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Knicks - 225 / Pacers +190 Series Price.
Pacers are major value as a 2:1 series underdog.
Forget my nerdy analytical tables and what not.
I just watched pretty much every game of the Pacers and Knicks series.
This is just my eye test opinion; the Knicks are not demonstratively better than Indy.
New York has home court advantage, I get all that, I was expecting the series opener to be New York -160 no higher than -170.
Not -225
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So take Pacers? Or you like NY but there’s no value in taking them?
Degen wants to know!
Nashy, you are 100% right. I expected this to be much shorter. Would expect it to go down.Originally Posted by stevenash
I follow these teams closely. IND is legit. But they may be viewed as a one-way team: Offense but not much DEF.
If you want a player to view, look at NYK Mitchell Robinson. If he's healthy, he's a great player. But he's been dinged, he's been in-and-out.
Nashy, will check back later on this one. Will think about it.
I'll give you a funny one. Have watched Pacer games:
*This TJ McConnell guy is a solid guard for ball handling and distribution. But he has a broke-jumper.
...This is important b/c teams sag off him and give him the 3ptr. This is huge in the modern game, b/c TJ actually constricts the spacing of other players.
I've thought about it. As of right now, I'm passing Gm1 and the Series bet.
I'd love to be on IND. They're LONGER. If this was a prize fight, we'd say that the Pacers have a longer reach.
Thibs has been cheating with a smallish lineup. Hart is an undersized 4-man. Knick bench was unusually short last game. Thibs played only 7 guys. Bogdanovic was out, and Achiuwa did not play.
Mitchell Robinson is back. But he hasn't been consistent upon return. He's a factor, b/c he's the 2nd legit big-man on the Knick roster.
If Robinson was deemed unfit, I'd quickly tilt to IND. As is, I could say that BOTH of these teams are overrated:
*The Knick/Sixer series was incredibly close. Net Pt Diff of +1pt to the Knicks. Embiid labored, and the Knicks still struggled to put the Sixers away. Game2 was decided on a blown call, when the foul on Maxey was ignored.
*The Bucks are frankly not very good. Lillard had the insane 1h of game 1. But he'll shoot you of more games than he'll win. Pacers were fortunate to be lined up with an injured Buck unit. Bucks were not much resistance, and Portis helped out by getting tossed in Game 4.
If I have any takeaway from the Eastern series:
*I love my Boston chalk future to win the East.
...They can win it even if Porzingis doesn't play again in the next two series.
...BOSTON's bench actually could challenge IND in a series. I truly believe that.
...Horford/Pritchard/Hauser/Kornet are good players. The Porzingis absence has not yet been felt.
*Knick/Pacer winner into the Eastern Conf Finals is going to feel light.
...Going deep into the NBA Playoffs, these teams figure to look like Light-weights.
...Knicks are under-sized. They've over-achieved as much as any team this season.
...Pacers have good players. But they're mostly about getting comfortable on Offense + hitting shots.
...Pacers lack bulk and defensive intensity. And I think they're at least a year away.
...One funny observation. Both teams have a shooter that Opposing Coaches will beg to shoot: Hart (NY) and McConnell (IND). Teams will sag off + beg them to shoot 3's.
Right now, I'm considering using Indy at +200 for the series, then I can adjust accordingly from game to game.
I think Indy can be a handful for the MSG yahoos.
I'm a TAG spot dog player.
Anytime I can get +200 on a wager I think should be priced at +150 give or take, usually I'll bet it.
Brunson and Haliburton are studs, the two PG's cancel each other out, there is no clear advantage there.
I don't like to throw around the word 'elite' but Turner as evolved into a top-notch center.
No knock-on Hartenstein, Mitchell Robinson, or anybody else Thibs wants to throw out there into the pivot, they can't hold a candle to Indy's front court with Siakam, Turner, and Toppin.
While there's no clear advantage on either point guard, Pacers have the better front court.
I really do like the Knicks hybrid rotation.
When Randall went down that left a major void at PF.
Thibs used what he had and started one true PG, one true Center, and three very good shooting guards and small forwards.
(Hart, DiVincenzo, and Anunoby)
I love the way Anunoby plays defense too.
I'm not saying the Pacers will sweep in four.
I wouldn't be surprised if NYK won in six games.
I can see this thing going to the limit, imagine a game seven featuring Boston and New York.
Holy Cash Cow Batman
What I am saying, and this my opinion only
-225 is an insult to the Pacers.
Indy has a very real chance of advancing, there's no big talent gap,
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All that said u r missing from he big thing here …
the nba wants New York to advance
I went out of my way to make that point three times in the past two days Johnny.
I'm hardly a steel colander wearing conspiracy kook, but I know firsthand how money makes things happen, and if it's Boston and NYK in that conference final, I believe all the executives involved will make beau coup dollars, and it's not like the NBA and the Knicks have been involved in some pretty squirrelly events involving ping pong balls and a really tall center from Georgetown.
Yeah, I'm not using the 'rigged' word, I do think Silver and Tatum (The other Tatum) have the ways and means to influence things.
