what are teh plays for the US elections?
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10-27-14 10:37 AM #2591
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10-27-14 10:48 AM #2592
Besides the
fourfive I already posted?
I'm really more interested in Over/Unders at this point that race matchups, but no US books seem to be having it.Last edited by NunyaBidness; 10-27-14 at 10:55 AM.
Points Awarded:
Beelzebubzy gave NunyaBidness 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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10-27-14 11:27 AM #2593
Election bets posted so far:
Kay Hagan wins NC -185 5dimes
Ernst wins Iowa -170 5dimes
Cotton wins Arkansas -325 Bookmaker
Democrats retain senate majority +200 at Sportsbook
Thought I posted this one, but maybe I didn't:
Orman wins Kansas +115 Bookmaker
The sportsbook line is still available, the rest have gotten worse, but I still like Hagan and Ernst.
Added today:
Rounds wins SD -900 5d
Shaheen wins NH -220 5d
Lundergan wins KY +500 5d
Begich wins AK +315 bookmaker
Nunn wins GA +120 bookmaker
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10-27-14 11:32 AM #2594
Gotta play this one.
Originally Posted by NunyaBidness
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10-27-14 11:35 AM #2595
I liked it better at +450, but didn't post it because I was hoping someone else would open it before it moved. Originally Posted by Beelzebubzy
Oh, NM, I see what you're saying.
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10-27-14 03:34 PM #2596
Crash and burn. Originally Posted by Rubber Guard
10.5 pts for skins on bovada???
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10-27-14 03:58 PM #2597
Originally Posted by Rubber Guard
yes please
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10-27-14 04:29 PM #2598
Cowboys on the money line.. Risking alot to win a little... $475 to win $100 The safe play I hope.....
GAMBLING GOAL QUESTION????
My gambling goal is to win $100 a day.. That's $3000 a month, $36,500 a year.. X 3 accounts... I've been reaching these totals since the beginning of the year on one account, coming up a bit short on the other 2 but that only happened in the last two months......
If I'm way up on one account then I take a bet like this above $475 to win $100... Other 2 accounts I don't do that...
Any of you gamblers set goals or set guide lines like this???Last edited by JIBBBY; 10-27-14 at 04:37 PM.
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10-27-14 04:39 PM #2599
Why would you? Would only lead to chasing and bad bets in the long run most likely. Find that value, Jibber.
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10-27-14 04:45 PM #2600
So if I make 100 bucks and then joey Odessa gives me Conor at +200, do you not bet that?
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10-27-14 04:47 PM #2601
jibby u got to do a lil line shoppin. u consistently hav terrible lines. read up on kelly
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10-27-14 04:50 PM #2602
serious question. whts up with all night gms goin over? i thought it was just short term "variance" but now im wondering if im missing something. my friend is killin me on these over bets
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10-27-14 04:54 PM #2603
I bet the overs. But before I did that I gave out high fives and I banged am Asian lady named Luck or maybe it was Ruck. I'm not sure Originally Posted by getlucky2win
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10-27-14 04:55 PM #2604
Mirin is right, when i started doing this with my soccer betting my results gradually went to shiiiit! Got to caught up trying to meet my target and as im a degen inevitably ended up chasing. Now i have a bankroll like ronpauls and have to get free dentist work off my good buddy Bubzy. Life's a bitch Originally Posted by JIBBBY
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10-27-14 05:18 PM #2605
lol. is that broad in vegas? i need under as usual tonite Originally Posted by Beelzebubzy
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10-27-14 06:23 PM #2606
Value is king I know.. Every dollar counts... You guys are right.. I need to tweak my gambling goals and figure out a different way to target goals with account balances.. Thanks for the input fellas...
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10-27-14 06:31 PM #2607
i dont understand why you care about separate account balances? shouldn't the overall number matter and nothing else? Originally Posted by JIBBBY
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10-27-14 06:43 PM #2608
Well, if you lose a lot on one account, its gotta be due sometime. So make a lot of small losing bets, and then make a huge one when its due. Isn't that the point of having multiple accounts?
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10-27-14 06:58 PM #2609
My reasoning - Trying not to put all my eggs in one basket so to speak.. When it comes to the big payouts at the end of the year it would be nice to do it on all 3 accounts evenly and not just one with a massive balance.. I can live with not getting paid out on 1 account when the other 2 are funding.. Originally Posted by PunisherIND
Like I said I need to do some re-thinking with my set goals in place with all 3 bookies.. I should go for value regardless of trying to keep near equal account balances.....
