amount, for each game. When it says 65% of the bets are on Seattle, it means that 65% of the tickets at the participating books are on Seattle. I think ESPN may use them.
One way bettors use this information is when comparing it to line movements. In general, the betting marketplace comprises a large betting public betting a small percentage of the money. They write a lot of tickets, but the amounts are small when compared to the small percentage of bettors and syndicates plays that make up most of the actual money wagered.
So when, say, 75% of the tickets written are on the home team, but that line moves towards the road team, we have what they call Reverse Line Movement. Usually, but not always, this indicates larger money plays, which moved the line, are being made by bettors from that small percentage group.
The books understand this and often use line movements to not only protect themselves from risk, but also to confuse bettors trying to navigate the marketplace. Books work with oddsmakers to even use movement to draw money, or make it flow, a specific direction.
So what does this have to do with tonight’s game? This thread has been about analyzing the marketplace. You have seen me explain things about the market, as well as use unnamed metrics to guide the posts and plays. While I have Seattle winning by 10 points, I have metrics that indicate this moneyline will fail. Further, based on analysis that goes much further than this game alone, I believe the books have employed some of the techniques above over the weeks to basically sell plays to bettors, in what seems to be preparation for a big upset. One example would the attempt to sell certain groups the San Francisco 49ers, when they played Green Bay. Indeed, GB had a rougher time in Santa Clara than their other games and SF tightened up a bit from their earlier debacles. But in the end the favorite prevailed.
There are other examples, and other techniques used, but my point is that a larger picture indicates the markets are hiding an upset. When working with the NFL, sniffing out these upsets can require far more patience than the other markets. In general, the required patience for the NFL is much more than other leagues and, to make matters worse, the markets offer temptation after temptation to try a bettor’s patience.
My metrics indicate patience is running thin for certain results and a 10 point line is designed to force certain bettors to pass on the side and lay almost prohibitively on the obvious choice, Seattle to win. As far as public and sharp money are concerned, it stands to reason most all of them like the Seattle to win this game.
Sure, it’s fine do go with the sharps over the long haul, but we’ve seen, a few times now, my market analysis make the sharp line just a little sharper…something I addressed very earlier in this thread.
I have seen this process develop over nearly 4 full weeks and have gone ahead with my market metrics and look to settle the brewing situation with a result of Detroit Lions +10 and +450 over the Seattle Seahawks.
It’s not bold because it’s not the CFL, but some turnovers leading to points for Detroit and a potentially struggling Seattle offense could make this a close enough game. Shit, the NFL has many ways to bring us the unlikely 10 point upset, let’s see if they use on tonight.
Good Luck...
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