"Money doesn't talk it swears obscenities"
'It's All Right Ma (I'm Only Bleeding)'
-Bob Dylan
How's things up there in the Peninsula State Johnny?
Last edited by stevenash; 05-03-24 at 10:30 AM.
All good Nash
gonna get my kayak out soon …
I like Pacers 4-2 +500, 4-3 +750. I don't think either of these teams puts the series away before game 6 or 7 though.
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Is it really an insult though ?
If this went to Game 7, what do you think the odds would be ?
I'd say right around -225 Knicks
Finding even better prices now. Will probably lock these in at some point though.
I've been multi-tasking like a bunny rabbit all day, haven't had a chance to comment on your astute points.
You make some good counterpoints as well
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Thx, Nashy. I've posted my comments in a few threads:
*Wound up taking a small flyer on IND Series +227.
...# is just too good.
...Pacers aren't known for their defense. My counter is that they're LONG.
...That will inhibit shooters, even if they're not great defenders.
From watching a lot of NBA, I'll give a minority opinion. I think Brunson is one of the most over-hyped players in the league.
...Solid pro, but he also has his hands on the ball every possession.
...He's not an overwhelming talent. I'll be watching shoot over long arms in this series.
Definitely going to be a long series. Both good coaches, pacers way more depth but knicks starters are accustomed to playing high minutes.
Well if the Knicks have the refs on their side too then it's a wrap
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Yep. Pacers should feel good about some things.
Knicks got only a few pts from their bench. Knicks shot well on the 3's today.
From the NBA site
QUESTION: Upon review, was the kicked ball call against Aaron Nesmith deemed to be correct?
ZARBA: On the floor we felt that would be a kicked ball violation. Post game review did show that it hit the defender’s hand, which would be legal.
QUESTION: Could the Pacers have been allowed to challenge the kick ball call?
ZARBA: A kicked ball violation is not reviewable and not subject to the coach’s challenge. The three things that teams can challenge are fouls, goaltends and out of bounds.
https://official.nba.com/pool-report...t-knicks-game/
Halliburton - 36 minutes. 2 rebounds, 6 points.
Brunson - 43 points
Halliburton making $200 million and playing like a guy in the GLeague.
Halliburton cooled off significantly in the 2nd half of the regular season. I would put him in a class below Brunson
Turner got screwed.
Damn. Would have been a nice road win. Pacers were right there.
he did it to himself doing that knowing he could give the refs a chance to call something weak and ensure the Knicks win ... just let someone shoot the ball to win you already blew the 94-85 lead in the 4th
the odds for Brunson to score 20+ in game one were -3500 he is on a heater
MJ only scored 40+ 4 games in a row once in the playoffs although he did it in the NBA Finals
Pretty disappointing:
1) I question the Pacer hunger a bit. Had the Knicks down 10 + ready to wilt.
2) I agree with Stan Van. McConnell should have been in the game the L5 minutes.
3) Carlisle not happy. Johnny may have been right:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...ba-source-says
We'll see if anything comes of the Carlisle complaint. Of course, it will lead to nothing.
Game 2 will go down as frustrating. Knicks are accumulating injuries:
*Robinson - OUT.
*Anunoby - Left last game. Status? McBride back into Starting lineup.
*Brunson - Returned in 2h. That was huge. Props to that guy.
Knicks are now super-thin. Anunoby exit would leave them with bare-bones.
What's the difference between the NBA and WWE?
WWE admits it's rigged.
Yeah, $$ at play.
Honestly, I didn't see too many bad calls:
1) They overturned the Hartenstein Double-dribble. You don't see that too often. But it 100% looked like correct call.
2) Brunson return was the big story. Would have liked to see McConnell up against him. Tougher defender.
How can the Pacers be -7 Home for Game 3?
Crazy. It's like the 0-2 Homer angle is not just a fantasy. It's truth, as if the refs have been given the script.
New refs and Brunson probably more hurt than we think + OG out(not confirmed).
Hart is pushing defenders in the back on nearly every offensive rebound. Even being a Knicks fan I agree with Carlisle that this has been too one sided with the calls. Brunson reminding me some of the old Harden in the sense that he does the head jerks to get calls. Takes away from some of the excitement of being up 2-0 seeing how many calls the Knicks are getting vs Pacers.
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A HC normally gets fined for calling out refs. However, if he's following league protocol, I get it.
Gm 3 = Ind -7. The series price is crazy. Down 2-0, and IND is only slightly fatter than they were b4 Gm1.
As for how it plays out?
1) Does the Carlisle protest = makeup calls in Gm3?
...Not necessarily. Knicks have been the tougher team. Honestly, if you think has some live bodies like Achiuwa/Burks, +7 = value in Gm3.
2) What is the toll of the injuries?
...Brunson maybe skips Gm3 to heal up?
...Anunoby is solid, but he's not irreplaceable.
...I mentioned that the big one is Robinson. I can't believe the Knicks get away w/ such a small lineup.
Who saw that first half coming?
Talk about a bitch slapping.
See my pick thread. See how close I was.
Good job.
SBR Andy gave stevenash 10 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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