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10-27-14 07:41 PM #2610
Vaughany makes a good point about not getting caught up in attempting to hit specific targets. It really can throw you off. The best thing you can do is put in as much effort as you can researching your bets, breaking them down, watching tape, and taking time to think about all the possible outcomes of a fight and their individual probabilities.
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10-27-14 08:28 PM #2611
Originally Posted by JIBBBY
Terrible.
My goal is to put in as much volume in positive expectation bets as I can get. Daily results mean nothing. I lose > 50% of days.
The goal is to have more money at the end of the year then I did at the beginning. The days, weeks, and even months in between are just noise. August-September I went on the biggest downswing of my life. Was losing at MMA, sports, poker, and blackjack, first time I think I'd ran bad at everything at the same time. If I had tried to get even on a daily basis, I could've easily lost everything. Gotta just keep on grinding. If you're making +EV bets it'll turn around.
But, to be honest Jibbbs, I don't think you're making +EV bets, I think you're just gambling. And there's nothing wrong with that. But pretending you're going to make a steady income out of this, especially with silliness like "bankroll management" is only going to get you into trouble.
If you can't define where your edge comes from on any given bet, then you don't have one.
Also, as Pun said, your individual bankrolls on different sites don't matter. I bust accounts all the time, its meaningless.Points Awarded:
omalley21 gave NunyaBidness 10 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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10-27-14 08:30 PM #2612
Variance. Originally Posted by getlucky2win
NFL season is so small, everything gets overanalyzed.
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10-27-14 08:34 PM #2613
Also, this is basically a martingale, which is something most every gambler discovers as a get-rich scheme at some point in their life, they all think they've invented it. Originally Posted by JIBBBY
Its as such, you bet $5 on red in roulette, if you lose you now double your bet. If it wins you're still up $5. If you lose you just keep doubling your bet until it wins, eventually you'll be up $5, right?
Is this a good strategy? Why or why not?
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10-27-14 08:44 PM #2614
On a fundamental level, it can't work for guys like Ron_Paul, whose bankrolls are less than $5. Originally Posted by NunyaBidness
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10-27-14 09:19 PM #2615
Thanks for the input Nuns and that's why I posted this question on your thread.. You are the voice of reason
I am just a gambler that is continuing to learn and I do need to pay attention to EV'sl!!!! Thanks...
This Cowboys game is making me nervous being just a gambler tonight!!!!... Cowboys lose to the Rival Skins at home with a suspect QB at the helm and I may retire again from NFL..
Down 10-7 in the 3rd...
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10-27-14 10:51 PM #2616
Well the safe play bit me right in the ass!!!! OUCH!!!
Tony Romo fail again what else is new?? They should have ran the ball more I thought.. Same old story with Dallas.. Pretender or Contender is an easy call... Pretender at 6-2 now!!!!
Steam roller hit me... It happens....
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10-27-14 11:00 PM #2617
cowboys blowup my tsrs again. had sea when dal went there and won. my local is so lucky postin these gms at 8.5 and winnin. lost pats tz vs jets as well
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10-27-14 11:05 PM #2618
Cash and Earn you mean... Rubber and Pun good call..... Originally Posted by Rubber Guard
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10-27-14 11:06 PM #2619
The fish gotta win sometimes, otherwise they'll stop playing. Originally Posted by getlucky2win
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10-27-14 11:15 PM #2620
If you have access to the square line set at bovada, my serious advice would be, to hammer the hell out of them whenever possible, and never bet ANYTHING else. Don't touch props, futures, anything. You want to keep your access to those lines as long as you can. Could make a living just blind-betting them. Originally Posted by Rubber Guard
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10-27-14 11:24 PM #2621
Sabres +1.5 -155 for the contest
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10-28-14 07:37 AM #2622
Some winnerz for ya fellaz in German Cup tonight...
Bielefeld/Hertha Over 1 1st half @ -119... every Bielefeld home game has had at least 1 goal this season, lines are constantly off
Dresden/Bochum Over 1 1st half @ +105 has value as well
Hoffenheim/FSV Frankfurt tomorrow should have plenty of goalsPoints Awarded:
omalley21 gave Vaughany 10 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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10-28-14 08:49 AM #2623
Trailing.
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10-28-14 09:03 AM #2624
That meant to say "at least 1 goal in 1st half this season!"
That Bielefeld game is the one I'd go big on, it should be Over 1.25 goals @ -119, not just Over 1
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10-28-14 09:08 AM #2625
Hah, no matter, not a single US book seems to have 1H lines on this league.
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